[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-1339":3,"related-1339":84},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":8,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":24,"tags":26,"primary_topic":31,"secondary_topics":37,"classification":50,"search_phrases":79,"slug":82,"view_count":22,"doi":8,"paper":8,"created_at":83},1339,"区域农机社会化服务组织暨农机防灾减灾救灾能力建设工作现场推进会在山东淄博召开","https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm","农业农村部农机化司 8 月 28 日在山东淄博召开推进会，落实刘国中副总理讲话精神。会议提出配强应急救灾机具装备、提升粮油烘干能力、完善应急救灾调用制度；要求各地高度重视今年\"三秋\"机械化生产，提前制定完善应急工作预案、备好履带式收获机、移动式烘干机、水泵等。",null,"[**中文**](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)[English](https:\u002F\u002Fenglish.moa.gov.cn\u002F)无障碍\n\n[农业农村部邮箱](https:\u002F\u002Fmail.agri.gov.cn\u002F)\n\n[](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.moa.gov.cn\u002F)搜索 \n\n*   [机构职能](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fjgzn\u002F)\n*   [工作动态](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F)\n*   [通知公告](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Ftzggjzcjd\u002F)\n*   [政策解读](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fzcjd1\u002F)\n*   [全程全面机械化](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fqcjxhtjxd\u002F)\n*   [监督管理](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fjdgl\u002F)\n*   [农业机械化情况专刊](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fnyjxhqk\u002F)\n\n[机构职能](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fjgzn\u002F)\n\n[工作动态](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F)\n\n[通知公告](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Ftzggjzcjd\u002F)\n\n[政策解读](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fzcjd1\u002F)\n\n[全程全面机械化](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fqcjxhtjxd\u002F)\n\n[监督管理](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fjdgl\u002F)\n\n[农业机械化情况专刊](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fnyjxhqk\u002F)\n\n当前位置：[首页](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.moa.gov.cn\u002F)>[机构](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.moa.gov.cn\u002Fjg\u002F)>[农业机械化管理司](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002F \"农业机械化管理司\")>工作动态\n\n# 区域农机社会化服务组织暨农机防灾减灾救灾能力建设工作现场推进会在山东淄博召开\n\n日期：2026-08-31 作者：来源：农业农村部农业机械化管理司【字号：[大](javascript:;)[中](javascript:;)[小](javascript:;)】[打印本页](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)\n\n8 月 28 日，农业农村部 农业机械化管理司 在山东淄博召开 区域农机社会化服务组织暨 农机 防灾减灾救灾能力建设工作现场推进会。会议 深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示批示精神，全面贯彻 党中央、国务院决策部署，落实刘国中副总理在秋粮生产和农业防灾减灾救灾视频调度会上的讲话精神，按照部党组部署要求，总结交流区域农机社会化服务中心和区域农业应急救灾中心建设成效经验，研究推进农机防灾减灾救灾能力建设，并 提前 部署 做好“三秋”机械化 生产和 农机 应急救灾工作。\n\n会议 提出，各地要清醒认识农业防灾减灾的艰巨性，准确把握形势要求，分析研究区域农机社会化服务组织培育建设 在区域布局、装备储备、指挥调度和政策保障等方面 存在的困难问题，坚持问题导向，创新思路，主动作为，在“十五五”时期加快推进区域农机社会化服务组织和农机应急救灾能力建设。要抓重点区域和重点环节加快主体建设，配强应急救灾机具装备，提升粮油烘干能力，加强服务和政策保障，完善应急救灾调用制度，提升农机指挥调度水平，持续提高防范应对农业灾害的能力和水平，切实保障国家粮食安全。\n\n会议强调，要 高度重视今年“三秋”机械化生产，早谋划、早部署、早准备、早安排。要提前制定完善“三秋”农机应急工作预案，抓紧开展机具检修、供需对接。细致落实农机作业服务保障，加强与气象、交通、石油石化等部门沟通协作。做好农机应急准备，备好履带式收获机、移动式烘干机以及水泵等应急救灾机具，加强粮食烘干服务供给。广泛开展培训指导，切实提高农机作业质量。抓好农机安全生产，推动维护好农机作业和转移秩序，确保“三秋”机械化生产高效有序推进。\n\n各省、自治区、直辖市 和新疆生产建设兵团 农业农村部门农机化处室负责同志，部分省份农机有关事业单位 负责同志，农业农村部有关司局和事业单位负责同志参加会议。山东、陕西、广东、四川、辽宁、湖北等 6 省作交流发言。\n\n*   [机关子站![Image 1](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fgov-links-arrow-icon1_03.png)](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)\n*   [直属单位网站![Image 2](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fgov-links-arrow-icon1_03.png)](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)\n*   [![Image 3](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fgov-links-pic_1_03.png)](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.gov.cn\u002F)\n*   [国务院各部门网站![Image 4](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fgov-links-arrow-icon1_03.png)](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)\n*   [地方农业管理部门网站![Image 5](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fgov-links-arrow-icon1_03.png)](https:\u002F\u002Fnjhs.moa.gov.cn\u002Fgzdt\u002F202608\u002Ft20260831_6487150.htm)\n\n1.   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2026-08-31","2026-08-31T02:00:00Z","报道",10,false,77,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":23},25,18,12,15,7,1,"全国性农机防灾减灾工作推进会，部署三秋生产，具有政策指导意义。",[25],{"name":10,"url":6},[27,28,29,30],"防灾减灾","三秋生产","农机社会化服务","应急救灾",{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},"F5","machinery","农机装备与机械化","\u002Ftopic\u002Finputs-equipment\u002Fmachinery","F",[38,44],{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},"G2","farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services","G",{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},"H7","climate","气候适应与防灾减灾","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Fclimate","H",{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":54},"classified","2026-10-22.2","rules",{"candidates":55,"agricultural_evidence":58},[56,64,70,74],{"code":32,"score":57,"supported":58,"title":59,"abstract":61,"tags":63},14,true,[60],"农机",[60,62],"机械化",[],{"code":39,"score":65,"supported":58,"title":66,"abstract":68,"tags":69},9,[67],"社会化服务",[],[29],{"code":45,"score":65,"supported":58,"title":71,"abstract":72,"tags":73},[27],[],[27],{"code":75,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":76,"abstract":77,"tags":78},"J4",[],[],[28],[80,81],"农机社会化服务 