[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-4486":3,"related-4486":99},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":23,"tags":25,"primary_topic":9,"secondary_topics":31,"classification":32,"search_phrases":74,"slug":77,"view_count":78,"doi":79,"paper":80,"created_at":98},4486,"Climate risk and the production foundations of nutrition security: evidence from grain-supply capacity in Chinese cities","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1960082","Introduction Climate risk poses growing challenges to food availability and the resilience of urban food systems. Methods Using panel data for 298 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model to examine the impact of climate risk on production-side food security, its transmission mechanisms, and regional heterogeneity. Results The results show that climate risk significantly reduces city-level grain output, and this finding remains robust to alternative specifications and endogeneity treatments. Mechanism analyses indicate that climate risk weakens food availability by adversely affecting agricultural mechanization, effective irrigation, grain-sown area, and fiscal support for agriculture. The negative effect is more pronounced in non-major grain-producing areas and regions with lower adaptive capacity. Further analysis suggests that climate risk also undermines agricultural economic performance and food-supply stability. Discussion These findings provide city-level evidence on how climate shocks affect production-side food security and highlight the importance of strengthening agricultural production conditions and adaptive capacity to enhance food-system resilience and safeguard nutrition security.","引言 气候风险对粮食供给和城市食物系统韧性构成的挑战日益严峻。方法 本研究基于2010—2023年中国298个地级市的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型，考察气候风险对生产端粮食安全的影响、其传导机制及区域异质性。结果 结果表明，气候风险显著降低城市层面粮食产量，且该结论在替换设定和内生性处理后依然稳健。机制分析表明，气候风险通过不利影响农业机械化、有效灌溉、粮食播种面积和财政支农力度，削弱粮食供给能力。这种负面效应在非粮食主产区和适应能力较低的地区更为明显。进一步分析表明，气候风险还会损害农业经济绩效和粮食供给稳定性。讨论 上述发现为气候冲击如何影响生产端粮食安全提供了城市层面的证据，并凸显了强化农业生产条件和适应能力对于增强食物系统韧性和保障营养安全的重要性。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-10-08T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,79,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":22},18,22,13,8,1,"基于298个地级市面板数据的实证研究，揭示气候风险通过机械化、灌溉、播种面积和财政支农等渠道削弱城市粮食供给能力，对粮食安全与农业韧性政策有参考价值。",[24],{"name":10,"url":6},[26,27,28,29,30],"粮食安全","农业保险","农业机械化","城市农业","气候风险",[],{"status":33,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":36},"needs_review","2026-10-22.2","rules",{"candidates":37,"agricultural_evidence":41,"reason":73},[38,46,53,61,68],{"code":39,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":42,"abstract":43,"tags":45},"A8",7,true,[],[26,44],"food security",[26],{"code":47,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":48,"abstract":49,"tags":52},"F5",[],[50,51],"农业机械","机械化",[28],{"code":54,"score":55,"supported":41,"title":56,"abstract":57,"tags":60},"H3",6,[],[58,59],"灌溉","irrigation",[],{"code":62,"score":63,"supported":41,"title":64,"abstract":65,"tags":67},"G3",4,[],[66],"财政支农",[27],{"code":69,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":70,"abstract":71,"tags":72},"H7",[],[],[30],"多个产业证据相当，需要确认主归属",[75,76],"气候风险 粮食产量 城市","中国城市 粮食供给能力","气候风险粮食产量城市-4486",5,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1960082",{"doi":79,"openalex_id":81,"authors":82,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":90,"oa_url":6,"card":91,"direction":95,"ingested_from":97},"W7221050206",[83,85,87],{"name":84,"orcid":9},"Yukun