Food security governance in complex environments: how digital technologies can enhance the stability of agricultural food systems?

Introduction The Chinese agricultural food system is confronted with multiple complex environmental challenges, such as extreme climate events and market fluctuations. Digital technology (DT), as a key element in reshaping the resilience of the entire value chain, provides important support for enhancing the stability of agricultural food systems (SAFS) and ensuring stable food consumption. Methods Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model and a moderation model to examine the effect of DT on the SAFS. It further investigates regional heterogeneity in this effect and the moderating role of the urbanization rate (UR). Results First, DT has a significant positive effect on the SAFS. Second, the effect of DT exhibits regional heterogeneity, with a particularly pronounced positive effect in western China. Third, UR positively moderates the relationship between DT and the SAFS. Discussion The findings suggest that government departments should strengthen policy coordination and institutional support for the digital transformation of the agricultural food system, improve digital infrastructure and data governance, promote coordinated urbanization, and enhance resilience and risk-warning capabilities throughout the agricultural food value chain, thereby improving the capacity of agricultural food systems to cope with external risks and promoting sustainable agricultural development.