三秋生产 应急救灾 防灾减灾","农机社会化服务 三秋生产","农机社会化服务三秋生产应急救灾防灾减灾-1339","2026-09-02T00:05:03.351185Z",{"total":85,"page":22,"page_size":85,"items":86},6,[87,141,238,347,414,484],{"id":88,"title":89,"url":90,"summary":91,"summary_zh":8,"content":8,"source_name":92,"source_url":8,"published_at":93,"category":12,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":94,"score_detail":95,"sources":97,"tags":99,"primary_topic":103,"secondary_topics":109,"classification":112,"search_phrases":135,"slug":138,"view_count":139,"doi":8,"paper":8,"created_at":140},1784,"筑牢粮食安全\"农机防线\"——农业农村部农机化司在山东淄博召开农机防灾减灾救灾能力建设现场推进会","https:\u002F\u002Fszb.farmer.com.cn\u002Fnjb\u002Fzgnjhdb\u002Fhtml\u002F2026\u002F20260903\u002F20260903_1\u002Fzgnjhdb_20260903_00000_1_01.html","8月28日农业农村部农业机械化管理司在山东淄博召开区域农机社会化服务组织暨农机防灾减灾救灾能力建设工作现场推进会，落实刘国中副总理在秋粮生产和农业防灾减灾救灾视频调度会上的讲话精神，研究推进\"十五五\"时期区域农机社会化服务组织和农机应急救灾能力建设，提前部署做好\"三秋\"机械化生产和农机应急救灾工作。山东、陕西、广东、四川、辽宁、湖北6省作交流发言。","农民日报·中国农机化导报2026年9月3日 头版","2026-09-03T00:00:00Z",75,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":57,"authority":19,"freshness":85,"relevant":22,"comment":96},"全国性农机防灾减灾推进会，部署三秋机械化生产，政策导向明确，信息增量中等。",[98],{"name":92,"url":90},[100,29,101,102],"粮食安全","三秋机械化","农机防灾减灾",{"code":104,"slug":105,"name":106,"path":107,"parent_code":108},"A8","yield-food-security","单产提升与粮食安全","\u002Ftopic\u002Ffield-crops\u002Fyield-food-security","A",[110,111],{"code":32,"slug":33,"name":34,"path":35,"parent_code":36},{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":113},{"candidates":114,"agricultural_evidence":58},[115,121,126,130],{"code":32,"score":116,"supported":58,"title":117,"abstract":118,"tags":120},17,[60],[60,119,62],"农业机械",[],{"code":45,"score":122,"supported":58,"title":123,"abstract":124,"tags":125},11,[27],[27],[],{"code":104,"score":65,"supported":58,"title":127,"abstract":128,"tags":129},[100],[],[100],{"code":39,"score":131,"supported":58,"title":132,"abstract":133,"tags":134},4,[],[67],[29],[136,137],"农机社会化服务 农机防灾减灾 三秋机械化 粮食安全","农机社会化服务 农机防灾减灾","农机社会化服务农机防灾减灾三秋机械化粮食安全-1784",3,"2026-09-07T00:04:37.406171Z",{"id":142,"title":143,"url":144,"summary":145,"summary_zh":146,"content":8,"source_name":147,"source_url":144,"published_at":148,"category":149,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":150,"score_detail":151,"sources":154,"tags":156,"primary_topic":161,"secondary_topics":162,"classification":165,"search_phrases":212,"slug":215,"view_count":216,"doi":217,"paper":218,"created_at":237},5478,"Characterisation of Food Security Situation for Smallholder Farmers in Zvimba","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30","This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the food security situation among smallholder farmers (SHFs) in Zvimba District, Zimbabwe. Smallholder agriculture is the bedrock of Zimbabwe's food system, yet it remains highly vulnerable to a complex array of shocks and stressors. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research investigates the prevalence, drivers and lived experiences of food insecurity within this community. A structured survey was administered to 412 randomly selected smallholder households across the district's wards. The quantitative data were supplemented by 12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 24 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with farmers, community leaders and agricultural extension officers to capture qualitative nuances. The study is grounded in the Food Security Theory (FST), which conceptualises food security through its four pillars: food availability, food access, food utilisation and food stability. Findings reveal a precarious food security situation. Quantitatively, 78.4% of households were found to be food insecure, with an average Hunger Months Index of 4.7 months per year. The study identifies a significant disconnect between maize production, the national staple and household consumption, with over 65% of households failing to produce enough maize to meet their annual requirements. Qualitative data illuminated the multi-faceted drivers of this insecurity. Key points to note include climate change whereby erratic rainfall and prolonged mid-season dry spells were consistently reported as the primary production challenges, limited access to farming inputs whereby high costs and unreliable supplies