[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-1284":3,"related-1284":106},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":23,"tags":25,"primary_topic":31,"secondary_topics":37,"classification":38,"search_phrases":84,"slug":87,"view_count":21,"doi":88,"paper":89,"created_at":105},1284,"Digital agricultural technologies and sustainable agri-food system transformations: a review of global debates and Kenyan realities","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1890516","Digital agriculture is widely promoted as a transformative pathway to achieving food security, productivity, and climate resilience across agri-food systems. Yet in practice, its implementation often reflects conflicting priorities, uneven adoption, and unresolved questions around inclusion, equity, and environmental sustainability. This paper examines how digital agriculture is unfolding in Kenya, one of the most active hubs of agri-digital innovation in sub-Saharan Africa, through a structured review of global academic literature, national policies, and emerging digital initiatives. Framed against broader debates on sustainable agri-food system transformations, the study investigates the types of agricultural development trajectories digital technologies currently support, the ways these technologies are shaped by and involve different actors, and the implications for equity, power, and environmental outcomes. Findings reveal a strong emphasis in Kenyan policies on productivity and commercialization, with digital technologies frequently embedded in efficiency-oriented and market-driven models. However, the review also identifies promising but under-recognized initiatives described as “seeds of change” that reflect inclusive, participatory, and agroecological digital practices. These include platforms that integrate local knowledge, prioritize the needs of smallholder farmers, and redistribute power within agri-food systems. Despite their potential, such efforts remain marginal to dominant science, technology, and innovation strategies due to regulatory gaps, fragmented governance, and limited institutional support. This study contributes to ongoing debates on the direction of agri-food system transformations by aligning Kenya's experiences with global narratives and identifying pathways toward more equitable and sustainable digital futures. It proposes a research and practice agenda to support the co-design and scaling of inclusive digital tools, while calling for institutional reforms to ensure digitalisation promotes equity, resilience, and farmer agency. The paper argues that realizing the transformative potential of digital agriculture requires enabling governance structures, iterative learning mechanisms, and inclusive innovation ecosystems.","数字农业被广泛宣传为实现粮食安全、提高生产力和增强农业粮食系统气候韧性的变革性路径。然而在实践中，其落地实施往往反映出相互冲突的优先事项、不均衡的采纳状况，以及围绕包容性、公平性和环境可持续性尚未解决的关键问题。本文通过对全球学术文献、国家政策和新兴数字倡议的结构化综述，考察数字农业在撒哈拉以南非洲最活跃的农业数字创新中心之一——肯尼亚的推进情况。在可持续农业粮食系统转型的更广泛辩论框架下，本研究探讨了数字技术当前所支撑的农业发展轨迹类型、这些技术如何被不同行动者塑造并吸纳其参与，以及对公平、权力和环境结果的影响。研究发现，肯尼亚政策高度强调生产力和商业化，数字技术往往嵌入以效率为导向和市场驱动的模式之中。然而，综述也识别出一些有前景但未获充分认可的倡议，可称之为“变革的种子”，它们体现了包容性、参与式和农业生态学的数字实践。这些倡议包括整合地方知识、优先考虑小农需求并重新分配农业粮食系统内权力的平台。尽管具有潜力，但由于监管空白、治理碎片化和制度支持有限，这些努力在主流科学、技术和创新战略中仍处于边缘地位。本研究通过将肯尼亚经验与全球叙事相对接，并识别通往更加公平和可持续的数字未来的路径，为当前关于农业粮食系统转型方向的辩论作出贡献。研究提出了一项研究与实践议程，以支持包容性数字工具的共同设计和规模化推广，同时呼吁进行制度性改革，确保数字化促进公平、韧性和农民自主权。本文认为，实现数字农业的变革潜力需要有利的治理结构、迭代学习机制和包容性创新生态系统。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,71,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":22},18,20,13,2,1,"系统综述数字农业在肯尼亚的实践与争议，提出包容性转型路径，对全球南方有参考价值。",[24],{"name":10,"url":6},[26,27,28,29,30],"数字农业","智慧农业","肯尼亚","农业转型","小农",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},"A8","yield-food-security","单产提升与粮食安全","\u002Ftopic\u002Ffield-crops\u002Fyield-food-security","A",[],{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":42},"classified","2026-10-22.2","rules",{"candidates":43,"agricultural_evidence":47},[44,52,59,66,72,78],{"code":45,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":48,"abstract":49,"tags":51},"I1",8,true,[],[26,50],"digital agriculture",[26,27],{"code":32,"score":53,"supported":47,"title":54,"abstract":55,"tags":58},6,[],[56,57],"粮食安全","food security",[],{"code":60,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":62,"abstract":63,"tags":65},"G2",3,[],[64],"smallholder",[],{"code":67,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":68,"abstract":69,"tags":71},"H6",[],[70],"农业生态",[],{"code":73,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":74,"abstract":75,"tags":77},"H7",[],[76],"climate resilience",[],{"code":79,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":80,"abstract":81,"tags":83},"H8",[],[82],"可持续农业",[],[85,86],"农业转型 数字农业 智慧农业 肯尼亚","农业转型 数字农业","农业转型数字农业智慧农业肯尼亚-1284","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1890516",{"doi":88,"openalex_id":90,"authors":91,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":96,"card":97,"direction":103,"ingested_from":104},"W7204761864",[92],{"name":93,"orcid":94},"Nora