[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-4001":3,"related-4001":95},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":24,"tags":26,"primary_topic":32,"secondary_topics":38,"classification":39,"search_phrases":61,"slug":64,"view_count":22,"doi":65,"paper":66,"created_at":94},4001,"From income diversification to market vulnerability: the risk–reward dynamics in Tanzanian horticultural value chains","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1877088","Introduction Export-oriented horticulture can generate substantial income and create market opportunities for smallholders, yet the governance of exchange may simultaneously create, redistribute or intensify risks. This study examines how governance arrangements shape risk–reward dynamics in orange, avocado and snow peas export value chains in Tanga Region, Tanzania. The cases represent informal, semi-formal and formal coordination, respectively. Methods Drawing from Social Exchange Theory, the study analyses how trust, dependency, power asymmetry and commitment operate through pricing, grading, payment, technical support and market access. Evidence was generated from 20 focus group discussions involving 179 participants, 23 in-depth interviews and nine key informant interviews, and analysed through deductive and inductive qualitative content analysis. Results Findings show that governance does not merely determine access to rewards; it conditions where risks emerge, how they are transmitted, and who ultimately bears them. Informal orange exchange sustained flexible market participation but exposed farmers to opaque pricing, selection and counting practices. Semi-formal avocado arrangements facilitated export access while concentrating grading, information and purchasing power among intermediaries. Formal coordination of snow peas reduced production and market-entry constraints through bundled services, but dependence on a dominant buyer concentrated systemic exposure, magnifying losses following the buyer withdrawal. Discussion Across cases, governance also mediated economic consequences of production and climatic shocks. The study demonstrates that greater coordination does not inherently reduce vulnerability, rather, it reconfigures risk. Effective governance therefore requires transparency, accountability, enforceable safeguards, diversified market access and mechanisms for sharing concentrated risks, while preserving the benefits generated by coordination.","引言 出口导向型园艺产业能够为小农户带来可观收入并创造市场机会，但交换治理同时可能产生、重新分配或加剧风险。本研究考察治理安排如何塑造坦桑尼亚坦噶地区橙子、牛油果和豌豆出口价值链中的风险—收益动态。这些案例分别代表非正式、半正式和正式协调。方法 本研究以社会交换理论为基础，分析信任、依赖、权力不对称和承诺如何通过定价、分级、支付、技术支持和市场准入发挥作用。证据来自20场焦点小组讨论（涉及179名参与者）、23次深度访谈和9次关键知情人访谈，并通过演绎和归纳定性内容分析进行分析。结果 研究结果表明，治理不仅仅决定收益的获取，还决定了风险在何处出现、如何传导以及最终由谁承担。非正式的橙子交换维持了灵活的市场参与，但使农民面临不透明的定价、挑选和计数做法。半正式的牛油果安排促进了出口准入，同时将分级、信息和购买力集中于中间商手中。豌豆的正式协调通过捆绑服务减少了生产和市场进入约束，但对主导买家的依赖集中了系统性风险暴露，放大了买家退出后的损失。讨论 在各案例中，治理还中介了生产和气候冲击的经济后果。本研究表明，更强的协调并不必然降低脆弱性，而是重新配置风险。因此，有效治理需要透明度、问责制、可执行的保障措施、多元化的市场准入以及分担集中风险的机制，同时保留协调所带来的收益。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,77,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":23},16,22,18,13,8,1,"基于三国别园艺出口链的实证研究，揭示治理结构如何重新配置风险，对订单农业与小农户利益联结机制有参考价值。",[25],{"name":10,"url":6},[27,28,29,30,31],"小农户","订单农业","园艺价值链","市场风险","坦桑尼亚",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},"G2","farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services","G",[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":43},"classified","2026-10-22.2","rules",{"candidates":44,"agricultural_evidence":47},[45,51,56],{"code":33,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":48,"abstract":49,"tags":50},4,true,[],[27],[27],{"code":52,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":53,"abstract":54,"tags":55},"E5",[],[],[28],{"code":57,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":58,"abstract":59,"tags":60},"G4",[],[],[28],[62,63],"坦桑尼亚 园艺价值链","小农户 市场风险","坦桑尼亚园艺价值链-4001","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1877088",{"doi":65,"openalex_id":67,"authors":68,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":6,"card":87,"direction":91,"ingested_from":93},"W7215120523",[69,72,75,77,80,83],{"name":70,"orcid":71},"Eziacka Mathew Mpelangwa","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-0497-7532",{"name":73,"orcid":74},"Betty Mamuya Waized","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6655-436X",{"name":76,"orcid":9},"Ruth Smith",{"name":78,"orcid":79},"Jonas Cromwell","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-0122-2484",{"name":81,"orcid":82},"Susannah M. Sallu","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-1471-2485",{"name":84,"orcid":85},"Stephen Whitfield","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-3040-778X",0,{"tldr":88,"method":89,"finding":90,"direction":91,"opportunity":92},"研究坦桑尼亚园艺出口链治理如何塑造小农户的风险与收益分配。","社会交换理论，20组焦点小组、23次深度访谈及9次关键知情人访谈的定性内容分析。","治理不减少脆弱性而是重新配置风险，更紧密协调反而集中系统性风险。","数字乡村与农业信息化","可探索数字平台与合约设计如何提升价格透明度和风险分担，降低对小农户的隐性剥夺。","openalex","2026-10-02T23:30:10.379147Z",{"total":96,"page":22,"page_size":96,"items":97},6,[98,165,218,313,358,456],{"id":99,"title":100,"url":101,"summary":102,"summary_zh":103,"content":9,"source_name":104,"source_url":101,"published_at":105,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":106,"score_detail":107,"sources":111,"tags":113,"primary_topic":118,"secondary_topics":119,"classification":126,"search_phrases":144,"slug":147,"view_count":86,"doi":148,"paper":149,"created_at":164},5592,"Evaluation