of certified seeds, fertilizers and agro[1]chemicals constrain productivity. Morelso, socio-economic factors such as poverty, lack of viable alternative livelihoods and limited access to formal credit perpetuate a cycle of vulnerability. In addition, institutional weaknesses, for example, challenges with agricultural extension services and market inefficiencies, exacerbate the situation. The study concludes that food insecurity in Zvimba is not merely a problem of food production, but is deeply rooted in structural issues affecting food access, food utilisation, as well as food stability. Recommendations are proposed for a multi-sectoral approach, including promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) and drought-resistant crops, strengthening input support systems and rural finance, diversifying livelihood strategies and enhancing the capacity of extension services. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the localised dynamics of food security and provides evidence-based guidance for policymakers, development practitioners and the farmers of Zvimba themselves.","本研究对津巴布韦兹维姆巴区小农户（smallholder farmers, SHFs）的粮食安全状况进行了全面分析。小农农业是津巴布韦粮食体系的基石，但仍极易受到一系列复杂冲击和压力的影响。本研究采用混合方法，考察了该社区粮食不安全的普遍程度、驱动因素及生活体验。研究对该区各选区随机抽取的412户小农户进行了结构化问卷调查。定量数据辅以12次焦点小组讨论（FGDs）和24次关键知情人访谈（KIIs），访谈对象包括农民、社区领袖和农业推广人员，以捕捉定性层面的细微差异。本研究以粮食安全理论（Food Security Theory, FST）为基础，该理论通过四大支柱界定粮食安全：粮食可供性、粮食获取、粮食利用和粮食稳定性。研究结果揭示了严峻的粮食安全形势。定量数据显示，78.4%的家庭存在粮食不安全，年均饥饿月份指数为4.7个月。研究发现，玉米产量——该国主粮——与家庭消费之间存在显著脱节，超过65%的家庭生产的玉米不足以满足其年度需求。定性数据揭示了这一不安全状况的多重驱动因素。值得注意的要点包括：气候变化，即降雨不稳定和持续的中期干旱被一致报告为主要生产挑战；农业投入品获取受限，即认证种子、化肥和农用化学品成本高昂且供应不可靠，制约了生产力。此外，贫困、缺乏可行的替代生计以及正规信贷获取受限等社会经济因素使脆弱性循环持续存在。此外，制度薄弱环节，例如农业推广服务面临的挑战和市场效率低下，加剧了这一状况。研究得出结论，兹维姆巴的粮食不安全不仅仅是粮食生产问题，而是深深植根于影响粮食获取、粮食利用以及粮食稳定性的结构性问题。研究提出了采取多部门方法的建议，包括推广气候智能型农业（Climate-Smart Agriculture, CSA）和抗旱作物、加强投入品支持体系和农村金融、多样化生计策略以及增强","Ngenani The Zimbabwe Ezekiel Guti Journal of Community Engagement and Societal Transformations","2026-10-20T00:00:00Z","论文",55,{"impact":152,"substance":18,"depth":20,"authority":85,"freshness":152,"relevant":22,"comment":153},8,"基于412户调查与混合方法的扎实实证研究，但属津巴布韦地方性案例，公共影响与信源权威度有限，可作参考而非每日精选。",[155],{"name":147,"url":144},[100,157,158,159,160],"小农户","气候智慧农业","农业推广","津巴布韦",{"code":104,"slug":105,"name":106,"path":107,"parent_code":108},[163,164],{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":166},{"candidates":167,"agricultural_evidence":58},[168,173,178,186,192,199,206],{"code":104,"score":20,"supported":58,"title":169,"abstract":171,"tags":172},[170],"food security",[100,170],[100],{"code":39,"score":20,"supported":58,"title":174,"abstract":176,"tags":177},[175],"smallholder",[157,175],[157],{"code":45,"score":13,"supported":58,"title":179,"abstract":180,"tags":185},[],[181,182,183,184],"气候变化","干旱","climate change","drought",[158],{"code":187,"score":21,"supported":58,"title":188,"abstract":189,"tags":191},"G1",[],[159,190],"agricultural extension",[159],{"code":193,"score":85,"supported":58,"title":194,"abstract":195,"tags":198},"A3",[],[196,197],"玉米","maize",[],{"code":200,"score":85,"supported":58,"title":201,"abstract":202,"tags":205},"G3",[],[203,204],"农村金融","rural finance",[],{"code":207,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":208,"abstract":209,"tags":211},"I1",[],[210],"smart agriculture",[],[213,214],"Zvimba 小农户 粮食安全","津巴布韦 小农 玉米","Zvimba小农户粮食安全-5478",0,"10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30",{"doi":217,"openalex_id":219,"authors":220,"venue":147,"cited_by_count":216,"oa_url":8,"card":229,"direction":235,"ingested_from":236},"W7223029383",[221,224,227],{"name":222,"orcid":223},"Casper Myambo","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0007-8625-7526",{"name":225,"orcid":226},"Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-4123-0238",{"name":228,"orcid":8},"Patience Mutopo",{"tldr":230,"method":231,"finding":232,"direction":233,"opportunity":234},"调查津巴布韦Zvimba小农户粮食安全状况，分析其普遍性、成因与实际体验。","混合方法：412户问卷、12场焦点小组、24个关键人物访谈，基于粮食安全四支柱理","78.4%家庭粮食不安全，年均饥饿月4.7个月，主因是气候、投入、社会经济与制度等结构性问题。","数字乡村与农业信息化","可探索用移动端问卷与遥感产量监测构建小农户粮食安全动态预警与精准干预系统。","智慧农业 \u002F 农业物联网","openalex","2026-10-21T23:30:08.937079Z",{"id":239,"title":240,"url":241,"summary":242,"summary_zh":243,"content":8,"source_name":244,"source_url":241,"published_at":245,"category":149,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":94,"score_detail":246,"sources":251,"tags":253,"primary_topic":256,"secondary_topics":257,"classification":260,"search_phrases":328,"slug":331,"view_count":216,"doi":332,"paper":333,"created_at":346},5185,"When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182","When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya For generations, farmers in Western Kenya have watched the skies carefully. The arrival, duration, and distribution of rainfall have traditionally provided important signals about when to prepare land, plant, weed, and harvest. But these signals are becoming increasingly difficult to read. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, while increasingly frequent extreme weather events are making farming more uncertain. The current outlook for the October–December 2026 season brings this challenge sharply into focus. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a wetter-than-normal season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The Lake Victoria Basin, which includes large parts of Western Kenya, is among the areas with a high likelihood of receiving more than 400 mm of seasonal rainfall. ICPAC reports that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected—climate conditions that are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in the region, and is likely to run into February of 2027. But what does this mean for the smallholder farmer? The first point is that more rainfall does not necessarily mean more food. For a farmer whose livelihood depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, abundant rainfall can be a blessing. It can replenish streams and water sources, improve soil moisture, restore pasture and create favourable conditions for crop production. If well distributed, the rains could contribute to improved harvests and household food supplies. The problem arises when rainfall is too intense, too concentrated or poorly distributed. A farmer may receive a great deal of rain in a few days and then experience a dry spell. Another farmer a few kilometres away may receive considerably less. Heavy downpours can cause flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion. Seeds may be washed away soon after planting. Young crops can be submerged or damaged. Valuable topsoil and nutrients can be carried away, reducing the productivity of land in subsequent seasons. This is particularly important in Western Kenya, where many households depend on small parcels of land for both food and income. A failed or damaged crop is not simply an agricultural loss. It can mean less food in the household, less money for school fees and health care, and fewer resources to purchase nutritious foods. The food-security paradox We must, therefore, look beyond agricultural production to food and nutrition security. A household may produce enough maize yet still have a poor diet if vegetables, legumes, fruits, milk, eggs or other foods are unavailable or unaffordable. Climate shocks can reduce this diversity. When crops are damaged, families may depend more heavily on whatever staple food remains available. This is why climate resilience must also be nutrition-sensitive. Western Kenya has a rich agricultural tradition and considerable potential for diversified food production. Farmers grow cereals, legumes, vegetables and root crops and keep livestock and poultry. Such diversity is not merely an agricultural advantage; it is a nutritional resource. It can provide different foods, spread risk and generate income at different times of the year. Climate adaptation should, therefore, not encourage farmers simply to produce more of one crop. It should help them build diverse and resilient farming systems. Women carry a large part of the burden The impact of erratic and excessive rainfall also has a gender dimension. Women in smallholder households are often deeply involved in food production, processing, preparation and household nutrition. When harvests fail, or food prices rise, women frequently have to find ways of stretching limited household resources to feed the family. When roads become impassable or markets are disrupted, women may have greater difficulty accessing food and agricultural inputs. When water sources are contaminated or damaged, household responsibilities can become even more demanding. Climate adaptation must therefore deliberately include women—not simply as beneficiaries, but as decision-makers, innovators, farmers and leaders. Young people must also be part of the solution There is another group that deserves greater attention: young people. Western Kenya cannot build climate-resilient agriculture while treating agriculture as an occupation of the past. Young people need to see opportunities in modern farming, agro-processing, food safety, climate information services, irrigation, digital agriculture and agricultural entrepreneurship. The increasing unpredictability of climate may actually provide an opportunity to make agriculture more innovative. Young people can help introduce new technologies, improve access to climate information, develop value-added products and create businesses around food production and processing. From forecasting to action The availability of a climate forecast is useful only if it reaches the people who need it in time. Farmers need information that answers