Ndege","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-2525-9871",0,"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fsustainable-food-systems\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1890516\u002Fpdf",{"tldr":98,"method":99,"finding":100,"direction":101,"opportunity":102},"本文通过肯尼亚案例，审视数字农业在农业食品系统转型中的实际作用与争议。","结构化综述全球文献、国家政策与新兴数字倡议，结合肯尼亚案例。","肯尼亚数字农业侧重效率与市场化，但存在包容性、参与式及生态农业的“变革种子”倡议，却受治理和制度限制","数字乡村与农业信息化","可研究如何通过治理改革和制度支持，将边缘化的包容性数字实践纳入主流，实现公平可持续的农业转型。","智慧农业 \u002F 农业物联网","openalex","2026-09-01T23:30:07.461642Z",{"total":53,"page":21,"page_size":53,"items":107},[108,159,233,310,424,489],{"id":109,"title":110,"url":111,"summary":112,"summary_zh":9,"content":9,"source_name":113,"source_url":111,"published_at":114,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":115,"is_selected":14,"score":116,"score_detail":117,"sources":120,"tags":124,"primary_topic":127,"secondary_topics":128,"classification":129,"search_phrases":142,"slug":145,"view_count":20,"doi":146,"paper":147,"created_at":158},1259,"POLICY BRIEF; Smart Agriculture as a Strategic Instrument for Reducing Urban–Rural Disparities in Land Use Efficiency in Kenya's Coast Region","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.6084\u002Fm9.figshare.33390214","1. Executive SummaryKenya's six coastal counties — Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, and Taita-Taveta — exhibit a persistent and widening gap between the efficiency with which urban land is used (dense, high-value, infrastructure-serviced) and the efficiency with which rural agricultural land is used (extensive, low-input, poorly serviced, and increasingly fragmented). This disparity undermines food security, drives unplanned rural-urban migration, and weakens the region's contribution to national and county development goals, including Vision 2030's economic pillar and the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda's agriculture value chain.Smart and digital agriculture — precision input management, mobile-based extension and market linkage, digital land and tenure records, remote-sensing-based land monitoring, and e-governance of agricultural value chains — offers a credible strategic lever for narrowing this gap without requiring rural land to replicate urban land-use intensity. The comparative and cross-country evidence base (including digital rural construction studies from China, smart territorial restructuring pilots in the EU, and Kenya's own mobile-money and e-extension experience) consistently associates digital agricultural transformation with improved land use efficiency, particularly where digital skills, tenure security, and market access improve together rather than in isolation.This brief argues that Kenya's coast region has the pre-conditions to convert this evidence into practice — mobile penetration, an active devolution architecture, and an existing inter-county coordination body (JKP) — but lacks a shared governance instrument to sequence and finance smart agriculture investment across counties. It proposes the Smart Agriculture Land-Use Convergence Framework (SALCF) as that instrument, structured around six pillars: digital land information and tenure; precision and climate-smart production technology; digital extension and market access; digital and physical infrastructure equity; county-level digital agriculture governance; and blended financing anchored in the existing Blue Finance Mobilisation Model (BFMM). The brief closes with a three-horizon implementation roadmap, an institutional map, an M&E framework built around a Land Use Efficiency Convergence Index, and risk mitigation measures.","Figshare","2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",25,72,{"impact":18,"substance":118,"depth":17,"authority":13,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":119},22,"政策简报聚焦肯尼亚沿海地区智慧农业缩小城乡土地利用效率差距，提出具体框架与路线图，虽为区域研究但具国际参考价值。",[121,122],{"name":113,"url":111},{"name":113,"url":123},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.6084\u002Fm9.figshare.33390214.v1",[27,28,125,126],"土地利用效率","城乡差距",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[],{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":130},{"candidates":131,"agricultural_evidence":47},[132,138],{"code":45,"score":133,"supported":47,"title":134,"abstract":136,"tags":137},15,[135],"smart agriculture",[135,50],[27],{"code":32,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":139,"abstract":140,"tags":141},[],[57],[],[143,144],"土地利用效率 城乡差距 智慧农业 肯尼亚","土地利用效率 城乡差距","土地利用效率城乡差距智慧农业肯尼亚-1259","10.6084\u002Fm9.figshare.33390214",{"doi":146,"openalex_id":148,"authors":149,"venue":113,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":111,"card":153,"direction":103,"ingested_from":104},"W7204718041",[150],{"name":151,"orcid":152},"Martin Otundo Richard","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0007-7973-1250",{"tldr":154,"method":155,"finding":156,"direction":101,"opportunity":157},"提出智慧农业战略框架，缩小肯尼亚沿海城乡土地利用效率差距。","基于比较证据，设计六支柱SALCF框架和分阶段路线图。","智慧农业可缩小城乡土地利用效率差距，需协同数字技能、权属和市场准入。","可研究SALCF框架在发展中国家沿海地区的适用性，或构建土地利用效率收敛指数评估政策效果。","2026-09-01T04:03:11.505087Z",{"id":160,"title":161,"url":162,"summary":163,"summary_zh":164,"content":9,"source_name":165,"source_url":162,"published_at":166,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":167,"score_detail":168,"sources":172,"tags":174,"primary_topic":178,"secondary_topics":179,"classification":180,"search_phrases":210,"slug":213,"view_count":95,"doi":214,"paper":215,"created_at":232},5491,"Analysis