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A3017F2F331F7F14DEFC59D29D081BB5.jpg](https:\u002F\u002Fhome.jaas.ac.cn\u002Fcms_files\u002Ffilemanager\u002F191335345\u002Fpicture\u002F20268\u002FSa52f10e390324c7b9184546c22090621-800.jpg)](https:\u002F\u002Fhome.jaas.ac.cn\u002Fcms_files\u002Ffilemanager\u002F191335345\u002Fpicture\u002F20268\u002Fa52f10e390324c7b9184546c22090621.jpg)\n\n朱艳以“建设气候韧性农业：中国江苏的经验与策略”为题重点分享了我省在应对气候变化挑战探索出的“前沿育种—良法配套—智慧赋能”路径。一是精准培育气候适应型品种，重点创制耐高温、耐盐碱、节水型优质耐逆种质，育成了一批高产抗逆的水稻、小麦及大豆等新品种，并加快建设江苏省农业种质资源综合基因库，筑牢应对气候变化的“种质”防线。二是精细化开展农艺管理，集成示范“麦—稻周年大面积丰产增效技术体系”，推广水稻集中育秧、小麦适期晚播等避灾技术，同时落实轮作休耕等绿色制度，打好可持续的气候适应“组合拳”。三是AI融入全环节智能管控，构建作物系统模拟模型，研发粮食作物逆境灾害动态预警与定量评估技术，覆盖稻麦全链条生产管理，形成应对气候变化的智慧体系。她还分享了我院与国际农业研究磋商组织（CGIAR）、国际农业模型比较与改进项目（AgMIP）等海外科教机构和国际组织联合开展应对气候变化的国际合作进展。\n\n朱艳表示，江苏省农业科学院愿与全球农业科学家一道，推动建立应对气候变化的全球知识共享平台，贡献更多可复制、可推广的“江苏方案”。\n\n[![Image 2: 朱院-世界农业科技创新大会2.jpg](https:\u002F\u002Fhome.jaas.ac.cn\u002Fcms_files\u002Ffilemanager\u002F191335345\u002Fpicture\u002F20268\u002FS4a20548ff6c34efe97426fb6933e1a41-800.jpg)](https:\u002F\u002Fhome.jaas.ac.cn\u002Fcms_files\u002Ffilemanager\u002F191335345\u002Fpicture\u002F20268\u002F4a20548ff6c34efe97426fb6933e1a41.jpg)\n\n世界农业科技创新大会（WAFI）由北京市委市政府发起，以“创新农业 共享未来”为宗旨，聚焦促进全球农食系统转型的前沿创新，深入推动产学研互动和国际交流合作。自2023年启动以来，大会已成功举办4届，联合国粮农组织、世界粮食计划署等国际机构深度参与，赢得国内外同仁的高度认可，已成为全球农业科技领域具有实质影响力的高端对话平台之一。","江苏省农业科学院","2026-09-18T06:56:00Z",25,74,{"impact":80,"substance":81,"depth":82,"authority":19,"freshness":67,"relevant":21,"comment":83},22,18,15,"省级农科院院长在国际大会分享气候韧性农业的江苏路径，内容具体、有国际合作信息，但属会议报道，时效略过，可作主题聚合素材而非头条精选。",[85,86],{"name":75,"url":72},{"name":87,"url":88},"江苏省农业科学院 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科学网新闻频道](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fnews.jpg)](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002F)\n\n[生命科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Flife\u002F) | [医学科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fmedicine\u002F) | [化学科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fchemistry\u002F) | [工程材料](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fmaterial\u002F) | [信息科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Finformation\u002F) | [地球科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fearth\u002F) | [数理科学](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fmathematics\u002F) | [管理综合](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002Fpolicy\u002F)[站内规定](https:\u002F\u002Fblog.sciencenet.cn\u002Fblog-45-1064777.html) | [手机版](https:\u002F\u002Fwap.sciencenet.cn\u002F)\n\n[首页](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [新闻](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [博客](https:\u002F\u002Fblog.sciencenet.cn\u002Fblog.php) | [院士](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fys\u002F) | [人才](https:\u002F\u002Ftalent.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [会议](https:\u002F\u002Fmeeting.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [基金·项目](https:\u002F\u002Ffund.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [论文](https:\u002F\u002Fpaper.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [绘图](https:\u002F\u002Fvisual-web.sciencenet.cn\u002F) | [视频·直播](https:\u002F\u002Fblog.sciencenet.cn\u002Fblog.php?mod=video) | [小柯机器人](https:\u002F\u002Fpaper.sciencenet.cn\u002FAInews) | [医学科普](https:\u002F\u002Fyxkp.sciencenet.cn\u002F)\n\n作者：李晨 来源：中国科学报 发布时间：2026\u002F9\u002F17 14:01:44 选择字号：小 中 大 2026世界农业科技创新大会在北京平谷举行 9月17日，2026世界农业科技创新大会（WAFI）在北京平谷开幕。