of Concept-Rank Collapse Audits for Computer Vision Agriculture Disease Classifiers Under Low-Label Regimes: An Interpretability Capacity Bound for Smallholder Fungicide Selectivity","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545193","Concept-based interpretability methods for plant-disease classifiers are typically evaluated by whether their concept activations correlate with human-annotated labels, but this criterion is silent on a prior question: whether the classifier's internal representation retains enough concept-rank structure for any audit to be informative. the present analysis formalises that prior question as an interpretability capacity bound. A classifier is modelled as a concept-rank operator whose singular values govern how much concept-level signal survives the projection from pixel space to class logits, and a collapse audit is defined as the ratio of retained concept-rank energy to total concept energy. Under a low-label regime, where concept annotations are scarce and the audit must be estimated from few labelled examples, the bound predicts that audit reliability degrades as a function of the concept-rank spectrum and the label budget. The analysis is a theoretical and methodological contribution: it derives the bound, states the conditions under which a collapse audit is identifiable, and characterises the operating characteristics of the audit as a decision procedure under a declared variance structure (between-cluster SD = 6.0, residual SD = 4.5, intraclass correlation = 0.64). Power was estimated across 2000 design cells for cluster counts of 8, 16, 24 and 32 and effect sizes of 3, 5 and 8 percentage points; 52 clusters were required for 5 percentage points at 80% power. The bound reframes concept audits as capacity tests rather than fidelity tests, with consequences for how smallholder fungicide-selectivity decisions should be supported by interpretable disease classifiers.","面向植物病害分类器的基于概念的可解释性方法，通常以其概念激活是否与人工标注标签相关作为评价标准，但该标准对一个更先前的问题保持沉默：分类器的内部表征是否保留了足够的概念秩结构，从而使任何审计具有信息量。本分析将该先前问题形式化为一个可解释性容量上界。分类器被建模为概念秩算子，其奇异值支配着从像素空间到类别logits的投影中概念级信号得以保留的程度，并将坍缩审计定义为保留的概念秩能量与总概念能量之比。在低标签情形下，概念标注稀缺且审计必须由少量标注样本估计，该上界预测审计可靠性会随概念秩谱和标签预算的函数而退化。本分析是一项理论和方法论贡献：推导出该上界，陈述坍缩审计可识别的条件，并在声明的方差结构（簇间SD = 6.0，残差SD = 4.5，组内相关系数 = 0.64）下刻画审计作为决策程序的操作特征。在2000个设计单元中，针对簇数为8、16、24和32以及效应量为3、5和8个百分点的情形估计了功效；在80%功效下达到5个百分点需要52个簇。该上界将概念审计重新框定为容量检验而非保真度检验，并对可解释病害分类器应如何支持小农杀菌剂选择性决策具有启示意义。","Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","2026-10-21T00:00:00Z",69,{"impact":21,"substance":108,"depth":19,"authority":109,"freshness":13,"relevant":22,"comment":110},21,12,"理论方法论文，提出可解释性容量上界并给出审计功效分析，对智慧农业病害识别可信度有参考价值，但属小众方法学研究、缺乏田间实证，暂不宜进入每日精选。",[112],{"name":104,"url":101},[114,115,27,116,117],"智慧农业","农业人工智能","植物病害识别","可解释性",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[120],{"code":121,"slug":122,"name":123,"path":124,"parent_code":125},"I2","agricultural-ai","农业AI与大模型","\u002Ftopic\u002Fdigital-agriculture\u002Fagricultural-ai","I",{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":127},{"candidates":128,"agricultural_evidence":47},[129,134,139],{"code":33,"score":109,"supported":47,"title":130,"abstract":132,"tags":133},[131],"smallholder",[131],[27],{"code":121,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":135,"abstract":137,"tags":138},[136],"computer vision",[],[115,116],{"code":140,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":141,"abstract":142,"tags":143},"I1",[],[],[114],[145,146],"农业人工智能 植物病害识别 可解释性 智慧农业","农业人工智能 植物病害识别","农业人工智能植物病害识别可解释性智慧农业-5592","10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545193",{"doi":148,"openalex_id":150,"authors":151,"venue":104,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":101,"card":158,"direction":162,"ingested_from":93},"W7223137323",[152,154,156],{"name":153,"orcid":9},"Akshay Ramgoolam",{"name":155,"orcid":9},"Priya Bundhoo Appadoo",{"name":157,"orcid":9},"Jean-Noël LEspérance",{"tldr":159,"method":160,"finding":161,"direction":162,"opportunity":163},"提出可解释性容量上界，评估低标签下概念秩崩溃审计的可靠性。","将分类器建模为概念秩算子，推导容量上界并做2000格功效模拟。","审计可靠性随概念秩谱与标签预算下降；5个百分点效应需52个聚类达80%功效。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可将容量上界用于小农户杀菌剂选择性决策的可解释模型审计与标签预算设计。","2026-10-22T11:21:10.425290Z",{"id":166,"title":167,"url":168,"summary":169,"summary_zh":170,"content":9,"source_name":104,"source_url":168,"published_at":105,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":171,"score_detail":172,"sources":174,"tags":176,"primary_topic":179,"secondary_topics":180,"classification":182,"search_phrases":198,"slug":201,"view_count":86,"doi":202,"paper":203,"created_at":217},5590,"Evaluation of Concept-Probe Temporal-Stability Audits for Computer Vision Agriculture Disease Classifiers Under Seasonal Phenology Drift: An Interpretability Decay Bound for Smallholder Fungicide Timing","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545234","Concept-probe audits are increasingly used to certify that a crop-disease classifier's internal representations track the