of the Impact of Digital Technology on the Resilience of Anhui’s Agricultural Industry Chain: Threshold Effect of Relative Grain Yield","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3390\u002Fsu182010656","Improving the resilience of the agricultural industry chain to frequent external shocks and the intertwined agricultural production risks is critical for ensuring national food security and sustainable agricultural development. Taking the 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province—a major grain-producing region in China—as the research sample, two composite proxy indices were constructed in this study; namely, an agricultural industry chain resilience index built upon aggregate official statistics (rather than direct observed shock-response outcomes) and an index capturing broad rural digital development instead of purely agriculture-specific digital adoption. Based on balanced panel data from 2015 to 2024, two-way fixed-effect, mediation-effect, and panel-threshold models were adopted in this study to examine the association, mediating mechanism, regional heterogeneity, and threshold characteristics conditioned on the relative grain yield. The empirical results show that the rural-oriented digital development index is significantly and robustly positively associated with our composite agricultural industry chain resilience proxy. Although agricultural TFP exhibits a statistically detectable partial mediating pattern in this correlational relationship, the economic magnitude of this indirect channel is extremely modest. As such, this finding indicates a potential theoretical transmission pathway rather than providing definitive empirical evidence for a causal mechanism. The promotion effect exhibits clear regional heterogeneity, with the strongest effect in Northern Anhui, followed by Central Anhui, while the coefficient is positive but insignificant in Southern Anhui. Furthermore, a single-threshold effect of the relative grain yield is identified; that is, the positive association between rural-oriented digital development and resilience proxy cannot be statistically detected when the grain yield remains below the threshold. Only after the agricultural grain yield increases can digital-related rural development release its resilience-related empowering dividends. We note that both composite indices are subject to measurement constraints linked to the local agricultural economic scale and broad rural digital conditions; these limitations are further discussed in the paper. This study provides empirical correlational evidence for the implementation of differentiated digital agriculture policies in major grain-producing provinces.","提升农业产业链对频繁外部冲击与交织叠加的农业生产风险的韧性，对保障国家粮食安全和农业可持续发展至关重要。本研究以中国粮食主产省安徽省的16个地级市为研究样本，构建了两个复合代理指标：一是基于官方统计数据总量（而非直接观测的冲击—响应结果）构建的农业产业链韧性指数，二是刻画农村数字化广泛发展（而非单纯农业领域数字化应用）的指数。基于2015—2024年平衡面板数据，本研究采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和面板门槛模型，考察二者之间的关联、中介机制、区域异质性以及以相对粮食产量为条件变量的门槛特征。实证结果表明，农村导向的数字化发展指数与本研究的农业产业链韧性复合代理指标之间存在显著且稳健的正向关联。尽管农业全要素生产率在这一相关关系中呈现出统计上可检测的部分中介模式，但该间接渠道的经济量级极为有限。因此，这一发现指示的是一种潜在的理论传导路径，而非为因果机制提供确凿的实证证据。其促进效应表现出明显的区域异质性，皖北效应最强，皖中次之，皖南系数为正但不显著。此外，还识别出相对粮食产量的单一门槛效应，即当粮食产量低于门槛值时，农村导向的数字化发展与韧性代理指标之间的正向关联在统计上无法被检测到；只有在农业粮食产量提高之后，数字相关农村发展才能释放其韧性赋能红利。我们注意到，两个复合指数均受到与地方农业经济规模和农村数字化总体状况相关的测度约束；这些局限性在文中进一步讨论。本研究为粮食主产省实施差异化数字农业政策提供了实证相关性证据。","Sustainability","2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",74,{"impact":169,"substance":18,"depth":170,"authority":19,"freshness":46,"relevant":21,"comment":171},16,17,"基于安徽16市面板数据的实证研究，方法规范、结论有区域异质性价值，但属省级学术论文，公共影响有限，适合作为主题页聚合素材而非头条精选。",[173],{"name":165,"url":162},[26,175,56,176,177],"数字乡村","农业产业链韧性","安徽农业",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[],{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":181},{"candidates":182,"agricultural_evidence":47},[183,188,192,199,205],{"code":32,"score":184,"supported":47,"title":185,"abstract":186,"tags":187},7,[],[56,57],[56],{"code":45,"score":184,"supported":47,"title":189,"abstract":190,"tags":191},[],[26,50],[26],{"code":193,"score":53,"supported":47,"title":194,"abstract":195,"tags":198},"G",[],[196,197],"农村发展","rural development",[],{"code":200,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":201,"abstract":202,"tags":204},"J1",[],[203],"农业政策",[],{"code":206,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":207,"abstract":208,"tags":209},"I6",[],[],[175],[211,212],"安徽 农业产业链韧性 数字技术","安徽 粮食产量 数字乡村","安徽农业产业链韧性数字技术-5491","10.3390\u002Fsu182010656",{"doi":214,"openalex_id":216,"authors":217,"venue":165,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":162,"card":227,"direction":101,"ingested_from":104},"W7223005655",[218,221,223,225],{"name":219,"orcid":220},"Lan Ma","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-2468-9917",{"name":222,"orcid":9},"Yuyan