大会由中国农业大学、北京市农业农村局、北京市平谷区人民政府、国际农业研究磋商组织联合主办，北京市平谷区世农创农业科技中心承办。大会为期3天，以“农食系统绿色健康转型”为主题，采用“1+8+1+N”总体架构，共有来自30余个国际组织、科研机构和企业商会的近300位重要外宾及优秀青年代表参会发言，国内高校科研院所、大型企业、行业协会超200人作报告或主题演讲，预计总参会人数超过1万人。与会嘉宾围绕粮食安全、绿色低碳、AI农业、营养健康等前沿议题开展深度研讨，直面全球农食系统转型现实挑战，共绘可持续发展新图景。 ![Image 2](https:\u002F\u002Frmtzx.sciencenet.cn\u002Fkxwsprint\u002F6aab5edee4b078fce44b0a99.jpg)开幕式现场。李晨摄 教育部党组成员、副部长任友群，农业农村部党组成员、副部长张治礼，大会咨询委员会联席主席、世界粮食奖基金会荣誉主席Kenneth M. Quinn，中国农业大学党委书记、中国工程院院士钟登华，尼日尔前总理、非洲绿色革命联盟（AGRA）董事会成员Ibrahim Assane Mayaki，加蓬共和国农业部部长Pacome Kossy先后致辞，北京市副市长文献作开幕讲话。 大会创新发布环节集中推出6项覆盖技术方案、专家智库、国际报告的重要成果，为全球农食系统转型提供多元参考。中国工程院院士、中国农业大学教授张福锁发布《中国模式助力全球农业绿色转型：科技小院出海计划》；北京市平谷区委书记狄涛发布《农食一体、农医联动，农食系统绿色健康转型的平谷方案》；联合国粮食及农业组织首席经济学家Máximo Torero Cullen发布《联合国粮食及农业组织FAO创新报告》；国际热带农业研究所所长Simeon Ehui发布《国际农业磋商组织CGIAR创新报告》；联合国粮食及农业组织理事会独立主席Hans Hoogeveen发布《2026联合国可持续发展议程12.3报告》；非洲绿色革命联盟主席Alice Ruhweza发布《非洲绿色革命联盟AGRA创新报告》。 大会期间，资源循环与粮食减损、AI驱动全球农业转型、农业绿色可持续发展、膳食营养产业升级、农业创新与南南合作、高级别政策对话6场全体会议接续举行。多场次专题会议、平行会议、国际交流活动，以及世界农业科技创新博览会和WAFI公益林、巡游、农食汇、健康跑、市集等配套活动同期举办，着力打造集学术研讨、成果展示、产业对接、国际合作于一体的开放平台。 自2023年首届大会在中国举办至今，世界农业科技创新大会已成长为全球农食领域具有广泛影响力的高端国际交流平台。大会立足北京国际科技创新中心、农业中关村建设实践，链接全球创新资源，推动理念互鉴、技术互通、项目落地，为推动全球粮食安全治理、促进农食领域国际合作贡献平台力量。 版权声明：凡本网注明“来源：中国科学报、科学网、科学新闻杂志”的所有作品，网站转载，请在正文上方注明来源和作者，且不得对内容作实质性改动；微信公众号、头条号等新媒体平台，转载请联系授权。邮箱：shouquan@stimes.cn。\n\n打印 发E-mail给：\n\n以下评论只代表网友个人观点，不代表科学网观点。\n\n[![Image 3](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fimages\u002Fnewcomm.gif)](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtml\u002Fcomment.aspx?id=571635)\n\n相关新闻 相关论文\n*   1\n*   [大脑出了问题，答案藏在代谢里？](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571633.shtm)\n\n*   2\n*   [著名医学教育家、原北京医科大学副校长程伯基逝世](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571632.shtm)\n\n*   3\n*   [OpenAI调整安全问题披露机制](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571630.shtm)\n\n*   4\n*   [星舰第14次试飞定档9月22日](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571629.shtm)\n\n*   5\n*   [岳杰勇已任河南大学党委书记](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571626.shtm)\n\n*   6\n*   [“破茧”功能，何以真正破除“信息茧房”](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571625.shtm)\n\n*   7\n*   [人类开启“追日”新时代](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571613.shtm)\n\n*   8\n*   [研究揭示甲烷部分氧化制合成气驱动因素](https:\u002F\u002Fnews.sciencenet.cn\u002Fhtmlnews\u002F2026\u002F9\u002F571610.shtm)\n\n*   1\n*   [厦大梁汉锋，阿卜杜拉国王科大 Husam N. 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中国科学报","2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",85,{"impact":16,"substance":17,"depth":82,"authority":144,"freshness":12,"relevant":21,"comment":201},"全球性农业科技大会开幕并集中发布6项国际成果，信源权威、时效性强，具备进入每日精选的价值。",[203],{"name":197,"url":194},[27,205,206,29,30,207],"粮食安全","科技小院","南南合作",{"code":209,"slug":210,"name":211,"path":212,"parent_code":213},"G1","extension-transfer","农技推广与成果转化","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Fextension-transfer","G",[],{"status":100,"locked":13,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":216},{"candidates":217,"agricultural_evidence":58},[218,222,226,231,235],{"code":209,"score":131,"supported":58,"title":219,"abstract":220,"tags":221},[],[206],[206],{"code":54,"score":168,"supported":58,"title":223,"abstract":224,"tags":225},[],[176],[],{"code":227,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":228,"abstract":229,"tags":230},"A8",[],[],[205],{"code":39,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":232,"abstract":233,"tags":234},[],[],[30],{"code":49,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":236,"abstract":237,"tags":238},[],[],[27],[240,241],"世界农业科技创新大会 