practical questions: When should I plant? Which crops or varieties are appropriate? How can I protect my soil? What should I do if rainfall becomes excessive? How can I protect harvested food? Where can I obtain reliable seed and other inputs? Seasonal forecasts should, therefore, be translated into local, practical agricultural advice. ICPAC itself emphasizes that seasonal forecasts should be used together with weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological information. This requires stronger links between meteorological services, agricultural extension officers, researchers, county governments, farmer organizations and communities. We should also strengthen simple but important measures: water harvesting, drainage, terracing and soil conservation; planting crops and varieties suited to local conditions; maintaining vegetation cover; diversifying crops and livestock; improving storage facilities; and protecting food from moisture and contamination. Prepare before the rain comes The greatest lesson from the current El Niño outlook is perhaps that preparedness must begin before the first heavy rains arrive. Governments and development partners should not wait for floods, damaged roads, destroyed crops or food shortages before responding. Early warning should lead to early action. Farmers should be supported to prepare their farms, protect livestock, secure seed and inputs, strengthen food storage and identify alternative routes to markets. This is particularly important because the same season can produce both opportunities and losses. ICPAC notes that enhanced rainfall can support agricultural production and replenish water resources, but can simultaneously increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas. A changing climate requires a different agricultural mindset Perhaps the most important change we need is in the way we think about farming. For too long, agricultural planning has often assumed that rainfall will behave according to a familiar calendar. That assumption is becoming increasingly unsafe. Farmers now have to manage not only too little rain, but also too much rain, rain at the wrong time and rain in the wrong place. The challenge is, therefore, not simply to produce more food. It is to build food systems that can continue providing adequate, diverse, safe and nutritious food under increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Western Kenya's smallholder farmers should not be left alone to carry this burden. They need science that responds to their realities, extension services that reach them, climate information they can understand and use, financial services that help them manage risk, markets that function during difficult seasons, and policies that recognize the central role of smallholder agriculture in national food and nutrition security, and partners who are willing to appreciate and make use of indigenous knowledge. El Niño should, therefore, be viewed neither simply as a disaster nor automatically as a blessing. It is a climate event whose consequences will depend greatly on our preparedness. The question before us is not merely, “Will the rains come?” They probably will. The more important question is: Will our farmers, food systems and institutions be ready when they do? That is where climate resilience—and ultimately food and nutrition security—will be tested. Prof. Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o Founder and Editor-in-Chief, AJFAND ORCiD: https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","当雨水过多时：厄尔尼诺现象、小农户与肯尼亚西部的粮食安全\n\n世代以来，肯尼亚西部的农民一直密切关注着天空。降雨的到来、持续时间和分布，传统上为何时整地、播种、除草和收获提供了重要信号。但这些信号正变得越来越难以解读。气候变化正在改变降雨模式，而日益频繁的极端天气事件使农业变得更加不确定。当前对2026年10月至12月季节的展望使这一挑战凸显出来。政府间发展组织气候预测与应用中心（ICPAC）预测，大非洲之角大部分地区将迎来高于正常水平的湿润季节。维多利亚湖流域——包括肯尼亚西部的大部分地区——属于极有可能获得超过400毫米季节性降雨的区域之一。ICPAC报告称，厄尔尼诺现象已经形成并预计将增强，同时预计还将出现正印度洋偶极子——这些气候条件通常与该地区降雨增强相关，并可能持续到2027年2月。但这对小农户意味着什么？首先，更多降雨并不必然意味着更多粮食。对于生计几乎完全依赖雨养农业的农民来说，充沛的降雨可能是福。它可以补充溪流和水源、改善土壤湿度、恢复牧场，并为作物生产创造有利条件。如果分布良好，降雨可能有助于改善收成和家庭粮食供应。问题出现在降雨过于猛烈、过于集中或分布不均的时候。一个农民可能在几天内获得大量降雨，随后又经历一段干旱期。几公里外的另一个农民可能获得的降雨少得多。暴雨可能引发洪水、渍涝和土壤侵蚀。种子可能在播种后不久被冲走。幼苗可能被淹没或受损。宝贵的表土和养分可能被带走，降低土地在后续季节的生产力。这在肯尼亚西部尤为重要，因为许多家庭依赖小块土地获取食物和收入。作物歉收或受损不仅仅是农业损失。它可能意味着家庭食物减少、用于学费和医疗的钱减少，以及购买营养食品的资源减少。