pathological concepts a smallholder would act on, but a probe certified at one point in the season may silently decouple from those concepts as phenology shifts the visual statistics of the field. the present analysis treats that decoupling as a formal object. It defines a temporal-stability audit as a sequence of concept-probe accuracies measured across defined phenological windows, and it derives an interpretability decay bound: the rate at which probe accuracy can fall before the fungicide-timing decision it is meant to support becomes unreliable. The bound is expressed as a function of the probe's initial margin, the drift in concept prevalence between windows, and the classifier's sensitivity to the drifted features, and it yields a certified audit interval rather than a single-point certificate. The paper then characterises the operating characteristics of the audit design under a declared variance structure, using a replication-based evaluation of the before-after-control-impact estimator with between-cluster SD = 6.0, residual SD = 4.5 and intraclass correlation = 0.64. Power was estimated across 2000 design cells over cluster counts of 8, 16, 24 and 32 and effect sizes of 3, 5 and 8 percentage points; 54 clusters were required for 5 percentage points at 80% power. The contribution is a decision-theoretic account of when a concept-probe certificate expires, and a design rule for scheduling re-audits across the season.","概念探针审计（concept-probe audit）日益被用于验证作物病害分类器的内部表征是否追踪小农户会据以采取行动的病理学概念，但在生长季某一时点获得认证的探针，可能随着物候变化改变田间的视觉统计特征而悄然与这些概念脱钩。本分析将这种脱钩视为一个形式化对象。它将时间稳定性审计（temporal-stability audit）定义为在既定物候窗口内测量的一系列概念探针准确率，并推导出一个可解释性衰减界限（interpretability decay bound）：即探针准确率在其所支持的杀菌剂施用时机决策变得不可靠之前所能下降的速率。该界限表示为探针初始裕度、窗口间概念流行率漂移以及分类器对漂移特征敏感度的函数，并给出一个经认证的审计区间而非单点认证。随后，本文在声明的方差结构下刻画该审计设计的运行特征，采用基于重复的前后对照影响估计量评估，其中组间标准差 = 6.0、残差标准差 = 4.5、组内相关系数 = 0.64。功效在 2000 个设计单元上估计，聚类数取 8、16、24 和 32，效应量取 3、5 和 8 个百分点；在 80% 功效下达到 5 个百分点需要 54 个聚类。本文的贡献在于从决策论角度阐明概念探针认证何时失效，并给出在整个生长季内安排重新审计的设计规则。",70,{"impact":21,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":109,"freshness":13,"relevant":22,"comment":173},"该论文提出概念探针审计的时序稳定性框架与可解释性衰减界，方法新颖、统计设计扎实，但属小众方法论研究，产业影响有限，适合作为专业精选而非头条。",[175],{"name":104,"url":168},[114,115,27,177,178],"作物病害识别","模型审计",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[181],{"code":121,"slug":122,"name":123,"path":124,"parent_code":125},{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":183},{"candidates":184,"agricultural_evidence":47},[185,190,194],{"code":33,"score":186,"supported":47,"title":187,"abstract":188,"tags":189},15,[131],[27,131],[27],{"code":121,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":191,"abstract":192,"tags":193},[136],[],[177,115],{"code":140,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":195,"abstract":196,"tags":197},[],[],[114],[199,200],"概念探针 时序稳定性 作物病害分类器","杀菌剂 施药时机 可解释性衰减","概念探针时序稳定性作物病害分类器-5590","10.5281\u002Fzenodo.23545234",{"doi":202,"openalex_id":204,"authors":205,"venue":104,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":168,"card":212,"direction":162,"ingested_from":93},"W7223088030",[206,208,210],{"name":207,"orcid":9},"Abdi-Basid Idriss Farah",{"name":209,"orcid":9},"Amina Abdillahi Guedi",{"name":211,"orcid":9},"Moussa Omar Youssouf",{"tldr":213,"method":214,"finding":215,"direction":162,"opportunity":216},"提出概念探针时间稳定性审计与可解释性衰减界，判断何时需重新审计。","定义跨物候窗口探针精度序列，推导衰减界，用BACI复制评估统计功效。","5个百分点效应需54个聚类达80%功效，审计证书会随物候漂移过期。","可将衰减界与再审计调度规则嵌入小农户杀菌剂时机决策支持系统，并验证跨作物泛化。","2026-10-22T11:21:08.978348Z",{"id":219,"title":220,"url":221,"summary":222,"summary_zh":223,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":221,"published_at":105,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":224,"score_detail":225,"sources":230,"tags":232,"primary_topic":237,"secondary_topics":238,"classification":239,"search_phrases":278,"slug":281,"view_count":86,"doi":282,"paper":283,"created_at":312},5548,"Agroecological transition in olive based farming systems among smallholder farms in northwestern Tunisia","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1903591","Agricultural intensification has increased production and economic growth but has also generated significant environmental and social challenges that threaten long-term sustainability, highlighting the need for more sustainable farming models. Agroecology offers a promising pathway to enhance resilience and support inclusive rural development. In this context, Tunisia’s olive sector provides a relevant case for examining agroecological transitions in semi-arid smallholder systems. This study evaluates the degree of agroecological transition among smallholder olive farms in the Elles region of northwestern Tunisia using the FAO Tool for Agroecology Performance Evaluation (TAPE). Based on a sample of 60 farms, the analysis applies the Characterization of Agroecological Transition (CAET) index, grounded in the 10 Elements of Agroecology, to compare four production systems: (i) olive monoculture, (ii) diversified cropping, (iii) olive–livestock integration, and (iv) integrated olive–crop–livestock systems. Economic, social, environmental and institutional performance were explored using the TAPE Core Criteria of Performance (Step 2) and examined in relation to CAET scores. Results