Shan",{"name":86,"orcid":9},"Zhigang Zhou",{"name":88,"orcid":89},"Yuhao Wu","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-3899-0949",0,{"tldr":92,"method":93,"finding":94,"direction":95,"opportunity":96},"基于中国298个地级市面板数据，评估气候风险对城市粮食产能的影响及机制。","2010-2023年地级市面板数据，双向固定效应模型与内生性处理。","气候风险显著降低粮食产量，通过削弱机械化、灌溉、播种面积和财政支农传导。","农业绿色发展与碳","可探究气候风险下数字农业技术（如智能灌溉、精准农机）对粮食产能的缓冲效应与适应机制。","openalex","2026-10-09T23:30:06.477704Z",{"total":55,"page":21,"page_size":55,"items":100},[101,162,236,311,353,420],{"id":102,"title":103,"url":104,"summary":105,"summary_zh":9,"content":9,"source_name":106,"source_url":9,"published_at":107,"category":108,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":109,"score_detail":110,"sources":116,"tags":118,"primary_topic":122,"secondary_topics":128,"classification":129,"search_phrases":157,"slug":160,"view_count":90,"doi":9,"paper":9,"created_at":161},5256,"金秋好\"丰\"景:全国秋粮收获过七成 各地科技绘就好秋收","https:\u002F\u002Fnews.cctv.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F18\u002FARTITlXHF5JPp8dS2rN8hXas261018.shtml","央视网10月18日报道,全国秋粮收获过七成(各区过六至八成);安徽天长123万亩水稻进入收割期、7万多台套农机投入作业;陕西玉米种植面积1945万亩,截至10月15日已收1399.30万亩;山东峄城石榴产量预计7万吨,深加工企业70多家;江苏涟水千层菊进入采收季。","央视网(2026-10-18)","2026-10-18T00:00:00Z","报道",73,{"impact":18,"substance":111,"depth":112,"authority":113,"freshness":114,"relevant":21,"comment":115},16,12,14,9,"央媒发布的全国秋收进度综合报道，数据具体、时效性强，但属常规季节性通报，专业深度有限，可入精选但不宜置顶。",[117],{"name":106,"url":104},[119,26,120,28,121],"水稻","玉米","秋收秋种",{"code":123,"slug":124,"name":125,"path":126,"parent_code":127},"J4","seasonal-agriculture","农时与节庆活动","\u002Ftopic\u002Fpolicy\u002Fseasonal-agriculture","J",[],{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":131},"classified",{"candidates":132,"agricultural_evidence":41},[133,138,143,148,153],{"code":123,"score":114,"supported":41,"title":134,"abstract":136,"tags":137},[135],"秋收",[],[121],{"code":139,"score":63,"supported":41,"title":140,"abstract":141,"tags":142},"A1",[],[119],[119],{"code":144,"score":63,"supported":41,"title":145,"abstract":146,"tags":147},"A3",[],[120],[120],{"code":47,"score":63,"supported":41,"title":149,"abstract":150,"tags":152},[],[151],"农机",[28],{"code":39,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":154,"abstract":155,"tags":156},[],[],[26],[158,159],"全国秋粮收获 七成","安徽天长 水稻 收割","全国秋粮收获七成-5256","2026-10-19T00:07:31.626252Z",{"id":163,"title":164,"url":165,"summary":166,"summary_zh":167,"content":9,"source_name":168,"source_url":165,"published_at":169,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":170,"sources":172,"tags":174,"primary_topic":178,"secondary_topics":184,"classification":185,"search_phrases":211,"slug":214,"view_count":215,"doi":216,"paper":217,"created_at":235},4355,"Agricultural Flood Damage Assessment: A Systematic Review of Methods, Coverage, and Integration Gaps","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5194\u002Fegusphere-2026-3701","Abstract. Agricultural flooding causes tens of billions of dollars in annual losses globally, yet the methods used to assess these losses systematically capture only a fraction of their true economic scope. This systematic review synthesizes 65 peer-reviewed studies published between 1984 and 2025 to evaluate how agricultural flood damage is measured, what damage categories are covered, and where critical methodological gaps persist. We find a structural asymmetry across the reviewed literature – all 65 reviewed studies address direct immediate damages – primarily crop yield loss