脱贫地区特色农业产业如何实现可持续价值链升级？来自农业新质生产力视角的实证检验

Abstract

Introduction:

Against the background of consolidating poverty-alleviation achievements and advancing sustainable rural revitalisation, improving value creation, processing extension, market circulation, supporting services, and resilience has become an important issue for specialty agricultural industries in poverty-alleviated areas.

Methods:

Using a county-level panel of poverty-alleviated counties from 2000 to 2023, this study constructed indices of agricultural new-quality productive forces (AQPF) and specialty agricultural value chain upgrading and examined the relationship between AQPF and sustainable specialty agricultural value chain upgrading.

Results:

The results show that AQPF is significantly associated with the transformation of specialty agricultural industries from single-stage production toward processing extension, circulation support, and value creation. This association is stronger in counties covered by the “One Village, One Product” demonstration program, suggesting a policy-reinforcement effect of platform-based support. Component-level evidence suggests that AQPF is more strongly associated with value-added capacity, processing extension, and market circulation than with all value chain components equally. The SLX-based spatial extension analysis further suggests regional interdependence, indicating that AQPF conditions in spatially connected counties are also positively associated with local value chain upgrading.

Discussion:

These findings offer policy implications for strengthening AQPF, improving sustainable value chain support systems, optimising platform-based policy instruments, and promoting cross-county collaboration for inclusive rural development.

1 Introduction

In September 2023, the concept of “new-quality productive forces” was first advanced during a local inspection tour. Its connotation was systematically explained at the 11th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on 31 January 2024. It was defined as an advanced form of productivity led by innovation and characterised by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, in line with the new development philosophy. As policy deployment has deepened, the 2025 No. 1 Central Document further proposed to “guide the concentration of advanced production factors through scientific and technological innovation and develop agricultural new-quality productive forces according to local conditions,” embedding the logic of new-quality productive forces directly into the policy framework of agricultural and rural modernisation. In the same year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Plan for Accelerating the Building of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024–2035), which positions agricultural modernisation as a strategic framework for rural work and provides long-term institutional guidance for improving quality and efficiency in agriculture ().

Although AQPF originates from recent Chinese policy discourse, its analytical meaning can be connected to several established international theoretical traditions. First, from the perspective of endogenous growth theory, AQPF reflects the role of innovation, knowledge accumulation, and human capital in improving long-term productivity rather than relying only on conventional factor expansion (). Second, from the perspective of agricultural innovation systems, AQPF emphasises the interaction among technology, institutions, market actors, and rural organisations in transforming agricultural production and value creation (; ). Third, from the perspective of technological upgrading and value chain upgrading, AQPF captures the capacity of rural industries to move from primary production toward processing, circulation, branding, and service-support functions (; ). From the perspective of rural transformation, AQPF represents a broader shift from output-oriented agricultural growth to quality-oriented, efficiency-oriented, and resilience-oriented rural development (). Therefore, AQPF is not treated in this study as a purely policy-specific concept, but as a measurable county-level capability for innovation-driven agricultural productivity upgrading. It is generated by the joint improvement of new-type agricultural labourers, modern means of production, technological and financial factor allocation, facility-based production modes, and green low-carbon constraints.

Against this macro policy background, poverty-alleviated areas deserve particular attention. The 2021 Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Achieving the Effective Linkage between Consolidating and Expanding Poverty-Alleviation Achievements and Rural Revitalisation established a five-year transition period, emphasised dynamic monitoring and assistance to prevent a return to poverty, and required a shift in policy focus from concentrated poverty alleviation to comprehensive rural revitalization. This policy window means that poverty-alleviated counties must quickly build sustainable and risk-resilient income-generating industrial systems. Otherwise, market fluctuations, factor constraints, and natural disasters may amplify income instability, return-to-poverty risks, and development vulnerability ().

Many poverty-alleviated counties rely on locally distinctive agricultural products as an important industrial foundation for rural revitalisation. However, transforming these products into sustainable sources of income requires more than output expansion or the existence of a local specialty industry. From a value-chain perspective, higher-quality industrial development depends on whether local agricultural products can be connected with value addition, processing extension, organizational coordination, market circulation, and service-support functions (). Therefore, this study does not make a case-level diagnosis of all poverty-alleviated counties. Instead, it examines specialty agricultural value-chain upgrading as a measurable empirical construct, including raw-material supply, value-added capacity, processing extension, organizational carriers, and market circulation ().