reveal a clear agroecological gradient, with diversified and integrated systems achieving markedly higher CAET scores (up to 52%) compared to monoculture systems (31%). Spearman correlations show strong associations between CAET and key dimensions, including synergy (ρ = 0.79), human and social values (ρ = 0.78), and diversity (ρ = 0.71). Several TAPE economic performance indicators, including monthly income, which ranged from approximately 1,349 TND in monoculture systems to 4,892 TND in diversified olive–crop–livestock systems, were positively associated with higher CAET scores, suggesting that agroecological transition may not necessarily imply a trade-off between productivity and sustainability. However, limited collective action, weak market integration, and insufficient extension services constrain broader adoption. These findings highlight the potential of diversification as a key lever for agroecological transition and underscore the importance of targeted policy support.","农业集约化提高了产量并促进了经济增长，但也产生了威胁长期可持续性的重大环境与社会挑战，凸显了对更可持续耕作模式的需求。农业生态学为增强韧性和支持包容性农村发展提供了一条有前景的路径。在此背景下，突尼斯橄榄产业为研究半干旱小农系统中的农业生态转型提供了相关案例。本研究利用联合国粮农组织农业生态性能评价工具（TAPE），评估突尼斯西北部埃勒斯地区小农橄榄农场的农业生态转型程度。基于60个农场的样本，分析采用以农业生态学十大要素为基础的农业生态转型特征（CAET）指数，比较四种生产系统：（i）橄榄单作，（ii）多样化种植，（iii）橄榄—畜牧结合，以及（iv）橄榄—作物—畜牧综合系统。研究利用TAPE核心性能标准（第二步）探讨经济、社会、环境和制度绩效，并将其与CAET得分进行关联分析。结果揭示了明显的农业生态梯度，多样化与综合系统的CAET得分（最高达52%）显著高于单作系统（31%）。斯皮尔曼相关性分析显示，CAET与关键维度之间存在强关联，包括协同性（ρ = 0.79）、人文与社会价值（ρ = 0.78）和多样性（ρ = 0.71）。若干TAPE经济绩效指标——包括月收入，其从单作系统的约1，349突尼斯第纳尔到橄榄—作物—畜牧多样化系统的4，892突尼斯第纳尔不等——与更高的CAET得分呈正相关，表明农业生态转型未必意味着生产力与可持续性之间的权衡。然而，集体行动有限、市场整合薄弱和推广服务不足制约了更广泛的采纳。这些发现凸显了多样化作为农业生态转型关键杠杆的潜力，并强调了有针对性的政策支持的重要性。",71,{"impact":109,"substance":226,"depth":227,"authority":20,"freshness":228,"relevant":22,"comment":229},20,17,9,"基于FAO TAPE方法对突尼斯小农户橄榄系统农生态转型的实证研究，数据扎实、结论有新意，但属区域性案例，公共影响有限。",[231],{"name":10,"url":221},[27,233,234,235,236],"农业转型","生态农业","突尼斯","油橄榄",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":240},{"candidates":241,"agricultural_evidence":47},[242,246,253,259,266,273],{"code":33,"score":109,"supported":47,"title":243,"abstract":244,"tags":245},[131],[131],[27],{"code":247,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":248,"abstract":249,"tags":252},"C",[],[250,251],"畜牧","livestock",[],{"code":37,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":254,"abstract":255,"tags":258},[],[256,257],"农村发展","rural development",[],{"code":260,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":261,"abstract":262,"tags":265},"H6",[],[263,264],"农业生态","agroecology",[],{"code":267,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":269,"abstract":270,"tags":272},"H7",3,[],[271],"干旱",[],{"code":274,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":275,"abstract":276,"tags":277},"H8",[],[],[234],[279,280],"突尼斯 油橄榄 小农户","TAPE 农生态 评估","突尼斯油橄榄小农户-5548","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1903591",{"doi":282,"openalex_id":284,"authors":285,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":221,"card":306,"direction":310,"ingested_from":93},"W7223108121",[286,288,290,293,296,298,301,304],{"name":287,"orcid":9},"Rihab Mejri",{"name":289,"orcid":9},"Meriem Oueslati Zlaoui",{"name":291,"orcid":292},"Inès Gharbi","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-2558-2134",{"name":294,"orcid":295},"Asma Souissi","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-8680-5875",{"name":297,"orcid":9},"Ghada Ferchichi",{"name":299,"orcid":300},"Rania Soula","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6086-9176",{"name":302,"orcid":303},"Boubaker Dhehibi","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-3854-6669",{"name":305,"orcid":9},"Mohamed Zied Dhraief",{"tldr":307,"method":308,"finding":309,"direction":310,"opportunity":311},"用FAO TAPE工具评估突尼斯西北小农橄榄农场生态农业转型程度。","FAO TAPE框架与CAET指数，调查60个农场比较四类种植系统。","多样化与综合系统CAET得分达52%，单作仅31%，且收入更高。","农业绿色发展与碳","可将TAPE与CAET指标数字化，构建小农生态转型监测与决策支持系统。","2026-10-22T11:20:15.716064Z",{"id":314,"title":315,"url":316,"summary":317,"summary_zh":9,"content":318,"source_name":319,"source_url":9,"published_at":105,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":320,"score_detail":321,"sources":323,"tags":325,"primary_topic":330,"secondary_topics":331,"classification":332,"search_phrases":344,"slug":347,"view_count":348,"doi":9,"paper":349,"created_at":357},5537,"农业产业园促进小农户融入数字化供应链：协同机制与制度逻辑","https:\u002F\u002Fkyy.nwafu.edu.cn\u002Fkjjz\u002Fxdkjjz\u002F557ffd662c8e4af98e46fbf90f35d91f.htm","西北农林科技大学阮俊虎教授团队联合德国哥廷根大学于晓华教授，以大荔县国家现代农业产业园等为典型案例，从交易成本理论出发围绕技术赋能、组织整合、规则治理与价值分配四个机制开展案例内分析与跨案例比较，揭示农业产业园作为中国特色制度平台促进小农户融入数字化供应链的深层逻辑。","近日，经济管理学院“数智农业运营管理团队”阮俊虎教授联合德国哥廷根大学于晓华教授在《中国农村经济》发表题为“农业产业园促进小农户融入数字化供应链：协同机制与制度逻辑”的研究论文，通过多案例研究揭示农业产业园促进小农户融入数字化供应链的协同机制，并阐释机制形成与运行的制度逻辑。博士研究生刘晨欢为第一作者，阮俊虎教授为通讯作者，王月博士和于晓华教授为合作学者。\n\n数字技术正深刻重构农产品供应链格局，大型电商平台等供应链核心主体加速构建覆盖生产源头至消费终端的数字化供应链体系，该体系不仅体现为数字技术在生产、销售、物流等环节的应用，更强调不同环节与经营主体之间的系统协同与数据贯通，小农户亟须有效融入数字化供应链以应对市场竞争格局的深刻变化。然而，“大国小农”国情农情下，小农户经营规模较小、土地细碎化程度较高，难以独立对接数字化、规模化的现代供应链体系。促进小农户深度融入数字化供应链，进而实现小农户和现代农业发展有机衔接，成为农业现代化进程中值得关注的重要议题。农业产业园作为区域农业发展的综合性制度平台，兼具资源集聚、组织协同与制度保障三重优势，能够为地方政府及园区经营管理主体协同整合制度资源并协调多元主体关系提供平台支撑，但将资源集聚、组织协同和制度供给优势转化为小农户融入数字化供应链的现实能力，其内在机理尚未得到系统性揭示。