农业人工智能 农食系统转型 南南合作","世界农业科技创新大会 农业人工智能","世界农业科技创新大会农业人工智能农食系统转型南南合作-2814","2026-09-18T00:03:24.558280Z",{"id":245,"title":246,"url":247,"summary":248,"summary_zh":249,"content":8,"source_name":250,"source_url":247,"published_at":251,"category":252,"cover_url":8,"hotness":12,"is_selected":13,"score":253,"score_detail":254,"sources":258,"tags":260,"primary_topic":264,"secondary_topics":269,"classification":271,"search_phrases":288,"slug":291,"view_count":292,"doi":293,"paper":294,"created_at":310},5592,"Evaluation of Concept-Rank Collapse Audits for Computer Vision Agriculture Disease Classifiers Under Low-Label Regimes: An Interpretability Capacity Bound for Smallholder Fungicide Selectivity","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545193","Concept-based interpretability methods for plant-disease classifiers are typically evaluated by whether their concept activations correlate with human-annotated labels, but this criterion is silent on a prior question: whether the classifier's internal representation retains enough concept-rank structure for any audit to be informative. the present analysis formalises that prior question as an interpretability capacity bound. A classifier is modelled as a concept-rank operator whose singular values govern how much concept-level signal survives the projection from pixel space to class logits, and a collapse audit is defined as the ratio of retained concept-rank energy to total concept energy. Under a low-label regime, where concept annotations are scarce and the audit must be estimated from few labelled examples, the bound predicts that audit reliability degrades as a function of the concept-rank spectrum and the label budget. The analysis is a theoretical and methodological contribution: it derives the bound, states the conditions under which a collapse audit is identifiable, and characterises the operating characteristics of the audit as a decision procedure under a declared variance structure (between-cluster SD = 6.0, residual SD = 4.5, intraclass correlation = 0.64). Power was estimated across 2000 design cells for cluster counts of 8, 16, 24 and 32 and effect sizes of 3, 5 and 8 percentage points; 52 clusters were required for 5 percentage points at 80% power. The bound reframes concept audits as capacity tests rather than fidelity tests, with consequences for how smallholder fungicide-selectivity decisions should be supported by interpretable disease classifiers.","面向植物病害分类器的基于概念的可解释性方法，通常以其概念激活是否与人工标注标签相关作为评价标准，但该标准对一个更先前的问题保持沉默：分类器的内部表征是否保留了足够的概念秩结构，从而使任何审计具有信息量。本分析将该先前问题形式化为一个可解释性容量上界。分类器被建模为概念秩算子，其奇异值支配着从像素空间到类别logits的投影中概念级信号得以保留的程度，并将坍缩审计定义为保留的概念秩能量与总概念能量之比。在低标签情形下，概念标注稀缺且审计必须由少量标注样本估计，该上界预测审计可靠性会随概念秩谱和标签预算的函数而退化。本分析是一项理论和方法论贡献：推导出该上界，陈述坍缩审计可识别的条件，并在声明的方差结构（簇间SD = 6.0，残差SD = 4.5，组内相关系数 = 0.64）下刻画审计作为决策程序的操作特征。