estimated through depth-damage functions or remote sensing – while direct induced effects appear in only 8 studies, indirect damages in 9, and intangible damages in fewer than 5. This asymmetry has persisted for four decades, through a major remote sensing revolution, because the dominant methods are structurally incapable of measuring damage categories beyond direct immediate losses. We introduce a Methods-by-Damage-Category Matrix that maps eight assessment methods against five damage categories, making the coverage gap visible and providing a diagnostic framework for method selection. Three post-2013 damage frontiers – long-term land productivity degradation, supply chain finance disruption, and farmer mental health – are identified as emerging categories warranting dedicated methodological development. Existing agricultural flood damage estimates used in benefit–cost analyses and disaster compensation are systematically downward-biased; closing this bias requires integrating remote sensing-based physical detection with economic valuation methods capable of capturing the full damage taxonomy.","摘要：农业洪水每年在全球造成数百亿美元损失，然而用于系统评估这些损失的方法仅能捕捉其真实经济影响的一小部分。本系统综述综合了1984年至2025年间发表的65项同行评审研究，评估农业洪水损失如何被测量、涵盖了哪些损失类别，以及关键方法论空白存在于何处。我们发现，所综述文献中存在结构性不对称——全部65项研究均涉及直接即时损失，主要是通过深度-损失函数或遥感估算的作物产量损失——而直接诱发效应仅出现在8项研究中，间接损失出现在9项研究中，无形损失则不足5项。这种不对称已持续四十年，历经遥感技术的重大革命，因为主流方法在结构上无法测量直接即时损失之外的损失类别。我们引入“方法-损失类别矩阵”，将八种评估方法与五类损失类别进行对应，使覆盖缺口清晰可见，并为方法选择提供诊断框架。2013年后的三个损失前沿——长期土地生产力退化、供应链金融中断和农民心理健康——被识别为值得专门方法论开发的新兴类别。现有用于成本效益分析和灾害补偿的农业洪水损失估算存在系统性低估；弥合这一偏差需要将基于遥感的物理检测与能够捕捉完整损失分类的经济估值方法相结合。","OpenAlex","2026-10-06T00:00:00Z",{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":171},"系统综述揭示农业洪灾损失评估长期偏低估的方法学缺口，提出方法-损失类别矩阵，对灾害补偿与成本收益分析有实质参考价值。",[173],{"name":168,"url":165},[175,26,27,176,177],"农业信息化","遥感监测","灾害评估",{"code":179,"slug":180,"name":181,"path":182,"parent_code":183},"I3","remote-sensing","遥感与农情监测","\u002Ftopic\u002Fdigital-agriculture\u002Fremote-sensing","I",[],{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":186},{"candidates":187,"agricultural_evidence":41},[188,194,198,202,206],{"code":179,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":189,"abstract":190,"tags":193},[],[191,192],"遥感","remote sensing",[176],{"code":39,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":195,"abstract":196,"tags":197},[],[],[26],{"code":62,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":199,"abstract":200,"tags":201},[],[],[27],{"code":69,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":203,"abstract":204,"tags":205},[],[],[177],{"code":207,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":208,"abstract":209,"tags":210},"I1",[],[],[175],[212,213],"农业洪涝灾害 损失评估","遥感 农作物 灾害损失","农业洪涝灾害损失评估-4355",2,"10.5194\u002Fegusphere-2026-3701",{"doi":216,"openalex_id":218,"authors":219,"venue":9,"cited_by_count":90,"oa_url":165,"card":229,"direction":233,"ingested_from":97},"W7220668753",[220,223,226],{"name":221,"orcid":222},"Shokhrukh–Mirzo Jalilov","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-2428-9094",{"name":224,"orcid":225},"Haluk Gedikoğlu","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-0158-2597",{"name":227,"orcid":228},"Robert