粮食安全……","African Journal of Food Agriculture Nutrition and Development","2026-10-16T00:00:00Z",{"impact":18,"substance":247,"depth":248,"authority":249,"freshness":152,"relevant":22,"comment":250},20,16,13,"核心期刊评论文章，结合El Niño预测讨论小农户气候适应与粮食营养安全，有实质分析与行动建议，但属区域案例、非信息化技术突破。",[252],{"name":244,"url":241},[254,100,157,158,255],"肯尼亚","气候预警",{"code":104,"slug":105,"name":106,"path":107,"parent_code":108},[258,259],{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":261},{"candidates":262,"agricultural_evidence":58},[263,267,271,277,284,288,294,300,306,312,318,322],{"code":104,"score":20,"supported":58,"title":264,"abstract":265,"tags":266},[170],[100,170],[100],{"code":39,"score":20,"supported":58,"title":268,"abstract":269,"tags":270},[175],[157,175],[157],{"code":45,"score":13,"supported":58,"title":272,"abstract":273,"tags":276},[],[181,182,183,274,275],"climate resilience","waterlogging",[158],{"code":278,"score":85,"supported":58,"title":279,"abstract":280,"tags":283},"H2",[],[281,282],"土壤","soil",[],{"code":193,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":285,"abstract":286,"tags":287},[],[197],[],{"code":289,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":290,"abstract":291,"tags":293},"B4",[],[292],"月季",[],{"code":295,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":296,"abstract":297,"tags":299},"C",[],[298],"livestock",[],{"code":301,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":302,"abstract":303,"tags":305},"C3",[],[304],"poultry",[],{"code":307,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":308,"abstract":309,"tags":311},"E4",[],[310],"food safety",[],{"code":313,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":314,"abstract":315,"tags":317},"F4",[],[316],"除草",[],{"code":187,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":319,"abstract":320,"tags":321},[],[190],[],{"code":323,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":324,"abstract":325,"tags":327},"H3",[],[326],"irrigation",[],[329,330],"El Niño 小农户 粮食安全","ICPAC 季节预报 肯尼亚","ElNiño小农户粮食安全-5185","10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182",{"doi":332,"openalex_id":334,"authors":335,"venue":244,"cited_by_count":216,"oa_url":339,"card":340,"direction":233,"ingested_from":236},"W7222630373",[336],{"name":337,"orcid":338},"Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","https:\u002F\u002Fajfand.net\u002FVolume26\u002FNo8\u002FEditorialVol26No8.pdf",{"tldr":341,"method":342,"finding":343,"direction":344,"opportunity":345},"分析厄尔尼诺导致肯尼亚西部降雨过量对小农粮食安全的影响","基于ICPAC季节气候预测与厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子分析","降雨过多且分布不均会引发洪涝、土壤侵蚀，反而威胁小农粮食安全","农业绿色发展与碳","可结合遥感与农户调查，量化极端降雨时空分布对小农产量与粮食安全的非线性影响","2026-10-17T23:30:36.130973Z",{"id":348,"title":349,"url":350,"summary":351,"summary_zh":352,"content":8,"source_name":353,"source_url":350,"published_at":354,"category":149,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":355,"score_detail":356,"sources":358,"tags":360,"primary_topic":363,"secondary_topics":364,"classification":366,"search_phrases":390,"slug":393,"view_count":22,"doi":394,"paper":395,"created_at":413},4983,"Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability among Smallholder Farming Households in the Diffa Region of Niger’s Lake Chad Basin","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.9734\u002Fjeai\u002F2026\u002Fv48i104567","Climate change affects agricultural production, on which 80% of rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa depend for their livelihoods. In the Lake Chad Basin, recent fluctuations in hydro-climatic conditions have compromised crop yields and food security, severely affecting smallholder farmers’ well-being. Enhancing their adaptive capacity and resilience is therefore essential for sustainable development. This study assesses smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change-induced extreme weather events in rural areas of the Lake Chad Basin using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys of 200 farming households across four villages in the Diffa region of Niger. The LVI was calculated using nine components: sociodemographic profile, education and housing, livelihood strategy, social networks, food, water resources, health, land resources, and disasters and climate variability. Results showed that farmers in Kangarwa were the most vulnerable (LVI = 0.58), while those in Boulangou were the least vulnerable (0.51). Digargo and Mamari had similar vulnerability levels (0.55 and 0.56, respectively). Overall, farmers in all four villages were moderately vulnerable. Kangarwa’s higher vulnerability was mainly associated with social networks (0.81), livelihood strategy (0.75), and land resources (0.75). In Boulangou, low vulnerability was linked to water resources (0.12) and sociodemographic conditions (0.35), although land (0.69), livelihood strategy (0.67), and food (0.65) increased vulnerability. These findings can inform interventions to strengthen smallholder farmers’ resilience. Diversifying livelihoods and adopting climate-smart agriculture technologies could enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability in highly affected areas.","气候变化影响着农业生产，而撒哈拉以南非洲80%的农村社区依赖农业维持生计。在乍得湖流域，近期水文气候条件的波动已危及作物产量和粮食安全，严重影响小农户的福祉。因此，增强其适应能力和韧性对可持续发展至关重要。本研究采用生计脆弱性指数（LVI）评估乍得湖流域农村地区小农户对气候变化引发的极端天气事件的脆弱性。数据通过对尼日尔迪法地区四个村庄200个农户的问卷调查收集。LVI基于九个组成部分计算：社会人口特征、教育与住房、生计策略、社会网络、粮食、水资源、健康、土地资源以及灾害与气候变异性。结果表明，Kangarwa的农户最为脆弱（LVI = 0.58），而Boulangou的农户脆弱性最低（0.51）。