在2000个设计单元中，针对簇数为8、16、24和32以及效应量为3、5和8个百分点的情形估计了功效；在80%功效下达到5个百分点需要52个簇。该上界将概念审计重新框定为容量检验而非保真度检验，并对可解释病害分类器应如何支持小农杀菌剂选择性决策具有启示意义。","Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","2026-10-21T00:00:00Z","论文",69,{"impact":20,"substance":255,"depth":81,"authority":256,"freshness":12,"relevant":21,"comment":257},21,12,"理论方法论文，提出可解释性容量上界并给出审计功效分析，对智慧农业病害识别可信度有参考价值，但属小众方法学研究、缺乏田间实证，暂不宜进入每日精选。",[259],{"name":250,"url":247},[26,27,261,262,263],"小农户","植物病害识别","可解释性",{"code":265,"slug":266,"name":267,"path":268,"parent_code":213},"G2","farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services",[270],{"code":49,"slug":153,"name":154,"path":155,"parent_code":156},{"status":100,"locked":13,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":272},{"candidates":273,"agricultural_evidence":58},[274,279,284],{"code":265,"score":256,"supported":58,"title":275,"abstract":277,"tags":278},[276],"smallholder",[276],[261],{"code":49,"score":12,"supported":58,"title":280,"abstract":282,"tags":283},[281],"computer vision",[],[27,262],{"code":44,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":285,"abstract":286,"tags":287},[],[],[26],[289,290],"农业人工智能 植物病害识别 可解释性 智慧农业","农业人工智能 植物病害识别","农业人工智能植物病害识别可解释性智慧农业-5592",0,"10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545193",{"doi":293,"openalex_id":295,"authors":296,"venue":250,"cited_by_count":292,"oa_url":247,"card":303,"direction":307,"ingested_from":309},"W7223137323",[297,299,301],{"name":298,"orcid":8},"Akshay Ramgoolam",{"name":300,"orcid":8},"Priya Bundhoo Appadoo",{"name":302,"orcid":8},"Jean-Noël LEspérance",{"tldr":304,"method":305,"finding":306,"direction":307,"opportunity":308},"提出可解释性容量上界，评估低标签下概念秩崩溃审计的可靠性。","将分类器建模为概念秩算子，推导容量上界并做2000格功效模拟。","审计可靠性随概念秩谱与标签预算下降；5个百分点效应需52个聚类达80%功效。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可将容量上界用于小农户杀菌剂选择性决策的可解释模型审计与标签预算设计。","openalex","2026-10-22T11:21:10.425290Z",{"id":312,"title":313,"url":314,"summary":315,"summary_zh":316,"content":8,"source_name":250,"source_url":314,"published_at":251,"category":252,"cover_url":8,"hotness":12,"is_selected":13,"score":253,"score_detail":317,"sources":320,"tags":322,"primary_topic":326,"secondary_topics":331,"classification":333,"search_phrases":358,"slug":361,"view_count":292,"doi":362,"paper":363,"created_at":375},5591,"Hierarchical Conformal Risk Control for Artificial Intelligence Agriculture Irrigation Scheduling Under Unmodeled Infiltration: A Computer Safety-Guarantee Evaluation","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23543665","Irrigation scheduling algorithms that rely on soil-moisture forecasts are vulnerable to unmodeled infiltration, the process by which water bypasses the root zone through preferential pathways that resistance-based soil models cannot represent. The framework is evaluated through a replication-based design study that characterises the operating characteristics of the before-after-control-impact estimator used to audit scheduler performance, under a declared variance structure with between-cluster standard deviation 6.0, residual standard deviation 4.5 and intraclass correlation 0.64. Power was estimated across 2000 design cells spanning cluster counts of 8, 16, 24 and 32 and effect sizes of 3, 5 and 8 percentage points. The analysis indicates that 54 clusters are required to detect a 5-percentage-point effect at 80% power, and that the minimum detectable effect declines steeply as cluster count rises from 8 to 32. The contribution is a formal safety guarantee for irrigation decision support that remains valid when the infiltration model is wrong, together with an audit design that makes the guarantee empirically checkable.","依赖土壤湿度预报的灌溉调度算法容易受到未建模入渗的影响，即水分通过优先路径绕过根区的过程，而基于阻力的土壤模型无法表征这一过程。