Li",{"name":224,"orcid":9},"张国亮",{"name":226,"orcid":9},"Yaoyao Li",{"tldr":228,"method":229,"finding":230,"direction":101,"opportunity":231},"以安徽16市面板数据检验农村数字发展对农业产业链韧性的影响及粮食产量门槛效应。","2015—2024年安徽16市平衡面板，双向固定效应、中介效应与面板门槛模型。","数字发展显著提升产业链韧性，存在粮食相对产量单门槛，且皖北效应最强、皖南不显著。","可细化数字技术指标、引入真实冲击响应韧性测度，并探究门槛形成机制与皖南失效原因。","2026-10-21T23:30:29.219265Z",{"id":234,"title":235,"url":236,"summary":237,"summary_zh":238,"content":9,"source_name":239,"source_url":236,"published_at":240,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":241,"score_detail":242,"sources":245,"tags":247,"primary_topic":251,"secondary_topics":252,"classification":264,"search_phrases":291,"slug":294,"view_count":21,"doi":295,"paper":296,"created_at":309},5308,"Geopolitics and food security: A comprehensive review of emerging risks and responses","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.51200\u002Fjsffs.v2i2.7666","This review paper examines the relationship between geopolitics and food security through a Systematic Literature Review guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses framework. A total of 15 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2015 and 2026 were reviewed to identify emerging geopolitical risks and responses affecting global food systems. The study synthesizes literature on armed conflicts, trade restrictions, climate change, supply chain disruptions, energy market instability, and technological transformation in agriculture. The findings identified four major themes. First, geopolitical conflicts and protectionist trade policies significantly disrupt global food supply chains and increase food price volatility. Second, climate-related shock such as droughts, floods, and extreme weather events intensifies food insecurity, particularly in import-dependent and developing economies. Third, weaknesses in global logistics and energy dependence expose food systems to external shocks and market instability. Fourth, technological innovations, including smart farming, precision agriculture, and digital monitoring systems, play an increasingly important role in strengthening agricultural productivity, improving resource efficiency, and enhancing resilience against geopolitical and environmental uncertainties. The policy implications of this study include strengthening regional food reserves, diversifying import sources, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, promoting the adoption of smart farming technologies, and enhancing institutional cooperation between governments and international organizations. The relevance of smart farming is increasingly evident, as precision agriculture, Internet of Things (IoT)-based monitoring systems, and data-driven farming technologies play a critical role in improving productivity, reducing resource inefficiency, and enhancing food system resilience under geopolitical stress. The study contributes to a broader understanding of how geopolitical dynamics shape food security and provides recommendations for building sustainable, resilient, and technology-driven food systems in an increasingly uncertain global environment.","本文通过遵循系统评价与荟萃分析首选报告条目（Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses）框架的系统文献综述，考察地缘政治与粮食安全之间的关系。共 review 了2015年至2026年间发表的15篇同行评审期刊论文，以识别影响全球粮食系统的新兴地缘政治风险与应对措施。本研究综合了关于武装冲突、贸易限制、气候变化、供应链中断、能源市场不稳定以及农业技术转型的文献。研究结果识别出四大主题。第一，地缘政治冲突和保护主义贸易政策显著扰乱全球粮食供应链并加剧粮食价格波动。第二，干旱、洪水和极端天气事件等气候相关冲击加剧粮食不安全，尤其是在依赖进口的经济体和发展中经济体中。第三，全球物流的薄弱环节和能源依赖使粮食系统暴露于外部冲击和市场不稳定之中。第四，包括智慧农业、精准农业和数字监测系统在内的技术创新，在增强农业生产力、提高资源效率以及增强应对地缘政治和环境不确定性的韧性方面发挥着日益重要的作用。本研究的政策启示包括加强区域粮食储备、多元化进口来源、投资气候韧性农业、促进智慧农业技术的采用，以及加强政府与国际组织之间的制度合作。智慧农业的相关性日益明显，因为精准农业、基于物联网（IoT）的监测系统和数据驱动农业技术在提高生产力、减少资源低效以及增强地缘政治压力下粮食系统韧性方面发挥着关键作用。本研究有助于更广泛地理解地缘政治动态如何塑造粮食安全，并为在日益不确定的全球环境中构建可持续、有韧性且技术驱动的粮食系统提供建议。","Journal of Smart Farming and Food Security","2026-10-19T00:00:00Z",77,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":170,"authority":19,"freshness":243,"relevant":21,"comment":244},9,"系统综述梳理地缘政治与粮食安全风险，并强调智慧农业的韧性价值，具政策与产业参考意义，但属综述性论文，非突破性成果。",[246],{"name":239,"url":236},[27,248,56,249,250],"农业供应链","精准农业","地缘政治",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[253,258],{"code":73,"slug":254,"name":255,"path":256,"parent_code":257},"climate","气候适应与防灾减灾","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Fclimate","H",{"code":259,"slug":260,"name":261,"path":262,"parent_code":263},"I5","agricultural-iot","物联网传感与边缘计算","\u002Ftopic\u002Fdigital-agriculture\u002Fagricultural-iot","I",{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":265},{"candidates":266,"agricultural_evidence":47},[267,271,277,284],{"code":32,"score":133,"supported":47,"title":268,"abstract":269,"tags":270},[57],[56,57],[56],{"code":45,"score":272,"supported":47,"title":273,"abstract":274,"tags":276},11,[],[27,249,275],"precision agriculture",[27,249],{"code":73,"score":243,"supported":47,"title":278,"abstract":279,"tags":283},[],[280,281,282],"气候变化","干旱","climate change",[],{"code":259,"score":243,"supported":47,"title":285,"abstract":286,"tags":290},[],[287,288,289],"物联网","internet of things","IoT",[],[292,293],"地缘政治 粮食安全","智慧农业 