Maltsbarger","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0003-7801-8390",{"tldr":230,"method":231,"finding":232,"direction":233,"opportunity":234},"系统综述65项农业洪水损失评估研究，揭示方法仅覆盖直接即时损失的结构性偏差。","系统综述1984-2025年65篇文献，构建方法-损失类别矩阵。","所有研究仅测直接即时损失，间接、诱导及无形损失严重缺失，致损失估计系统性偏低。","农业遥感与作物表型","可开发融合遥感与经济学估值的方法，量化长期土地退化、供应链金融与农户心理健康等新兴损失类别。","2026-10-07T23:30:25.887527Z",{"id":237,"title":238,"url":239,"summary":240,"summary_zh":241,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":239,"published_at":242,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":243,"score_detail":244,"sources":249,"tags":251,"primary_topic":255,"secondary_topics":260,"classification":266,"search_phrases":285,"slug":288,"view_count":289,"doi":290,"paper":291,"created_at":310},4289,"When climate risk intensifies, does insurance pay off? A community case study of China's agricultural insurance reform","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1954205","In the context of mounting global climate threats, fostering resilience in food production systems has become a critical imperative for upholding national food security. This paper exploits the staggered implementation, beginning in 2018, of China's agricultural insurance reforms covering full production costs and planting income as a quasi-natural experiment. Drawing on provincial panel data from 2013 to 2024, we first develop a multidimensional composite index to capture food production resilience. A staggered difference-in-differences specification is then adopted to systematically assess the causal effect of these reforms on such resilience and to explore the underlying transmission channels. Moreover, from a novel climate change perspective, the analysis examines the heterogeneous treatment effects across varying degrees of climate risk exposure. The empirical findings reveal that the policy-led agricultural insurance reform significantly and robustly enhances China's food production resilience. Mechanism tests indicate that advances in agricultural technology and the expansion of large-scale farming operations serve as important pathways through which the insurance policy takes effect. Further investigation shows that climate change risk positively moderates the policy impact: as climate risk intensifies, the marginal contribution of insurance to resilience becomes stronger. Heterogeneity analysis also demonstrates that the policy effect is more pronounced in western China and in localities with higher rates of disaster-induced losses. Taken together, these results offer solid empirical backing for broadening the pilot programs of full cost and planting income insurance. They also establish a theoretical basis for positioning publicly supported agricultural insurance as an effective instrument for climate change adaptation, providing valuable guidance on strengthening the climate adaptability and resilience of food production to ensure national food security.","在全球气候威胁日益加剧的背景下，增强粮食生产系统的韧性已成为维护国家粮食安全的关键任务。本文以2018年起分阶段实施的中国农业保险覆盖完全生产成本和种植收入的改革为准自然实验，基于2013—2024年省级面板数据，首先构建多维复合指数以刻画粮食生产韧性，继而采用交错双重差分模型系统评估该改革对粮食生产韧性的因果效应并探究其传导机制。此外，本文从气候变化这一新视角出发，考察了不同气候风险暴露程度下的异质性处理效应。实证结果表明，政策主导的农业保险改革显著且稳健地提升了中国粮食生产韧性。机制检验表明，农业技术进步与规模化经营扩张是保险政策发挥作用的重要路径。进一步研究发现，气候变化风险对政策效应具有正向调节作用：随着气候风险加剧，保险对韧性的边际贡献增强。异质性分析还表明，政策效应在中国西部地区以及灾害损失率较高的地区更为显著。综上，上述结果为扩大完全成本保险和种植收入保险试点提供了坚实的经验依据，也为将公共支持的农业保险定位为气候变化适应的有效工具奠定了理论基础，为增强粮食生产的气候适应性与韧性、保障国家粮食安全提供了有价值的政策启示。","2026-10-05T00:00:00Z",88,{"impact":245,"substance":246,"depth":247,"authority":113,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":248},24,23,19,"基于2013-2024年省级面板数据的交错DID准自然实验，证实农业保险改革显著提升粮食生产韧性且气候风险具有正向调节作用，方法规范、结论可靠，对完善农业保险试点具有政策参考价值。",[250],{"name":10,"url":239},[26,27,252,253,254],"农业政策","气候适应","生产韧性",{"code":62,"slug":256,"name":257,"path":258,"parent_code":259},"rural-finance","农村金融与保险","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Frural-finance","G",[261],{"code":69,"slug":262,"name":263,"path":264,"parent_code":265},"climate","气候适应与防灾减灾","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Fclimate","H",{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":267},{"candidates":268,"agricultural_evidence":41},[269,275,281],{"code":62,"score":270,"supported":41,"title":271,"abstract":273,"tags":274},15,[272],"agricultural