该框架通过一项基于重复的设计研究进行评估，该研究刻画了用于审计调度器性能的前后对照影响估计量的运行特性，其所依据的声明方差结构为：组间标准差6.0、残差标准差4.5、组内相关系数0.64。功效估计覆盖2000个设计单元，涵盖聚类数8、16、24和32以及效应量3、5和8个百分点。分析表明，在80%功效下检测5个百分点效应需要54个聚类，且最小可检测效应随聚类数从8增至32而急剧下降。本文的贡献在于为灌溉决策支持提供了一种正式的安全保证，该保证在入渗模型错误时仍然有效，同时提出了一种使该保证可经实证检验的审计设计。",{"impact":20,"substance":80,"depth":81,"authority":256,"freshness":318,"relevant":21,"comment":319},9,"该研究提出在入渗模型失配条件下仍有效的灌溉决策安全保证框架，并给出可审计的试验设计，方法新颖、结论可靠，但属细分方法学研究，产业影响有限，适合作为专业精选而非头条。",[321],{"name":250,"url":314},[26,27,323,324,325],"灌溉决策","安全保证","试验设计",{"code":327,"slug":328,"name":329,"path":330,"parent_code":97},"H3","irrigation","水资源与灌溉","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Firrigation",[332],{"code":49,"slug":153,"name":154,"path":155,"parent_code":156},{"status":100,"locked":13,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":334},{"candidates":335,"agricultural_evidence":58},[336,341,347,354],{"code":327,"score":82,"supported":58,"title":337,"abstract":338,"tags":340},[328],[339,328],"灌溉",[323],{"code":49,"score":256,"supported":58,"title":342,"abstract":344,"tags":346},[343],"artificial intelligence",[345],"decision support",[27],{"code":348,"score":67,"supported":58,"title":349,"abstract":350,"tags":353},"H2",[],[351,352],"土壤","soil",[],{"code":44,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":355,"abstract":356,"tags":357},[],[],[26],[359,360],"灌溉调度 安全保证","农业人工智能 安全保证 智慧农业 灌溉决策","灌溉调度安全保证-5591","10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23543665",{"doi":362,"openalex_id":364,"authors":365,"venue":250,"cited_by_count":292,"oa_url":314,"card":370,"direction":307,"ingested_from":309},"W7223131205",[366,368],{"name":367,"orcid":8},"Nassima Benkhelifa",{"name":369,"orcid":8},"Yacine Aït Ahmed",{"tldr":371,"method":372,"finding":373,"direction":307,"opportunity":374},"提出分层保形风险控制，为未建模入渗下的灌溉调度提供安全保证。","分层保形风险控制与基于重复设计的BACI审计，2000个设计单元功效分析。","检测5个百分点效应需54个集群，最小可检测效应随集群数增加陡降。","可将保形风险控制扩展到其他未建模扰动下的农业决策安全保证与审计设计。","2026-10-22T11:21:10.283561Z",{"id":377,"title":378,"url":379,"summary":380,"summary_zh":381,"content":8,"source_name":250,"source_url":379,"published_at":251,"category":252,"cover_url":8,"hotness":12,"is_selected":13,"score":382,"score_detail":383,"sources":385,"tags":387,"primary_topic":390,"secondary_topics":391,"classification":393,"search_phrases":408,"slug":411,"view_count":292,"doi":412,"paper":413,"created_at":427},5590,"Evaluation of Concept-Probe Temporal-Stability Audits for Computer Vision Agriculture Disease Classifiers Under Seasonal Phenology Drift: An Interpretability Decay Bound for Smallholder Fungicide Timing","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545234","Concept-probe audits are increasingly used to certify that a crop-disease classifier's internal representations track the pathological concepts a smallholder would act on, but a probe certified at one point in the season may silently decouple from those concepts as phenology shifts the visual