粮食系统韧性","地缘政治粮食安全-5308","10.51200\u002Fjsffs.v2i2.7666",{"doi":295,"openalex_id":297,"authors":298,"venue":239,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":236,"card":304,"direction":103,"ingested_from":104},"W7222902031",[299,301],{"name":300,"orcid":9},"Parameswaran Mahendran",{"name":302,"orcid":303},"Wong Sing Yun","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0001-5776-8852",{"tldr":305,"method":306,"finding":307,"direction":103,"opportunity":308},"系统综述地缘政治风险对粮食安全的影响及应对，强调智慧农业的韧性作用。","按PRISMA框架系统综述2015-2026年15篇同行评议文献。","冲突、贸易限制、气候与能源冲击威胁粮食安全，智慧农业可提升韧性与效率。","可量化研究物联网与精准农业在地缘政治冲击下对粮食系统韧性的实证贡献。","2026-10-19T23:30:07.850994Z",{"id":311,"title":312,"url":313,"summary":314,"summary_zh":315,"content":9,"source_name":316,"source_url":313,"published_at":317,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":318,"score_detail":319,"sources":321,"tags":323,"primary_topic":327,"secondary_topics":328,"classification":334,"search_phrases":405,"slug":408,"view_count":95,"doi":409,"paper":410,"created_at":423},5185,"When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182","When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya For generations, farmers in Western Kenya have watched the skies carefully. The arrival, duration, and distribution of rainfall have traditionally provided important signals about when to prepare land, plant, weed, and harvest. But these signals are becoming increasingly difficult to read. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, while increasingly frequent extreme weather events are making farming more uncertain. The current outlook for the October–December 2026 season brings this challenge sharply into focus. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a wetter-than-normal season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The Lake Victoria Basin, which includes large parts of Western Kenya, is among the areas with a high likelihood of receiving more than 400 mm of seasonal rainfall. ICPAC reports that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected—climate conditions that are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in the region, and is likely to run into February of 2027. But what does this mean for the smallholder farmer? The first point is that more rainfall does not necessarily mean more food. For a farmer whose livelihood depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, abundant rainfall can be a blessing. It can replenish streams and water sources, improve soil moisture, restore pasture and create favourable conditions for crop production. If well distributed, the rains could contribute to improved harvests and household food supplies. The problem arises when rainfall is too intense, too concentrated or poorly distributed. A farmer may receive a great deal of rain in a few days and then experience a dry spell. Another farmer a few kilometres away may receive considerably less. Heavy downpours can cause flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion. Seeds may be washed away soon after planting. Young crops can be submerged or damaged. Valuable topsoil and nutrients can be carried away, reducing the productivity of land in subsequent seasons. This is particularly important in Western Kenya, where many households depend on small parcels of land for both food and income. A failed or damaged crop is not simply an agricultural loss. It can mean less food in the household, less money for school fees and health care, and fewer resources to purchase nutritious foods. The food-security paradox We must, therefore, look beyond agricultural production to food and nutrition security. A household may produce enough maize yet still have a poor diet if vegetables, legumes, fruits, milk, eggs or other foods are unavailable or unaffordable. Climate shocks can reduce this diversity. When crops are damaged, families may depend more heavily on whatever staple food remains available. This is why climate resilience must also be nutrition-sensitive. Western Kenya has a rich agricultural tradition and considerable potential for diversified food production. Farmers grow cereals, legumes, vegetables and root crops and keep livestock and poultry. Such diversity is not merely an agricultural advantage; it is a nutritional resource. It can provide different foods, spread risk and generate income at different times of the year. Climate adaptation should, therefore, not encourage farmers simply to produce more of one crop. It should help them build diverse and resilient farming systems. Women carry a large part of the burden The impact of erratic and excessive rainfall also has a gender dimension. Women in smallholder households are often deeply involved in food production, processing, preparation and household nutrition. When harvests fail, or food prices rise, women frequently have to find ways of stretching limited household resources to feed the family. When roads become impassable or markets are disrupted, women may have greater difficulty accessing food and agricultural inputs. When water sources are contaminated or damaged, household responsibilities can become even more