insurance",[27,272],[27],{"code":69,"score":13,"supported":41,"title":276,"abstract":277,"tags":280},[],[278,253,279],"气候变化","climate change",[253],{"code":39,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":282,"abstract":283,"tags":284},[],[26,44],[26],[286,287],"农业保险改革 粮食生产韧性","完全成本保险 种植收入保险","农业保险改革粮食生产韧性-4289",3,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1954205",{"doi":290,"openalex_id":292,"authors":293,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":90,"oa_url":239,"card":305,"direction":95,"ingested_from":97},"W7220367453",[294,297,299,301,303],{"name":295,"orcid":296},"Changzhe Deng","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0006-0852-5997",{"name":298,"orcid":9},"Maimiao Sun",{"name":300,"orcid":9},"Xueyu Lin",{"name":302,"orcid":9},"Chencan Rao",{"name":304,"orcid":9},"Qiuping Guo",{"tldr":306,"method":307,"finding":308,"direction":95,"opportunity":309},"基于2013-2024省级面板数据，评估中国农业保险改革对粮食生产韧性的因果影响。","多维度韧性指数+交错双重差分，利用2018年起保险改革试点作准自然实验。","保险改革显著提升粮食生产韧性，气候风险越高其边际贡献越强，西部和灾损高地区效果更明显。","可探究保险改革与农业技术、规模化经营的协同机制，及气候风险下保险产品设计与精准赔付的优化路径。","2026-10-06T23:30:05.886883Z",{"id":312,"title":313,"url":314,"summary":315,"summary_zh":9,"content":316,"source_name":317,"source_url":9,"published_at":318,"category":319,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":41,"score":320,"score_detail":321,"sources":324,"tags":326,"primary_topic":330,"secondary_topics":331,"classification":332,"search_phrases":348,"slug":351,"view_count":21,"doi":9,"paper":9,"created_at":352},4249,"四部门联合印发加快农业保险高质量发展实施方案","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.fengxin.gov.cn\u002Ffxxrmzf\u002Fzfcgxgxx\u002Fpc\u002Fcontent\u002F2104516031187619840\u002Fcontent_2104516031187619840.html","财政部会同农业农村部、金融监管总局、国家林草局联合印发财金〔2026〕88号《关于加快农业保险高质量发展的实施方案》，是我国农业保险近二十年发展经验的提炼。我国农业保险保费规模从2007年52亿元增长到2025年超1550亿元，每年可为上亿户次农户提供风险保障超5万亿元。","为推动农业保险政策更加普惠、区域发展更加均衡、保障质效持续提升，本次《实施方案》明确了下一阶段发展目标：到2030年，基本建成与农户风险保障需求相契合、与现代农业发展相适应、中央与地方分工负责的多层次农业保险体系，总体达到国际先进水平，实现补贴有效率、产业有保障、农民得实惠、机构可持续的多赢格局。\n\n2019年出台的指导性文件提出了到2022年农业保险深度1%、密度500元\u002F人、三大粮食作物保险覆盖率70%以上等阶段性目标。在此基础上，《实施方案》进一步明确如下发展目标：一是“农业保险深度”，即农业保险保费与第一产业增加值的比值，反映农业保险对农村经济发展的贡献，2030年前达到1.9%。二是“农业保险密度”，即农业保险保费与第一产业就业人员数量的比值，反映农业保险人均惠及保障程度，2030年前达到1200元\u002F人。三是“农业保险科技投入强度”，即农业保险机构科技创新投入与农业保险保费的比值，反映农业保险行业科技创新应用水平，2030年前达到1%。其中，农业保险科技创新投入主要包括农业保险科技工作人员支出、科技服务费用、科技类无形资产和固定资产等项目。四是“三大粮食作物保险覆盖率”，对于关系国计民生和粮食安全的三大粮食作物，全国范围内农业保险覆盖率稳定在90%左右，各省份结合实际制定相关目标。同时，提升地方优势特色农业保险对特色农业产业的保障水平，更好发挥富农强农作用。五是“农业保险综合费用率”，强调不得高于20%，引导农业保险承保机构切实降本增效，将更多资源用于风险保障和理赔服务上。","奉新县人民政府 转载财政部金融司 2026-10-01","2026-10-01T01:00:00Z","政策",92,{"impact":322,"substance":245,"depth":247,"authority":270,"freshness":55,"relevant":21,"comment":323},28,"四部门联合印发的全国性农业保险新政，明确2030年保险深度1.9%、密度1200元\u002F人等量化目标，政策条款与数据增量突出，权威性和专业深度俱佳，值得进入每日精选。",[325],{"name":317,"url":314},[26,327,27,328,329],"惠农政策","农业科技投入","风险保障",{"code":62,"slug":256,"name":257,"path":258,"parent_code":259},[],{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":333},{"candidates":334,"agricultural_evidence":41},[335,339,343],{"code":62,"score":112,"supported":41,"title":336,"abstract":337,"tags":338},[27],[27],[27],{"code":39,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":340,"abstract":341,"tags":342},[],[],[26],{"code":344,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":345,"abstract":346,"tags":347},"J2",[],[],[328],[349,350],"三大粮食作物保险覆盖率 