\n\n本文立足“农业产业园促进小农户融入数字化供应链的内在机理”这一科学问题，从交易成本理论出发，以大荔县国家现代农业产业园等为典型案例，围绕技术赋能、组织整合、规则治理和价值分配四个机制开展案例内分析与跨案例比较分析，揭示不同园区作用机制的共性、差异及情境适配特征，并从制度层面阐释农业产业园作为中国特色制度平台，促进小农户融入数字化供应链的深层逻辑。研究旨在为农业经营呈现小规模、分散化特征的国家和地区促进小农户和现代农业发展有机衔接提供理论参考与实践借鉴。\n\n该研究得到国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国农产品供应链数字化转型的发展战略与实施路径研究”（23&ZD123）的资助。\n\n论文链接：\n\n[https:\u002F\u002Fzgncjj.ajcass.com\u002F?jumpnotice=201606270007#\u002FissueDetail?contentId=123722&year=2026&issue=10&title=%E5%BD%93%E6%9C%9F%E7%9B%AE%E5%BD%95](https:\u002F\u002Fzgncjj.ajcass.com\u002F?jumpnotice=201606270007#\u002FissueDetail?contentId=123722&year=2026&issue=10&title=%E5%BD%93%E6%9C%9F%E7%9B%AE%E5%BD%95)\n\n编辑：张晴 终审：刘玉峰","中国农村经济 2026-10-21",82,{"impact":19,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":186,"freshness":228,"relevant":22,"comment":322},"核心期刊论文，多案例揭示农业产业园促进小农户融入数字化供应链的协同机制与制度逻辑，理论新意足、政策参考价值高，值得进入每日精选。",[324],{"name":319,"url":316},[326,27,327,328,329],"数字乡村","制度逻辑","数字化供应链","农业产业园",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":333},{"candidates":334,"agricultural_evidence":47},[335,339],{"code":33,"score":109,"supported":47,"title":336,"abstract":337,"tags":338},[27],[27],[27],{"code":340,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":341,"abstract":342,"tags":343},"I6",[],[],[326],[345,346],"农业产业园 小农户 数字化供应链","大荔县 国家现代农业产业园","农业产业园小农户数字化供应链-5537",7,{"doi":9,"openalex_id":9,"authors":350,"venue":9,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":9,"card":351,"direction":91,"ingested_from":356},[],{"tldr":352,"method":353,"finding":354,"direction":91,"opportunity":355},"以农业产业园为案例，揭示其促进小农户融入数字化供应链的机制与制度逻辑。","交易成本理论，大荔县等典型案例的案例内分析与跨案例比较。","技术赋能、组织整合、规则治理与价值分配四机制共同推动小农户融入数字化供应链。","可量化检验四机制对农户融入绩效的影响，并比较不同产业园模式的适用边界。","agent","2026-10-22T00:07:10.192700Z",{"id":359,"title":360,"url":361,"summary":362,"summary_zh":363,"content":9,"source_name":364,"source_url":361,"published_at":365,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":366,"score_detail":367,"sources":369,"tags":371,"primary_topic":376,"secondary_topics":382,"classification":389,"search_phrases":433,"slug":436,"view_count":86,"doi":437,"paper":438,"created_at":455},5478,"Characterisation of Food Security Situation for Smallholder Farmers in Zvimba","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30","This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the food security situation among smallholder farmers (SHFs) in Zvimba District, Zimbabwe. Smallholder agriculture is the bedrock of Zimbabwe's food system, yet it remains highly vulnerable to a complex array of shocks and stressors. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research investigates the prevalence, drivers and lived experiences of food insecurity within this community. A structured survey was administered to 412 randomly selected smallholder households across the district's wards. The quantitative data were supplemented by 12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 24 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with farmers, community leaders and agricultural extension officers to capture qualitative nuances. The study is grounded in the Food Security Theory (FST), which conceptualises food security through its four pillars: food availability, food access, food utilisation and food stability. Findings reveal a precarious food security situation. Quantitatively, 78.4% of households were found to be food insecure, with an average Hunger Months Index of 4.7 months per year. The study identifies a significant disconnect between maize production, the national staple and household consumption, with over 65% of households failing to produce enough maize to meet their annual requirements. Qualitative data illuminated the multi-faceted drivers of this insecurity. Key points to note include climate change whereby erratic rainfall and prolonged mid-season dry spells were consistently reported as the primary production challenges, limited access to farming inputs whereby high costs and unreliable supplies of certified seeds, fertilizers and agro[1]chemicals constrain productivity. Morelso, socio-economic factors such as poverty, lack of viable alternative livelihoods and limited access to formal credit perpetuate a cycle of vulnerability. In addition, institutional weaknesses, for example, challenges with agricultural extension services and market inefficiencies, exacerbate the situation. The study concludes that food insecurity in Zvimba is not merely a problem of food production, but is deeply rooted in structural issues affecting food access, food utilisation, as well as food stability. Recommendations are proposed for a multi-sectoral approach, including promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) and drought-resistant crops, strengthening input support systems and rural finance, diversifying livelihood strategies and enhancing the capacity of extension services. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the localised dynamics of food security and provides evidence-based guidance for policymakers, development practitioners and the farmers of Zvimba themselves.","本研究对津巴布韦兹维姆巴区小农户（smallholder farmers, SHFs）的粮食安全状况进行了全面分析。小农农业是津巴布韦粮食体系的基石，但仍极易受到一系列复杂冲击和压力的影响。本研究采用混合方法，考察了该社区粮食不安全的普遍程度、驱动因素及生活体验。研究对该区各选区随机抽取的412户小农户进行了结构化问卷调查。定量数据辅以12次焦点小组讨论（FGDs）和24次关键知情人访谈（KIIs），访谈对象包括农民、社区领袖和农业推广人员，以捕捉定性层面的细微差异。