demanding. Climate adaptation must therefore deliberately include women—not simply as beneficiaries, but as decision-makers, innovators, farmers and leaders. Young people must also be part of the solution There is another group that deserves greater attention: young people. Western Kenya cannot build climate-resilient agriculture while treating agriculture as an occupation of the past. Young people need to see opportunities in modern farming, agro-processing, food safety, climate information services, irrigation, digital agriculture and agricultural entrepreneurship. The increasing unpredictability of climate may actually provide an opportunity to make agriculture more innovative. Young people can help introduce new technologies, improve access to climate information, develop value-added products and create businesses around food production and processing. From forecasting to action The availability of a climate forecast is useful only if it reaches the people who need it in time. Farmers need information that answers practical questions: When should I plant? Which crops or varieties are appropriate? How can I protect my soil? What should I do if rainfall becomes excessive? How can I protect harvested food? Where can I obtain reliable seed and other inputs? Seasonal forecasts should, therefore, be translated into local, practical agricultural advice. ICPAC itself emphasizes that seasonal forecasts should be used together with weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological information. This requires stronger links between meteorological services, agricultural extension officers, researchers, county governments, farmer organizations and communities. We should also strengthen simple but important measures: water harvesting, drainage, terracing and soil conservation; planting crops and varieties suited to local conditions; maintaining vegetation cover; diversifying crops and livestock; improving storage facilities; and protecting food from moisture and contamination. Prepare before the rain comes The greatest lesson from the current El Niño outlook is perhaps that preparedness must begin before the first heavy rains arrive. Governments and development partners should not wait for floods, damaged roads, destroyed crops or food shortages before responding. Early warning should lead to early action. Farmers should be supported to prepare their farms, protect livestock, secure seed and inputs, strengthen food storage and identify alternative routes to markets. This is particularly important because the same season can produce both opportunities and losses. ICPAC notes that enhanced rainfall can support agricultural production and replenish water resources, but can simultaneously increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas. A changing climate requires a different agricultural mindset Perhaps the most important change we need is in the way we think about farming. For too long, agricultural planning has often assumed that rainfall will behave according to a familiar calendar. That assumption is becoming increasingly unsafe. Farmers now have to manage not only too little rain, but also too much rain, rain at the wrong time and rain in the wrong place. The challenge is, therefore, not simply to produce more food. It is to build food systems that can continue providing adequate, diverse, safe and nutritious food under increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Western Kenya's smallholder farmers should not be left alone to carry this burden. They need science that responds to their realities, extension services that reach them, climate information they can understand and use, financial services that help them manage risk, markets that function during difficult seasons, and policies that recognize the central role of smallholder agriculture in national food and nutrition security, and partners who are willing to appreciate and make use of indigenous knowledge. El Niño should, therefore, be viewed neither simply as a disaster nor automatically as a blessing. It is a climate event whose consequences will depend greatly on our preparedness. The question before us is not merely, “Will the rains come?” They probably will. The more important question is: Will our farmers, food systems and institutions be ready when they do? That is where climate resilience—and ultimately food and nutrition security—will be tested. Prof. Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o Founder and Editor-in-Chief, AJFAND ORCiD: https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","当雨水过多时：厄尔尼诺现象、小农户与肯尼亚西部的粮食安全\n\n世代以来，肯尼亚西部的农民一直密切关注着天空。降雨的到来、持续时间和分布，传统上为何时整地、播种、除草和收获提供了重要信号。但这些信号正变得越来越难以解读。气候变化正在改变降雨模式，而日益频繁的极端天气事件使农业变得更加不确定。当前对2026年10月至12月季节的展望使这一挑战凸显出来。政府间发展组织气候预测与应用中心（ICPAC）预测，大非洲之角大部分地区将迎来高于正常水平的湿润季节。维多利亚湖流域——包括肯尼亚西部的大部分地区——属于极有可能获得超过400毫米季节性降雨的区域之一。ICPAC报告称，厄尔尼诺现象已经形成并预计将增强，同时预计还将出现正印度洋偶极子——这些气候条件通常与该地区降雨增强相关，并可能持续到2027年2月。但这对小农户意味着什么？首先，更多降雨并不必然意味着更多粮食。对于生计几乎完全依赖雨养农业的农民来说，充沛的降雨可能是福。它可以补充溪流和水源、改善土壤湿度、恢复牧场，并为作物生产创造有利条件。如果分布良好，降雨可能有助于改善收成和家庭粮食供应。问题出现在降雨过于猛烈、过于集中或分布不均的时候。一个农民可能在几天内获得大量降雨，随后又经历一段干旱期。几公里外的另一个农民可能获得的降雨少得多。暴雨可能引发洪水、渍涝和土壤侵蚀。