This value-chain perspective is consistent with the broader agricultural value-chain literature. Agricultural value-chain upgrading in developing-country contexts is not limited to output expansion, but is shaped by value addition, chain-network structure, governance mechanisms, market access, and supporting services (). Sustainable food value-chain studies similarly argue that sustainable value chains require attention to value addition, market orientation, actor coordination, and sustainability (). From a rural transformation perspective, value-chain upgrading can improve the market participation and functional position of rural producers by strengthening value addition, actor coordination, market access, and supporting services. Food value-chain transformation also involves not only agricultural production but also processing, storage, logistics, wholesale, retail, and service-related activities (). Therefore, the practical issues examined in this study are translated into a measurable value-chain upgrading framework rather than presented as unsupported case-level diagnoses.

At the policy-instrument level, the national OVOP demonstration town program provides an observable policy setting for promoting agglomeration, standardisation, scale expansion, branding, and full-chain development in specialty industries. The 12th batch released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recognised 395 villages and towns and explicitly emphasised the need to “build full industrial chains and promote the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries” (). Since the first batch was announced in 2011, 12 batches have been released, covering 4,182 OVOP demonstration villages and towns across the nation. Therefore, this program represents an important policy environment affecting specialty value chain construction in poverty-alleviated counties and provides an institutional background for multi-period policy evaluation. To provide a visual overview of the empirical setting, Figure 1 presents the geographic distribution of the sampled poverty-alleviated counties, OVOP policy coverage, the spatial concentration of the study sample, and the neighbourhood structure used in the Moran’s I and SLX analyses.

Figure 1

Recent research on agricultural new-quality productive forces (AQPF) has mainly developed in two streams. The first stream constructs evaluation systems and measures regional levels and their evolution, providing a quantitative basis for comparing development levels and sources of regional differences (; ). The second stream examines mechanisms and influencing factors, including income growth and common prosperity, digital-economy empowerment, green transformation, and policy-path optimisation (; ; ). Compared with these studies, direct county-level evidence on value chain upgrading as a process-oriented outcome remains limited, particularly for poverty-alleviated areas, where the governance objectives are to supplement, extend, and strengthen industrial chains. Moreover, few studies combine staggered policy instruments and policy-intensity differences to identify dynamic policy associations and then examine whether such instruments strengthen the impact of AQPF on specialty agricultural value chain upgrading.

Responding to these policy and research gaps, this study focuses on poverty-alleviated counties and constructs a county-level panel for 2000–2023. AQPF is measured from three dimensions: new-type agricultural labourers, new-type agricultural means of production, and new-type agricultural objects and production modes. Specialty agricultural value chain upgrading is measured from five dimensions: raw-material supply, value-added capacity, processing extension, organizational carriers, and market circulation. In terms of empirical strategy, the study starts with a two-way fixed-effects benchmark model, followed by robustness checks, omitted-variable-bias sensitivity analysis, OVOP policy-reinforcement analysis, component-level evidence, and SLX-based spatial extension analysis. The study contributes by translating AQPF into a measurable county-level capability framework and linking it to the process-oriented upgrading of specialty agricultural value chains in poverty-alleviated counties.

Theoretically, this study contributes to the literature by translating the policy concept of AQPF into an internationally understandable analytical framework that links innovation-driven productivity growth, technological upgrading, agricultural innovation systems, and rural value chain transformation. Empirically, it builds a measurable and interpretable link between AQPF and specialty agricultural value chain upgrading in poverty-alleviated counties, offering evidence and policy implications for shifting from project-based support to value chain governance and capability-based empowerment.

2 Literature review and hypotheses

2.1 Conceptualizing agricultural new-quality productive forces

Existing studies have reached a relatively consistent understanding of agricultural new-quality productive forces. Its essence is not factor accumulation in the traditional sense, but a systematic leap in agricultural production methods, organizational forms, and industrial structures driven by technological innovation, advanced factor agglomeration, and factor recombination. This process aims to unify high efficiency with high quality. Studies on the theoretical origins, core connotations, and upgrading paths emphasise that the formation of AQPF depends on the coordination of technological progress and institutional supply, as well as the continued contribution of digital and green transformation to total factor productivity (; ; ; ; ). Further studies place AQPF within the broader narratives of building an agricultural powerhouse and advancing rural revitalisation, highlighting its strategic role in improving comprehensive grain production capacity, promoting green agricultural development, and advancing common prosperity. They also note that the practical implementation of AQPF is often constrained by factor misallocation, insufficient technology diffusion, and weak industrial-chain coordination (; ).

In this sense, AQPF can be understood as the agricultural sector expression of innovation-driven productivity transformation. It links the productivity logic of innovation and human capital with the agricultural innovation-system view that technology, institutions, producers, markets, and supporting organisations jointly shape agricultural transformation (; ; ). It also corresponds to the value chain upgrading perspective, because improvements in skills, technology, equipment, finance, and green production conditions can help rural industries move beyond primary production toward processing, coordination, circulation, and higher-value functions (; ; ).