Digargo和Mamari的脆弱性水平相近（分别为0.55和0.56）。总体而言，四个村庄的农户均处于中等脆弱水平。Kangarwa较高的脆弱性主要与社会网络（0.81）、生计策略（0.75）和土地资源（0.75）相关。在Boulangou，低脆弱性与水资源（0.12）和社会人口条件（0.35）相关，尽管土地（0.69）、生计策略（0.67）和粮食（0.65）增加了脆弱性。这些发现可为增强小农户韧性的干预措施提供依据。生计多样化和采用气候智能型农业技术可增强高受影响地区的适应能力并降低脆弱性。","Journal of Experimental Agriculture International","2026-10-14T00:00:00Z",65,{"impact":152,"substance":247,"depth":248,"authority":19,"freshness":65,"relevant":22,"comment":357},"基于200户问卷的LVI实证研究，数据与结论具体，但属区域性学术成果，公共影响有限。",[359],{"name":353,"url":350},[100,157,181,361,362],"气候适应","生计脆弱性",{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},[365],{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":367},{"candidates":368,"agricultural_evidence":58},[369,373,377,381,386],{"code":45,"score":248,"supported":58,"title":370,"abstract":371,"tags":372},[183],[181,183],[181,361],{"code":39,"score":20,"supported":58,"title":374,"abstract":375,"tags":376},[175],[157,175],[157],{"code":104,"score":21,"supported":58,"title":378,"abstract":379,"tags":380},[],[100,170],[100],{"code":323,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":382,"abstract":383,"tags":385},[],[384],"水资源",[],{"code":207,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":387,"abstract":388,"tags":389},[],[210],[],[391,392],"尼日尔 乍得湖流域 小农户","生计脆弱性指数 LVI","尼日尔乍得湖流域小农户-4983","10.9734\u002Fjeai\u002F2026\u002Fv48i104567",{"doi":394,"openalex_id":396,"authors":397,"venue":353,"cited_by_count":216,"oa_url":350,"card":408,"direction":235,"ingested_from":236},"W7221748179",[398,400,402,404,406],{"name":399,"orcid":8},"Issiaka Issaharou Matchi",{"name":401,"orcid":8},"I. Oumarou Abdou",{"name":403,"orcid":8},"H. Rabiou",{"name":405,"orcid":8},"A. Mahamane",{"name":407,"orcid":8},"M. Saadou",{"tldr":409,"method":410,"finding":411,"direction":344,"opportunity":412},"用生计脆弱性指数评估尼日尔迪法地区四个村庄小农户的气候变化脆弱性。","问卷调查200户农户，计算含9个成分的生计脆弱性指数（LVI）。","四村农户均呈中度脆弱，Kangarwa最脆弱（0.58），Boulangou最低（0.51）。","可结合气候智能农业技术与生计多样化，在脆弱性高发区开展干预效果评估研究。","2026-10-15T23:30:08.248266Z",{"id":415,"title":416,"url":417,"summary":418,"summary_zh":8,"content":8,"source_name":419,"source_url":8,"published_at":420,"category":149,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":421,"score_detail":422,"sources":425,"tags":427,"primary_topic":432,"secondary_topics":433,"classification":441,"search_phrases":471,"slug":474,"view_count":216,"doi":8,"paper":475,"created_at":483},4735,"干旱区农技社会化服务试点政策对县域粮食生产的激励效应——基于双重机器学习因果推断","http:\u002F\u002Fwww.qikanvip.com\u002Fqkml\u002F176878.html","基于2015至2023年200县面板,采用双重差分与双重机器学习方法评估2021年农业社会化服务试点政策。结果显示政策显著促进县域粮食产量,但呈短期脉冲效应,中等收入地区呈倒U型,主要依赖规模扩张而非效率扩张路径","干旱区资源与环境 2026-10-08","2026-10-08T00:00:00Z",78,{"impact":18,"substance":423,"depth":18,"authority":57,"freshness":85,"relevant":22,"comment":424},22,"基于200县面板与双重机器学习的因果推断，方法新颖、数据扎实，对评估社会化服务试点政策有实质参考价值。",[426],{"name":419,"url":417},[100,428,429,430,431],"因果推断","县域农业","农业社会化服务","试点政策",{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},[434,440],{"code":435,"slug":436,"name":437,"path":438,"parent_code":439},"I2","agricultural-ai","农业AI与大模型","\u002Ftopic\u002Fdigital-agriculture\u002Fagricultural-ai","I",{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":442},{"candidates":443,"agricultural_evidence":58},[444,448,453,458,462,466],{"code":39,"score":19,"supported":58,"title":445,"abstract":446,"tags":447},[67],[67],[430],{"code":435,"score":122,"supported":58,"title":449,"abstract":451,"tags":452},[450],"机器学习",[450],[],{"code":454,"score":65,"supported":58,"title":455,"abstract":456,"tags":457},"I7",[428],[],[428],{"code":45,"score":152,"supported":58,"title":459,"abstract":460,"tags":461},[182],[],[],{"code":104,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":463,"abstract":464,"tags":465},[],[],[100],{"code":467,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":468,"abstract":469,"tags":470},"G4",[],[],[429],[472,473],"农业社会化服务试点 县域粮食产量","双重机器学习 粮食生产","农业社会化服务试点县域粮食产量-4735",{"doi":8,"openalex_id":8,"authors":476,"venue":8,"cited_by_count":216,"oa_url":8,"card":477,"direction":233,"ingested_from":482},[],{"tldr":478,"method":479,"finding":480,"direction":233,"opportunity":481},"评估干旱区农技社会化服务试点政策对县域粮食产量的因果效应。","2015-2023年200县面板，双重差分与双重机器学习因果推断。","政策显著增产但为短期脉冲效应，中等收入地区呈倒U型，靠规模扩张而非效率提升。","可探究政策长期效应衰减机制及如何转向效率提升型服务模式。","agent","2026-10-12T00:11:14.975039Z",{"id":485,"title":486,"url":487,"summary":488,"summary_zh":489,"content":8,"source_name":490,"source_url":487,"published_at":491,"category":149,"cover_url":8,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":492,"score_detail":493,"sources":495,"tags":497,"primary_topic":501,"secondary_topics":502,"classification":504,"search_phrases":541,"slug":544,"view_count":139,"doi":545,"paper":546,"created_at":562},3148,"Factors influencing the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices among smallholder farmers in Melani and