种子可能在播种后不久被冲走。幼苗可能被淹没或受损。宝贵的表土和养分可能被带走，降低土地在后续季节的生产力。这在肯尼亚西部尤为重要，因为许多家庭依赖小块土地获取食物和收入。作物歉收或受损不仅仅是农业损失。它可能意味着家庭食物减少、用于学费和医疗的钱减少，以及购买营养食品的资源减少。粮食安全……","African Journal of Food Agriculture Nutrition and Development","2026-10-16T00:00:00Z",75,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":169,"authority":19,"freshness":46,"relevant":21,"comment":320},"核心期刊评论文章，结合El Niño预测讨论小农户气候适应与粮食营养安全，有实质分析与行动建议，但属区域案例、非信息化技术突破。",[322],{"name":316,"url":313},[28,56,324,325,326],"小农户","气候智慧农业","气候预警",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[329,333],{"code":60,"slug":330,"name":331,"path":332,"parent_code":193},"farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services",{"code":73,"slug":254,"name":255,"path":256,"parent_code":257},{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":335},{"candidates":336,"agricultural_evidence":47},[337,341,345,350,357,363,369,375,381,387,393,399],{"code":32,"score":133,"supported":47,"title":338,"abstract":339,"tags":340},[57],[56,57],[56],{"code":60,"score":133,"supported":47,"title":342,"abstract":343,"tags":344},[64],[324,64],[324],{"code":73,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":346,"abstract":347,"tags":349},[],[280,281,282,76,348],"waterlogging",[325],{"code":351,"score":53,"supported":47,"title":352,"abstract":353,"tags":356},"H2",[],[354,355],"土壤","soil",[],{"code":358,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":359,"abstract":360,"tags":362},"A3",[],[361],"maize",[],{"code":364,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":365,"abstract":366,"tags":368},"B4",[],[367],"月季",[],{"code":370,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":371,"abstract":372,"tags":374},"C",[],[373],"livestock",[],{"code":376,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":377,"abstract":378,"tags":380},"C3",[],[379],"poultry",[],{"code":382,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":383,"abstract":384,"tags":386},"E4",[],[385],"food safety",[],{"code":388,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":389,"abstract":390,"tags":392},"F4",[],[391],"除草",[],{"code":394,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":395,"abstract":396,"tags":398},"G1",[],[397],"agricultural extension",[],{"code":400,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":401,"abstract":402,"tags":404},"H3",[],[403],"irrigation",[],[406,407],"El Niño 小农户 粮食安全","ICPAC 季节预报 肯尼亚","ElNiño小农户粮食安全-5185","10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182",{"doi":409,"openalex_id":411,"authors":412,"venue":316,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":416,"card":417,"direction":101,"ingested_from":104},"W7222630373",[413],{"name":414,"orcid":415},"Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","https:\u002F\u002Fajfand.net\u002FVolume26\u002FNo8\u002FEditorialVol26No8.pdf",{"tldr":418,"method":419,"finding":420,"direction":421,"opportunity":422},"分析厄尔尼诺导致肯尼亚西部降雨过量对小农粮食安全的影响","基于ICPAC季节气候预测与厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子分析","降雨过多且分布不均会引发洪涝、土壤侵蚀，反而威胁小农粮食安全","农业绿色发展与碳","可结合遥感与农户调查，量化极端降雨时空分布对小农产量与粮食安全的非线性影响","2026-10-17T23:30:36.130973Z",{"id":425,"title":426,"url":427,"summary":428,"summary_zh":9,"content":9,"source_name":429,"source_url":9,"published_at":9,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":115,"is_selected":14,"score":241,"score_detail":430,"sources":434,"tags":438,"primary_topic":442,"secondary_topics":443,"classification":444,"search_phrases":472,"slug":475,"view_count":53,"doi":476,"paper":477,"created_at":488},4969,"Digital technology, agricultural resilience, and food security: A mini review","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fsustainable-food-systems\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.2002109\u002Ffull","Shen在《Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems》(2026)发表的综述综合了国际数字农业文献与中国'数字经济—农业经济韧性'研究两条主线。提出三点发现:一是数字技术通过不同机制强化食物安全的四个维度——可获得性(生产力与投入效率)、可及性(市场信息与数字金融)、稳定性(溯源、预警与保险)、利用性(溯源、营养信息与移动支付);二是准自然实验证据显示数字基础设施、数字金融和人工智能主要通过社会化服务、土地流转、产业融合、人力资本而非仅'采纳'提升粮食生产与价值链韧性;三是收益分布不均,空间溢出方向取决于吸收能力、市场整合与要素流动性。","Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 2026",{"impact":118,"substance":431,"depth":17,"authority":432,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":433},21,14,"核心期刊综述，系统梳理数字技术强化粮食安全四维度的机制与准自然实验证据，兼具国际文献与中国经验，但发布日期不明、时效性偏弱，适合作为主题页深度聚合素材。",[435,436],{"name":429,"url":427},{"name":10,"url":437},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.2002109",[26,56,439,440,441],"农业韧性","空间溢出","数字金融",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[],{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":445},{"candidates":446,"agricultural_evidence":47},[447,451,457,462,467],{"code":32,"score":243,"supported":47,"title":448,"abstract":449,"tags":450},[57],[],[56],{"code":60,"score":53,"supported":47,"title":452,"abstract":453,"tags":456},[],[454,455],"土地流转","社会化服务",[],{"code":45,"score":458,"supported":47,"title":459,"abstract":460,"tags":461},4,[],[26],[26],{"code":463,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":464,"abstract":465,"tags":466},"G3",[],[],[441],{"code":468,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":469,"abstract":470,"tags":471},"I4",[],[],[440],[473,474],"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 