90%","农业科技投入 农业保险 惠农政策 粮食安全","三大粮食作物保险覆盖率90%-4249","2026-10-06T00:04:59.342384Z",{"id":354,"title":355,"url":356,"summary":357,"summary_zh":358,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":356,"published_at":359,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":41,"score":360,"score_detail":361,"sources":363,"tags":365,"primary_topic":368,"secondary_topics":371,"classification":372,"search_phrases":394,"slug":397,"view_count":289,"doi":398,"paper":399,"created_at":419},3873,"Beyond symmetry: asymmetric input shocks, the mechanization paradox, and dynamic pathways to grain yield stability in China (1983–2023)","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1878122","The dynamic response of China's grain yield to agricultural input shocks and whether these responses differ between short- and long-run horizons remains inadequately understood. This study employs a Dynamic ARDL simulation framework on national data from 1983 to 2023 to dissect the short- and long-run effects of irrigated area, cultivated land, fertilizer use, and agricultural mechanization on grain yield. Long-run elasticities reveal that irrigated area, cultivated land, and fertilizer exert positive and significant effects on grain yield, whereas mechanization exhibits a negative coefficient. Short-run dynamics indicate that only irrigation and cultivated land confer immediate benefits; mechanization and fertilizer effects materialize over multiple years, with a stable and rapid error-correction mechanism confirming swift adjustment toward equilibrium. Dynamic simulations further reveal three robust patterns: positive irrigation and land shocks generate sustained yield gains; mechanization shocks initially suppress yield before a delayed recovery; and fertilizer shocks are fundamentally asymmetric—positive shocks stabilize yields at higher levels, whereas negative shocks paradoxically produce short-run spikes followed by substantial long-run losses. Policy should prioritize gradual fertilizer reduction, irrigation expansion in water-scarce regions, and a fundamental shift in mechanization subsidies from horsepower to yield efficiency.","中国粮食产量对农业投入冲击的动态响应，以及这些响应在短期与长期之间是否存在差异，仍未得到充分理解。本研究基于1983—2023年全国数据，采用动态ARDL模拟框架，剖析灌溉面积、耕地面积、化肥施用和农业机械化对粮食产量的短期与长期效应。长期弹性表明，灌溉面积、耕地面积和化肥对粮食产量具有显著正向影响，而机械化则呈现负向系数。短期动态显示，只有灌溉和耕地能够带来即时收益；机械化和化肥效应需经过多年才能显现，稳定且快速的误差修正机制证实了向均衡的迅速调整。动态模拟进一步揭示了三种稳健模式：灌溉和耕地正向冲击产生持续的产量增长；机械化冲击最初抑制产量，随后延迟恢复；化肥冲击则具有根本性的非对称特征——正向冲击使产量稳定在较高水平，而负向冲击 paradoxically 先引起短期骤增，随后造成长期大幅损失。政策应优先推进化肥减量、在水资源短缺地区扩大灌溉，并从根本上将机械化补贴重心从马力转向产量效率。","2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",85,{"impact":18,"substance":246,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":114,"relevant":21,"comment":362},"基于1983—2023年全国数据的动态ARDL研究，揭示化肥冲击的非对称效应与机械化悖论，对粮食稳产政策有实质参考价值。",[364],{"name":10,"url":356},[26,28,366,58,367],"化肥减量","农业投入",{"code":54,"slug":59,"name":369,"path":370,"parent_code":265},"水资源与灌溉","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Firrigation",[],{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":373},{"candidates":374,"agricultural_evidence":41},[375,380,384,390],{"code":54,"score":114,"supported":41,"title":376,"abstract":377,"tags":379},[],[58,378,59],"水资源",[],{"code":47,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":381,"abstract":382,"tags":383},[],[50,51],[28],{"code":385,"score":63,"supported":41,"title":386,"abstract":387,"tags":389},"F3",[],[388],"fertilizer",[366],{"code":39,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":391,"abstract":392,"tags":393},[],[],[26],[395,396],"中国 