本研究以粮食安全理论（Food Security Theory, FST）为基础，该理论通过四大支柱界定粮食安全：粮食可供性、粮食获取、粮食利用和粮食稳定性。研究结果揭示了严峻的粮食安全形势。定量数据显示，78.4%的家庭存在粮食不安全，年均饥饿月份指数为4.7个月。研究发现，玉米产量——该国主粮——与家庭消费之间存在显著脱节，超过65%的家庭生产的玉米不足以满足其年度需求。定性数据揭示了这一不安全状况的多重驱动因素。值得注意的要点包括：气候变化，即降雨不稳定和持续的中期干旱被一致报告为主要生产挑战；农业投入品获取受限，即认证种子、化肥和农用化学品成本高昂且供应不可靠，制约了生产力。此外，贫困、缺乏可行的替代生计以及正规信贷获取受限等社会经济因素使脆弱性循环持续存在。此外，制度薄弱环节，例如农业推广服务面临的挑战和市场效率低下，加剧了这一状况。研究得出结论，兹维姆巴的粮食不安全不仅仅是粮食生产问题，而是深深植根于影响粮食获取、粮食利用以及粮食稳定性的结构性问题。研究提出了采取多部门方法的建议，包括推广气候智能型农业（Climate-Smart Agriculture, CSA）和抗旱作物、加强投入品支持体系和农村金融、多样化生计策略以及增强","Ngenani The Zimbabwe Ezekiel Guti Journal of Community Engagement and Societal Transformations","2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",55,{"impact":21,"substance":19,"depth":186,"authority":96,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":368},"基于412户调查与混合方法的扎实实证研究，但属津巴布韦地方性案例，公共影响与信源权威度有限，可作参考而非每日精选。",[370],{"name":364,"url":361},[372,27,373,374,375],"粮食安全","气候智慧农业","农业推广","津巴布韦",{"code":377,"slug":378,"name":379,"path":380,"parent_code":381},"A8","yield-food-security","单产提升与粮食安全","\u002Ftopic\u002Ffield-crops\u002Fyield-food-security","A",[383,384],{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},{"code":267,"slug":385,"name":386,"path":387,"parent_code":388},"climate","气候适应与防灾减灾","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Fclimate","H",{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":390},{"candidates":391,"agricultural_evidence":47},[392,397,401,408,414,421,428],{"code":377,"score":186,"supported":47,"title":393,"abstract":395,"tags":396},[394],"food security",[372,394],[372],{"code":33,"score":186,"supported":47,"title":398,"abstract":399,"tags":400},[131],[27,131],[27],{"code":267,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":402,"abstract":403,"tags":407},[],[404,271,405,406],"气候变化","climate change","drought",[373],{"code":409,"score":348,"supported":47,"title":410,"abstract":411,"tags":413},"G1",[],[374,412],"agricultural extension",[374],{"code":415,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":416,"abstract":417,"tags":420},"A3",[],[418,419],"玉米","maize",[],{"code":422,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":423,"abstract":424,"tags":427},"G3",[],[425,426],"农村金融","rural finance",[],{"code":140,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":429,"abstract":430,"tags":432},[],[431],"smart agriculture",[],[434,435],"Zvimba 小农户 粮食安全","津巴布韦 小农 玉米","Zvimba小农户粮食安全-5478","10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30",{"doi":437,"openalex_id":439,"authors":440,"venue":364,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":9,"card":449,"direction":454,"ingested_from":93},"W7223029383",[441,444,447],{"name":442,"orcid":443},"Casper Myambo","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0007-8625-7526",{"name":445,"orcid":446},"Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-4123-0238",{"name":448,"orcid":9},"Patience Mutopo",{"tldr":450,"method":451,"finding":452,"direction":91,"opportunity":453},"调查津巴布韦Zvimba小农户粮食安全状况，分析其普遍性、成因与实际体验。","混合方法：412户问卷、12场焦点小组、24个关键人物访谈，基于粮食安全四支柱理","78.4%家庭粮食不安全，年均饥饿月4.7个月，主因是气候、投入、社会经济与制度等结构性问题。","可探索用移动端问卷与遥感产量监测构建小农户粮食安全动态预警与精准干预系统。","智慧农业 \u002F 农业物联网","2026-10-21T23:30:08.937079Z",{"id":457,"title":458,"url":459,"summary":460,"summary_zh":461,"content":9,"source_name":462,"source_url":459,"published_at":463,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":464,"score_detail":465,"sources":467,"tags":469,"primary_topic":472,"secondary_topics":473,"classification":476,"search_phrases":542,"slug":545,"view_count":86,"doi":546,"paper":547,"created_at":559},5185,"When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182","When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya For generations, farmers in Western Kenya have watched the skies carefully. The arrival, duration, and distribution of rainfall have traditionally provided important signals about when to prepare land, plant, weed, and harvest. But these signals are becoming increasingly difficult to read. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, while increasingly frequent extreme weather events are making farming more uncertain. The current outlook for the October–December 2026 season brings this challenge sharply into focus. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a wetter-than-normal season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The Lake Victoria Basin, which includes large parts of Western Kenya, is among the areas with a high likelihood of receiving more than 400 mm of seasonal rainfall. ICPAC reports that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected—climate conditions that are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in the region, and is likely to run into February of 2027. But what does this mean for the smallholder farmer? The first point is that more rainfall does not necessarily mean more food. For a farmer whose livelihood depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, abundant rainfall can be a blessing. It can replenish streams and water sources, improve soil moisture, restore pasture and create favourable conditions for crop production. If well distributed, the rains could contribute to improved harvests and household food supplies. The problem