statistics of the field. the present analysis treats that decoupling as a formal object. It defines a temporal-stability audit as a sequence of concept-probe accuracies measured across defined phenological windows, and it derives an interpretability decay bound: the rate at which probe accuracy can fall before the fungicide-timing decision it is meant to support becomes unreliable. The bound is expressed as a function of the probe's initial margin, the drift in concept prevalence between windows, and the classifier's sensitivity to the drifted features, and it yields a certified audit interval rather than a single-point certificate. The paper then characterises the operating characteristics of the audit design under a declared variance structure, using a replication-based evaluation of the before-after-control-impact estimator with between-cluster SD = 6.0, residual SD = 4.5 and intraclass correlation = 0.64. Power was estimated across 2000 design cells over cluster counts of 8, 16, 24 and 32 and effect sizes of 3, 5 and 8 percentage points; 54 clusters were required for 5 percentage points at 80% power. The contribution is a decision-theoretic account of when a concept-probe certificate expires, and a design rule for scheduling re-audits across the season.","概念探针审计（concept-probe audit）日益被用于验证作物病害分类器的内部表征是否追踪小农户会据以采取行动的病理学概念，但在生长季某一时点获得认证的探针，可能随着物候变化改变田间的视觉统计特征而悄然与这些概念脱钩。本分析将这种脱钩视为一个形式化对象。它将时间稳定性审计（temporal-stability audit）定义为在既定物候窗口内测量的一系列概念探针准确率，并推导出一个可解释性衰减界限（interpretability decay bound）：即探针准确率在其所支持的杀菌剂施用时机决策变得不可靠之前所能下降的速率。该界限表示为探针初始裕度、窗口间概念流行率漂移以及分类器对漂移特征敏感度的函数，并给出一个经认证的审计区间而非单点认证。随后，本文在声明的方差结构下刻画该审计设计的运行特征，采用基于重复的前后对照影响估计量评估，其中组间标准差 = 6.0、残差标准差 = 4.5、组内相关系数 = 0.64。功效在 2000 个设计单元上估计，聚类数取 8、16、24 和 32，效应量取 3、5 和 8 个百分点；在 80% 功效下达到 5 个百分点需要 54 个聚类。本文的贡献在于从决策论角度阐明概念探针认证何时失效，并给出在整个生长季内安排重新审计的设计规则。",70,{"impact":20,"substance":80,"depth":81,"authority":256,"freshness":12,"relevant":21,"comment":384},"该论文提出概念探针审计的时序稳定性框架与可解释性衰减界，方法新颖、统计设计扎实，但属小众方法论研究，产业影响有限，适合作为专业精选而非头条。",[386],{"name":250,"url":379},[26,27,261,388,389],"作物病害识别","模型审计",{"code":265,"slug":266,"name":267,"path":268,"parent_code":213},[392],{"code":49,"slug":153,"name":154,"path":155,"parent_code":156},{"status":100,"locked":13,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":394},{"candidates":395,"agricultural_evidence":58},[396,400,404],{"code":265,"score":82,"supported":58,"title":397,"abstract":398,"tags":399},[276],[261,276],[261],{"code":49,"score":12,"supported":58,"title":401,"abstract":402,"tags":403},[281],[],[388,27],{"code":44,"score":21,"supported":13,"title":405,"abstract":406,"tags":407},[],[],[26],[409,410],"概念探针 时序稳定性 作物病害分类器","杀菌剂 施药时机 可解释性衰减","概念探针时序稳定性作物病害分类器-5590","10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545234",{"doi":412,"openalex_id":414,"authors":415,"venue":250,"cited_by_count":292,"oa_url":379,"card":422,"direction":307,"ingested_from":309},"W7223088030",[416,418,420],{"name":417,"orcid":8},"Abdi-Basid Idriss Farah",{"name":419,"orcid":8},"Amina Abdillahi Guedi",{"name":421,"orcid":8},"Moussa Omar Youssouf",{"tldr":423,"method":424,"finding":425,"direction":307,"opportunity":426},"提出概念探针时间稳定性审计与可解释性衰减界，判断何时需重新审计。","定义跨物候窗口探针精度序列，推导衰减界，用BACI复制评估统计功效。","5个百分点效应需54个聚类达80%功效，审计证书会随物候漂移过期。","可将衰减界与再审计调度规则嵌入小农户杀菌剂时机决策支持系统，并验证跨作物泛化。","2026-10-22T11:21:08.978348Z"]