粮食产量 农业投入","农业机械化 粮食产量 稳定性","中国粮食产量农业投入-3873","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1878122",{"doi":398,"openalex_id":400,"authors":401,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":90,"oa_url":356,"card":413,"direction":417,"ingested_from":97},"W7214953201",[402,404,406,408,410],{"name":403,"orcid":9},"Baozhong Cai",{"name":405,"orcid":9},"Fang Shi",{"name":407,"orcid":9},"Betelhem A. Geremew",{"name":409,"orcid":9},"Meseret C. Abate",{"name":411,"orcid":412},"Amsalu K. Addis","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6661-7201",{"tldr":414,"method":415,"finding":416,"direction":417,"opportunity":418},"用动态ARDL模型分析1983–2023年中国农业投入冲击对粮食产量的非对称短长期影响。","动态ARDL模拟，使用1983–2023年全国灌溉、耕地、化肥、机械化与粮食产量","机械化长期抑制产量且短期先降后升；化肥冲击非对称，减施短期增产但长期大损。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可构建分省面板非对称动态模型，探究机械化从马力补贴转向效率补贴的产量稳定路径。","2026-10-01T23:30:07.222326Z",{"id":421,"title":422,"url":423,"summary":424,"summary_zh":425,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":423,"published_at":426,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":427,"score_detail":428,"sources":430,"tags":432,"primary_topic":436,"secondary_topics":441,"classification":442,"search_phrases":475,"slug":478,"view_count":78,"doi":479,"paper":480,"created_at":502},3333,"Beyond administrative boundaries: how agricultural socialized services drive grain-oriented cropping transformation in China","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1920691","China’s grain security rests on a smallholder sector in which the average household cultivates 0.6 hectares, a scale that constrains mechanization and limits gains in production efficiency. Since 2013 the government has responded through agricultural socialized service (ASS) pilots, which deliver mechanized and technical services to fragmented producers without altering land ownership. Causal evidence on how such policies reshape land allocation remains scarce, and their reach beyond implementing jurisdictions has been largely overlooked. Drawing on a panel of 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2022, this study combines a multi-period difference-in-differences design with a spatial Durbin model to estimate the effect of the ASS pilots on grain-oriented cropping structure. The policy raises the grain share of sown area by 2.8 percentage points, an effect concentrated almost entirely in wheat, the most mechanization-compatible of the major grains. Four transmission channels register significant responses: land transfer consolidation, agricultural mechanization, cooperative development, and a widening rather than a narrowing of the grain portfolio. The last of these runs counter to the conventional specialization account and is consistent with service provision relaxing the timing constraint on multiple cropping, so that grain expansion and crop diversity advance together rather than trading off. Heterogeneity tracks physical conditions more closely than administrative geography: the estimated effect in plains provinces is roughly twice that in hilly provinces, whereas differences across the eastern, central and western belts are not statistically