数字农业","数字技术 农业韧性 粮食安全","FrontiersinSustainableFoodSystems数字农业-4969","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.2002109\u002Ffull",{"doi":476,"openalex_id":478,"authors":479,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":437,"card":483,"direction":101,"ingested_from":104},"W7223134273",[480],{"name":481,"orcid":482},"Yang Shen","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6781-6915",{"tldr":484,"method":485,"finding":486,"direction":101,"opportunity":487},"综述数字技术通过多机制强化食物安全四维度并提升农业韧性，但收益分布不均。","综合国际数字农业文献与中国数字经济—农业经济韧性研究两条主线。","数字技术经社会化服务、土地流转等提升韧性，收益不均且空间溢出取决于吸收能力。","可探究数字技术收益不均的成因及吸收能力、市场整合对空间溢出方向的调节机制。","2026-10-15T00:06:08.890950Z",{"id":490,"title":491,"url":492,"summary":493,"summary_zh":494,"content":9,"source_name":495,"source_url":492,"published_at":496,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":318,"score_detail":497,"sources":499,"tags":501,"primary_topic":505,"secondary_topics":506,"classification":507,"search_phrases":538,"slug":541,"view_count":21,"doi":542,"paper":543,"created_at":554},4600,"Optimization model of agricultural economic structure based on LSTM","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1007\u002Fs42452-026-09594-x","With the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and agricultural big data, the adjustment of agricultural economic structure has shifted from empirical judgment to data-driven decision-making. This study uses the provincial panel data of agricultural economy in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2023 to construct a comprehensive framework of prediction and optimization. The forecasting layer uses the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to capture the dynamic relationship among agricultural GDP growth rate, main crop output, rural employment structure, agricultural product price index, financial subsidies and agricultural infrastructure investment. The optimization layer uses the prediction results as parameters. It defines three objectives. overall agricultural benefit, structural deviation and food security risk. It also includes restrictions on cultivated land area, budget, labor supply and food security. Based on these backgrounds, the adjustment scheme of agricultural economic structure was formulated. The results show that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and r of LSTM model are 0.32, 0.45 and 0.91 respectively. Its prediction performance is better than autoregressive moving average (ARIMA), back propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). These findings show that the combination of multivariate collaborative forecasting and structural optimization constraints can improve the efficiency of agricultural resource allocation. This method also provides quantitative support for rural revitalization, food security and digital agriculture policy design.","随着人工智能（AI）与农业大数据的发展，农业经济结构调整已从经验判断转向数据驱动决策。本研究利用2010—2023年湖北省农业经济省级面板数据，构建了预测与优化的综合框架。预测层采用长短期记忆（LSTM）模型，捕捉农业GDP增长率、主要作物产量、农村就业结构、农产品价格指数、财政补贴与农业基础设施投资之间的动态关系。优化层以预测结果作为参数，设定三个目标：农业整体效益、结构性偏差与粮食安全风险，并纳入耕地面积、预算、劳动力供给与粮食安全等约束条件。在此基础上，制定农业经济结构调整方案。结果表明，LSTM模型的平均绝对误差（MAE）、均方根误差（RMSE）与r分别为0.32、0.45和0.91，其预测性能优于自回归移动平均（ARIMA）、反向传播神经网络（BPNN）、支持向量回归（SVR）与随机森林（RF）。这些发现表明，多变量协同预测与结构优化约束的结合能够提高农业资源配置效率。该方法也为乡村振兴、粮食安全与数字农业政策设计提供了量化支持。","Discover Applied Sciences","2026-10-09T00:00:00Z",{"impact":169,"substance":18,"depth":170,"authority":19,"freshness":243,"relevant":21,"comment":498},"基于湖北省级面板数据构建LSTM预测与多目标优化框架，方法对比充分、结论有量化支撑，对数字农业与乡村振兴政策设计具参考价值。",[500],{"name":495,"url":492},[26,502,56,503,504],"农业人工智能","农业经济结构","LSTM预测",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},[],{"status":39,"locked":14,"version":40,"method":41,"evidence":508},{"candidates":509,"agricultural_evidence":47},[510,514,518,524,529,534],{"code":32,"score":184,"supported":47,"title":511,"abstract":512,"tags":513},[],[56,57],[56],{"code":45,"score":184,"supported":47,"title":515,"abstract":516,"tags":517},[],[26,50],[26],{"code":519,"score":458,"supported":47,"title":520,"abstract":521,"tags":523},"I2",[],[522],"artificial intelligence",[502],{"code":193,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":525,"abstract":526,"tags":528},[],[527],"乡村振兴",[],{"code":206,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":530,"abstract":531,"tags":533},[],[532],"农业大数据",[],{"code":200,"score":61,"supported":47,"title":535,"abstract":536,"tags":537},[],[203],[],[539,540],"湖北 农业经济结构 LSTM","农业经济结构 优化模型","湖北农业经济结构LSTM-4600","10.1007\u002Fs42452-026-09594-x",{"doi":542,"openalex_id":544,"authors":545,"venue":495,"cited_by_count":95,"oa_url":492,"card":548,"direction":101,"ingested_from":104},"W7221088951",[546],{"name":547,"orcid":9},"Xue Gong",{"tldr":549,"method":550,"finding":551,"direction":552,"opportunity":553},"用LSTM预测湖北农业经济指标，并构建多目标优化模型调整农业结构。","LSTM预测2010-2023年湖北面板数据，结合多目标优化与约束条件。","LSTM预测精度优于ARIMA、BPNN等，优化方案可提升农业资源配置效率。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可探索将LSTM与多目标优化耦合框架推广至其他省份或作物类型，并引入实时数据流。","2026-10-10T23:30:34.807708Z"]