Msobomvu villages, Eastern Cape Province","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1869050","Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is widely recognised as an effective approach for improving agricultural productivity, strengthening resilience to climate change, and enhancing food security among small-scale farmers. However, the adoption of CSA practices remains uneven in many rural communities, including Melani and Msobomvu villages in the Raymond Mhlaba Local Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. This study investigated farmers’ awareness and understanding of climate-smart agriculture practices, identified the barriers limiting CSA adoption, and examined the socio-economic and institutional factors influencing adoption decisions. A descriptive research design within a quantitative research approach was employed. Data were collected from 158 randomly selected small-scale farmers using a structured questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations. One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the significance of selected socio-economic and institutional factors influencing CSA adoption. The findings revealed that respondents generally possessed a good awareness and understanding of climate-smart agriculture practices, although awareness differed across technologies. Rainwater harvesting (80%), crop diversification (71%), conservation agriculture (68%), and soil conservation (68%) recorded the highest levels of awareness, whereas awareness was comparatively lower for drought-tolerant crop varieties (57%), climate information services (55%), and improved livestock management (49%). The study further identified farmer resistance to change, inadequate financial resources, and limited extension materials as the major barriers limiting CSA adoption. One-Way ANOVA indicated that financial constraints, market access, knowledge of climate-smart agriculture technologies, and extension support were statistically significant factors influencing adoption decisions ( p \u003C 0.05).","气候智慧型农业（Climate-Smart Agriculture, CSA）被广泛认为是提高农业生产率、增强气候变化适应能力以及改善小农户粮食安全的有效途径。然而，在许多农村社区，包括南非东开普省雷蒙德·姆拉巴地方自治市内的梅拉尼和姆索博姆武两个村庄，气候智慧型农业实践的采用仍然不均衡。本研究调查了农民对气候智慧型农业实践的认识和理解，识别了限制气候智慧型农业采用的障碍，并考察了影响采用决策的社会经济与制度因素。研究采用定量研究路径下的描述性研究设计，通过结构化问卷从158名随机选取的小农户中收集数据，并运用描述性统计方法（包括频数、百分比、均值和标准差）进行分析。采用单因素方差分析（One-Way ANOVA）确定所选社会经济与制度因素对气候智慧型农业采用影响的显著性。研究结果表明，受访者总体上对气候智慧型农业实践具有较好的认识和理解，但不同技术之间的认知水平存在差异。雨水收集（80%）、作物多样化（71%）、保护性农业（68%）和土壤保持（68%）的认知度最高，而耐旱作物品种（57%）、气候信息服务（55%）和改良牲畜管理（49%）的认知度相对较低。研究进一步识别出农民对变革的抵触、资金资源不足以及推广材料有限是限制气候智慧型农业采用的主要障碍。单因素方差分析表明，资金约束、市场准入、气候智慧型农业技术知识和推广支持是影响采用决策的统计显著因素（p \u003C 0.05）。","Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",63,{"impact":152,"substance":18,"depth":20,"authority":249,"freshness":65,"relevant":22,"comment":494},"以南非东开普省两个村庄158户小农为样本，量化了气候智慧农业采纳的显著影响因素，方法规范、数据具体，但属区域案例研究，公共影响层级有限。",[496],{"name":490,"url":487},[157,158,498,499,500],"技术采纳","南非农业","推广服务",{"code":39,"slug":40,"name":41,"path":42,"parent_code":43},[503],{"code":45,"slug":46,"name":47,"path":48,"parent_code":49},{"status":51,"locked":14,"version":52,"method":53,"evidence":505},{"candidates":506,"agricultural_evidence":58},[507,511,515,519,523,527,531,537],{"code":39,"score":19,"supported":58,"title":508,"abstract":509,"tags":510},[175],[157],[157],{"code":207,"score":122,"supported":58,"title":512,"abstract":513,"tags":514},[210],[210],[],{"code":45,"score":13,"supported":58,"title":516,"abstract":517,"tags":518},[],[181,183,184],[158],{"code":104,"score":85,"supported":58,"title":520,"abstract":521,"tags":522},[],[100,170],[],{"code":278,"score":85,"supported":58,"title":524,"abstract":525,"tags":526},[],[281,282],[],{"code":295,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":528,"abstract":529,"tags":530},[],[298],[],{"code":532,"score":139,"supported":58,"title":533,"abstract":534,"tags":536},"H8",[],[535],"conservation agriculture",[],{"code":187,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":538,"abstract":539,"tags":540},[],[],[498],[542,543],"Eastern Cape 小农户 气候智慧农业","Raymond Mhlaba 农业技术采纳","EasternCape小农户气候智慧农业-3148","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1869050",{"doi":545,"openalex_id":547,"authors":548,"venue":490,"cited_by_count":216,"oa_url":487,"card":557,"direction":235,"ingested_from":236},"W7213921129",[549,551,554],{"name":550,"orcid":8},"Sibonise Lufume",{"name":552,"orcid":553},"L. Gwala","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-0186-050X",{"name":555,"orcid":556},"Leocadia Zhou","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-0344-4710",{"tldr":558,"method":559,"finding":560,"direction":233,"opportunity":561},"研究南非东开普省小农户对气候智慧型农业的认知、障碍及影响因素。","对158户小农问卷调查，用描述统计与单因素方差分析。","农户认知较高但采用不均，资金、市场、知识与推广支持显著影响采用。","可探索气候信息服务与推广数字化如何降低小农采用气候智慧型农业的障碍。","2026-09-22T23:30:08.462412Z"]