2.2 Measurement of agricultural new-quality productive forces

At the measurement level, existing research generally constructs multidimensional indicator systems and synthesizes composite indices to assess AQPF, thereby identifying regional differences, spatial–temporal patterns, and influencing factors. Some studies have focused on indicator design and level measurement to evaluate the development level and regional gaps of AQPF (; ). Others have examined its spatial–temporal pattern and”agricultural-strengthening effect” from a broader spatial perspective, providing useful references for spatial correlation and spillover analysis ().

Studies also explain why different regions perform differently. These differences are often attributed to technology diffusion, factor mobility, and institutional environments. For example, research on agricultural technology diffusion and regional productivity gaps shows that agricultural technology does not spread automatically or evenly; its spatial diffusion is constrained by market linkages, organizational carriers, and institutional supply (). This provides an important theoretical basis for examining AQPF and its spatial spillovers at the county level.

2.3 AQPF and industrial upgrading

A growing body of empirical work has assessed the economic and social effects of AQPF from the perspective of outcome variables. One group of studies focuses on rural industrial revitalisation and finds that AQPF significantly promotes rural industrial revitalisation, with the digital economy potentially serving as a mediating channel and with effects varying across regions and development levels (). Another group extends the analysis to the broader framework of new-quality productive forces and shows that they promote industrial-structure upgrading. Technological innovation may act as a mediator, and the effects may exhibit threshold features or diminishing marginal effects. This suggests that the impact of new-quality productive forces on structural transformation is neither linear nor homogeneous but is shaped by development stages and institutional conditions ().

2.4 Value chain upgrading in poverty-alleviated areas

Research on the transition period after poverty alleviation suggests that the key task is to shift industrial development in poverty-alleviated areas from short-term support toward sustainable endogenous growth mechanisms. This helps reduce the impact of market volatility and risk shocks on stable household income and prevents a return to poverty (). In the field of specialty industry development, case and empirical studies show that the formation of specialty agricultural patterns is usually not a simple expansion of one production stage. Rather, it involves value chain organisation and capability allocation around distinctive product categories, including processing extension, brand cultivation, channel expansion, and service support, thereby strengthening value-added and benefit-sharing mechanisms ().

This means that value chain upgrading, as a process-oriented outcome variable, better captures the real progress of high-quality industrial development in poverty-alleviated areas. This also suggests that measuring industrial performance only by output growth or a single industry indicator may be limited. From the general logic of industrial chain modernisation, value chain upgrading usually follows a gradual evolutionary path. It depends on the coupled advancement of innovation and industrial chains and requires technological innovation, organizational coordination, and institutional supply to jointly enhance chain capabilities (). Accordingly, explaining specialty agricultural value chain upgrading in poverty-alleviated counties from the perspective of AQPF has clear practical relevance and theoretical grounding.

2.5 OVOP and value chain upgrading

In value chain governance, policy platforms and quality signals are two widely discussed institutional conditions. First, the OVOP demonstration program provides a form of public good and an organizational platform. It may promote specialty industry development through standard systems, brand building, factor agglomeration, and market connections. Existing studies examine its spatial distribution and driving mechanisms, supporting its use as a policy-environment variable in empirical analysis (; ).

Second, geographical indications (GIs) are regarded as institutional tools that combine quality signalling and territorial embeddedness. They can affect rural development through brand premiums, reputation, and industrial organisation. Evidence from poverty-alleviated counties indicates a significant positive relationship between GI certification and farmers’ income, with possible channels including the entry of processing firms and industrial agglomeration in the region. Digital conditions, such as rural e-commerce and digitally inclusive finance, can further strengthen the income effect (). International evidence also shows that GIs are significantly associated with rural development performance at the regional level (), although their returns are conditional and depend on the degree of territorial embeddedness (). In the digital context, the marketing and consumer interaction mechanisms of GI products are being reshaped (), and online transactions show that external cues such as GIs influence consumer judgment and affect sales and price premiums ().

When specialty industries move beyond primary production and extend into processing, logistics, marketing, and service support, household income structures and consumption capacity are more likely to improve in a stable manner. Related channels often include stronger specialisation and agglomeration, the entry of industrial and commercial capital, easier financing constraints, and more non-agricultural employment opportunities.

Based on this literature, several gaps remain. First, research on AQPF has developed a relatively mature conceptual and measurement framework and has accumulated macro-level evidence on rural industrial revitalisation, agricultural modernisation, and industrial-structure upgrading. However, direct measurement and testing of specialty agricultural value chain upgrading as a process-oriented outcome in poverty-alleviated counties remain insufficient. Second, studies on GIs and OVOP have revealed mechanisms of value chain upgrading, but most evaluate single institutional arrangements separately. Few studies place AQPF and platform-based policy environments such as OVOP in a unified framework to test whether they are complementary and how such complementarity is formed. Third, although spatial spillovers and staggered policy implementation have received attention in related fields, they remain underexplored in the context of specia