arises when rainfall is too intense, too concentrated or poorly distributed. A farmer may receive a great deal of rain in a few days and then experience a dry spell. Another farmer a few kilometres away may receive considerably less. Heavy downpours can cause flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion. Seeds may be washed away soon after planting. Young crops can be submerged or damaged. Valuable topsoil and nutrients can be carried away, reducing the productivity of land in subsequent seasons. This is particularly important in Western Kenya, where many households depend on small parcels of land for both food and income. A failed or damaged crop is not simply an agricultural loss. It can mean less food in the household, less money for school fees and health care, and fewer resources to purchase nutritious foods. The food-security paradox We must, therefore, look beyond agricultural production to food and nutrition security. A household may produce enough maize yet still have a poor diet if vegetables, legumes, fruits, milk, eggs or other foods are unavailable or unaffordable. Climate shocks can reduce this diversity. When crops are damaged, families may depend more heavily on whatever staple food remains available. This is why climate resilience must also be nutrition-sensitive. Western Kenya has a rich agricultural tradition and considerable potential for diversified food production. Farmers grow cereals, legumes, vegetables and root crops and keep livestock and poultry. Such diversity is not merely an agricultural advantage; it is a nutritional resource. It can provide different foods, spread risk and generate income at different times of the year. Climate adaptation should, therefore, not encourage farmers simply to produce more of one crop. It should help them build diverse and resilient farming systems. Women carry a large part of the burden The impact of erratic and excessive rainfall also has a gender dimension. Women in smallholder households are often deeply involved in food production, processing, preparation and household nutrition. When harvests fail, or food prices rise, women frequently have to find ways of stretching limited household resources to feed the family. When roads become impassable or markets are disrupted, women may have greater difficulty accessing food and agricultural inputs. When water sources are contaminated or damaged, household responsibilities can become even more demanding. Climate adaptation must therefore deliberately include women—not simply as beneficiaries, but as decision-makers, innovators, farmers and leaders. Young people must also be part of the solution There is another group that deserves greater attention: young people. Western Kenya cannot build climate-resilient agriculture while treating agriculture as an occupation of the past. Young people need to see opportunities in modern farming, agro-processing, food safety, climate information services, irrigation, digital agriculture and agricultural entrepreneurship. The increasing unpredictability of climate may actually provide an opportunity to make agriculture more innovative. Young people can help introduce new technologies, improve access to climate information, develop value-added products and create businesses around food production and processing. From forecasting to action The availability of a climate forecast is useful only if it reaches the people who need it in time. Farmers need information that answers practical questions: When should I plant? Which crops or varieties are appropriate? How can I protect my soil? What should I do if rainfall becomes excessive? How can I protect harvested food? Where can I obtain reliable seed and other inputs? Seasonal forecasts should, therefore, be translated into local, practical agricultural advice. ICPAC itself emphasizes that seasonal forecasts should be used together with weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological information. This requires stronger links between meteorological services, agricultural extension officers, researchers, county governments, farmer organizations and communities. We should also strengthen simple but important measures: water harvesting, drainage, terracing and soil conservation; planting crops and varieties suited to local conditions; maintaining vegetation cover; diversifying crops and livestock; improving storage facilities; and protecting food from moisture and contamination. Prepare before the rain comes The greatest lesson from the current El Niño outlook is perhaps that preparedness must begin before the first heavy rains arrive. Governments and development partners should not wait for floods, damaged roads, destroyed crops or food shortages before responding. Early warning should lead to early action. Farmers should be supported to prepare their farms, protect livestock, secure seed and inputs, strengthen food storage and identify alternative routes to markets. This is particularly important because the same season can produce both opportunities and losses. ICPAC notes that enhanced rainfall can support agricultural production and replenish water resources, but can simultaneously increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas. A changing climate