distinguishable. Spillovers are substantial. Indirect effects are 1.8 times direct effects and account for close to two thirds of the total, so non-spatial estimation understates the total policy effect by approximately 41% while overstating its purely local component by approximately 40%. Three implications follow: target service expansion by mechanization compatibility rather than by administrative region; sequence implementation outward from high-capacity provinces so that spillovers are harvested deliberately rather than incidentally; and evaluate service-oriented policies at a supra-provincial scale, since province-by-province assessment misstates both their magnitude and their geographic incidence.","中国的粮食安全建立在小农部门之上，户均耕地仅0.6公顷，这一规模制约了机械化并限制了生产效率的提升。自2013年以来，政府通过农业社会化服务（agricultural socialized service，ASS）试点予以应对，在不改变土地所有权的前提下，为细碎化生产者提供机械化与技术服务。关于此类政策如何重塑土地配置的因果证据仍然稀缺，且其超出实施辖区之外的溢出效应在很大程度上被忽视。本研究基于2006年至2022年中国30个省份的面板数据，将多期双重差分设计与空间杜宾模型相结合，估计ASS试点对粮食导向种植结构的影响。该政策使粮食播种面积占比提高2.8个百分点，这一效应几乎完全集中于小麦——主要粮食品种中与机械化兼容性最高者。四条传导渠道呈现显著响应：土地流转整合、农业机械化、合作社发展，以及粮食组合的拓宽而非收窄。最后一条与传统的专业化解释相悖，而与服务供给放松多熟制时间约束相一致，从而使粮食扩张与作物多样性齐头并进而非相互权衡。异质性更多地随自然条件而非行政区划而变化：平原省份的估计效应约为丘陵省份的两倍，而东部、中部和西部地带之间的差异在统计上不可区分。溢出效应十分显著。间接效应为直接效应的1.8倍，占总效应的近三分之二，因此非空间估计将政策总效应低估约41%，同时将其纯本地成分高估约40%。由此得出三点启示：应按机械化兼容性而非行政区划来定位服务扩展；从高能力省份向外依次推进实施，以便有意识地而非偶然地获取溢出效应；并在跨省尺度上评估服务导向型政策，因为逐省评估会误判其效应大小和地理分布。","2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",86,{"impact":18,"substance":246,"depth":17,"authority":113,"freshness":114,"relevant":21,"comment":429},"基于30省2006—2022年面板数据的准自然实验研究，量化农业社会化服务试点对粮食种植结构的因果效应与跨省溢出，结论对服务政策的空间布局有直接参考价值。",[431],{"name":10,"url":423},[26,28,433,434,435],"农业社会化服务","空间溢出效应","农地流转",{"code":437,"slug":438,"name":439,"path":440,"parent_code":259},"G2","farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services",[],{"status":130,"locked":14,"version":34,"method":35,"evidence":443},{"candidates":444,"agricultural_evidence":41},[445,454,459,463,470],{"code":437,"score":446,"supported":41,"title":447,"abstract":448,"tags":453},11,[],[449,450,451,452],"土地流转","社会化服务","smallholder","land transfer",[433,435],{"code":39,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":455,"abstract":456,"tags":458},[],[26,457],"grain security",[26],{"code":47,"score":40,"supported":41,"title":460,"abstract":461,"tags":462},[],[50,51],[28],{"code":464,"score":55,"supported":41,"title":465,"abstract":466,"tags":469},"A2",[],[467,468],"小麦","wheat",[],{"code":471,"score":21,"supported":14,"title":472,"abstract":473,"tags":474},"I4",[],[],[434],[476,477],"农业社会化服务 粮食种植结构","农业社会化服务试点 空间杜宾模型","农业社会化服务粮食种植结构-3333","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1920691",{"doi":479,"openalex_id":481,"authors":482,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":90,"oa_url":423,"card":496,"direction":500,"ingested_from":97},"W7214079035",[483,486,489,491,493],{"name":484,"orcid":485},"Ruofan Liao","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0009-5058-7368",{"name":487,"orcid":488},"Kexin Zhang","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0000-3967-2080",{"name":490,"orcid":9},"Zhengtao Chen",{"name":492,"orcid":9},"Mi Tan",{"name":494,"orcid":495},"Jianxu Liu","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-2128-6015",{"tldr":497,"method":498,"finding":499,"direction":500,"opportunity":501},"评估农业社会化服务试点如何跨行政区推动粮食种植结构转型。","2006-2022年30省面板，多期DID与空间杜宾模型。","试点使粮食播种面积占比提高2.8个百分点，以小麦为主，溢出效应约为直接效应的1.8倍。","数字乡村与农业信息化","可研究社会化服务跨区溢出的空间机制，及机械化适配性对作物多样性与粮食安全协同的影响。","2026-09-24T23:30:07.111992Z"]