requires a different agricultural mindset Perhaps the most important change we need is in the way we think about farming. For too long, agricultural planning has often assumed that rainfall will behave according to a familiar calendar. That assumption is becoming increasingly unsafe. Farmers now have to manage not only too little rain, but also too much rain, rain at the wrong time and rain in the wrong place. The challenge is, therefore, not simply to produce more food. It is to build food systems that can continue providing adequate, diverse, safe and nutritious food under increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Western Kenya's smallholder farmers should not be left alone to carry this burden. They need science that responds to their realities, extension services that reach them, climate information they can understand and use, financial services that help them manage risk, markets that function during difficult seasons, and policies that recognize the central role of smallholder agriculture in national food and nutrition security, and partners who are willing to appreciate and make use of indigenous knowledge. El Niño should, therefore, be viewed neither simply as a disaster nor automatically as a blessing. It is a climate event whose consequences will depend greatly on our preparedness. The question before us is not merely, “Will the rains come?” They probably will. The more important question is: Will our farmers, food systems and institutions be ready when they do? That is where climate resilience—and ultimately food and nutrition security—will be tested. Prof. Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o Founder and Editor-in-Chief, AJFAND ORCiD: https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","当雨水过多时：厄尔尼诺现象、小农户与肯尼亚西部的粮食安全\n\n世代以来，肯尼亚西部的农民一直密切关注着天空。降雨的到来、持续时间和分布，传统上为何时整地、播种、除草和收获提供了重要信号。但这些信号正变得越来越难以解读。气候变化正在改变降雨模式，而日益频繁的极端天气事件使农业变得更加不确定。当前对2026年10月至12月季节的展望使这一挑战凸显出来。政府间发展组织气候预测与应用中心（ICPAC）预测，大非洲之角大部分地区将迎来高于正常水平的湿润季节。维多利亚湖流域——包括肯尼亚西部的大部分地区——属于极有可能获得超过400毫米季节性降雨的区域之一。ICPAC报告称，厄尔尼诺现象已经形成并预计将增强，同时预计还将出现正印度洋偶极子——这些气候条件通常与该地区降雨增强相关，并可能持续到2027年2月。但这对小农户意味着什么？首先，更多降雨并不必然意味着更多粮食。对于生计几乎完全依赖雨养农业的农民来说，充沛的降雨可能是福。它可以补充溪流和水源、改善土壤湿度、恢复牧场，并为作物生产创造有利条件。如果分布良好，降雨可能有助于改善收成和家庭粮食供应。问题出现在降雨过于猛烈、过于集中或分布不均的时候。一个农民可能在几天内获得大量降雨，随后又经历一段干旱期。几公里外的另一个农民可能获得的降雨少得多。暴雨可能引发洪水、渍涝和土壤侵蚀。种子可能在播种后不久被冲走。幼苗可能被淹没或受损。宝贵的表土和养分可能被带走，降低土地在后续季节的生产力。这在肯尼亚西部尤为重要，因为许多家庭依赖小块土地获取食物和收入。作物歉收或受损不仅仅是农业损失。它可能意味着家庭食物减少、用于学费和医疗的钱减少，以及购买营养食品的资源减少。粮食安全……","African Journal of Food Agriculture Nutrition and Development","2026-10-16T00:00:00Z",75,{"impact":19,"substance":226,"depth":17,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":466},"核心期刊评论文章，结合El Niño预测讨论小农户气候适应与粮食营养安全，有实质分析与行动建议，但属区域案例、非信息化技术突破。",[468],{"name":462,"url":459},[470,372,27,373,471],"肯尼亚","气候预警",{"code":377,"slug":378,"name":379,"path":380,"parent_code":381},[474,475],{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},{"code":267,"slug":385,"name":386,"path":387,"parent_code":388},{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":477},{"candidates":478,"agricultural_evidence":47},[479,483,487,493,500,504,510,514,520,526,532,536],{"code":377,"score":186,"supported":47,"title":480,"abstract":481,"tags":482},[394],[372,394],[372],{"code":33,"score":186,"supported":47,"title":484,"abstract":485,"tags":486},[131],[27,131],[27],{"code":267,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":488,"abstract":489,"tags":492},[],[404,271,405,490,491],"climate resilience","waterlogging",[373],{"code":494,"score":96,"supported":47,"title":495,"abstract":496,"tags":499},"H2",[],[497,498],"土壤","soil",[],{"code":415,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":501,"abstract":502,"tags":503},[],[419],[],{"code":505,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":506,"abstract":507,"tags":509},"B4",[],[508],"月季",[],{"code":247,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":511,"abstract":512,"tags":513},[],[251],[],{"code":515,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":516,"abstract":517,"tags":519},"C3",[],[518],"poultry",[],{"code":521,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":522,"abstract":523,"tags":525},"E4",[],[524],"food safety",[],{"code":527,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":528,"abstract":529,"tags":531},"F4",[],[530],"除草",[],{"code":409,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":533,"abstract":534,"tags":535},[],[412],[],{"code":537,"score":268,"supported":47,"title":538,"abstract":539,"tags":541},"H3",[],[540],"irrigation",[],[543,544],"El Niño 小农户 粮食安全","ICPAC 季节预报 肯尼亚","ElNiño小农户粮食安全-5185","10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182",{"doi":546,"openalex_id":548,"authors":549,"venue":462,"cited_by_count":86,"oa_url":553,"card":554,"direction":91,"ingested_from":93},"W7222630373",[550],{"name":551,"orcid":552},"Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","https:\u002F\u002Fajfand.net\u002FVolume26\u002FNo8\u002FEditorialVol26No8.pdf",{"tldr":555,"method":556,"finding":557,"direction":310,"opportunity":558},"分析厄尔尼诺导致肯尼亚西部降雨过量对小农粮食安全的影响","基于ICPAC季节气候预测与厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子分析","降雨过多且分布不均会引发洪涝、土壤侵蚀，反而威胁小农粮食安全","可结合遥感与农户调查，量化极端降雨时空分布对小农产量与粮食安全的非线性影响","2026-10-17T23:30:36.130973Z"]