[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-4874":3,"related-4874":84},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":24,"tags":26,"primary_topic":32,"secondary_topics":38,"classification":39,"search_phrases":63,"slug":66,"view_count":67,"doi":68,"paper":69,"created_at":83},4874,"Estimating the level of rural household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Rushinga Rural District in northern Zimbabwe","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1875364","Introduction Rural households in semi-arid Zimbabwe face recurrent food insecurity because their livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive agriculture, limited assets, and weak rural service systems. However, household-level evidence on the dimensions that construct resilience to food insecurity in Southern Africa remains limited. The study estimates multidimensional rural household resilience to food insecurity in Rushinga District, Zimbabwe; identifies the relative contributions of eight livelihood-related resilience dimensions; and examines resilience patterns by livelihood orientation and household headship, using cross-sectional survey data from 300 households collected across three wards. Methods The study applied a two-stage procedure informed by the multidimensional structure of the FAO-RIMA-II framework. In the first stage, observable household indicators were grouped a priori into eight theoretically informed resilience dimensions, such as assets, income and food access, social protection, access to basic services, access to natural resources, adaptive capacity, support services, and stability. PCA was used within each dimension to reduce the observed indicators into dimension-level component scores. In the second stage, the retained dimension scores were entered into a factor analysis to examine their joint structure and construct the multidimensional household resilience index. Results The second-order factor analysis retained three factors explaining 59.28% of the variance, with comparatively high absolute loadings for income and food access (0.891), assets (0.793), adaptive capacity (-0.777), stability (0.783), basic services (0.623) and support services (0.813). Access to natural resources did not load strongly on the retained factors, indicating a comparatively weaker contribution within the estimated multidimensional structure. Non-farming households recorded a higher mean resilience score relative to farming households, while female-headed households recorded a lower mean resilience score compared to male-headed households. Conclusion The findings suggest that strengthening rural resilience to food insecurity in Zimbabwe may require a policy approach that supports productive assets, non-farm livelihood diversification, access to basic services, and gender-responsive support systems, alongside agricultural interventions.","引言 津巴布韦半干旱地区的农村家庭面临反复出现的粮食不安全问题，因为其生计高度依赖对气候敏感的农业、资产有限且农村服务体系薄弱。然而，关于南部非洲粮食不安全复原力构成维度的家庭层面证据仍然有限。本研究利用在三个选区收集的300户家庭的横截面调查数据，评估津巴布韦Rushinga区农村家庭多维粮食不安全复原力；识别八个与生计相关的复原力维度的相对贡献；并按生计取向和户主性别考察复原力模式。方法 本研究采用基于FAO-RIMA-II框架多维结构的两阶段程序。第一阶段，将可观测的家庭指标先验地归入八个具有理论依据的复原力维度，如资产、收入与食物获取、社会保护、基本服务获取、自然资源获取、适应能力、支持服务和稳定性。在每个维度内使用PCA将观测指标降维为维度层面的成分得分。第二阶段，将保留的维度得分纳入因子分析，以考察其联合结构并构建多维家庭复原力指数。结果 二阶因子分析保留了三个因子，解释了59.28%的方差，其中收入与食物获取（0.891）、资产（0.793）、适应能力（-0.777）、稳定性（0.783）、基本服务（0.623）和支持服务（0.813）的绝对载荷相对较高。自然资源获取在保留因子上的载荷不强，表明其在所估计的多维结构中贡献相对较弱。非农业家庭的平均复原力得分高于农业家庭，而女性户主家庭的平均复原力得分低于男性户主家庭。结论 研究结果表明，加强津巴布韦农村粮食不安全复原力可能需要一种政策路径，在农业干预措施之外，支持生产性资产、非农生计多样化、基本服务获取和性别响应型支持体系。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-10-13T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,66,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":23},8,20,16,13,9,1,"基于FAO-RIMA-II框架的300户实证研究，方法规范、结论具体，但属津巴布韦地方性案例，对国内三农信息化参考价值有限，可作国际比较素材。",[25],{"name":10,"url":6},[27,28,29,30,31],"粮食安全","非农就业","农户生计","农村抗逆力","性别差异",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},"H7","climate","气候适应与防灾减灾","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Fclimate","H",[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":43},"classified","2026-10-22.2","rules",{"candidates":44,"agricultural_evidence":47},[45,52,58],{"code":33,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":48,"abstract":49,"tags":51},3,true,[],[50],"干旱",[],{"code":53,"score":54,"supported":14,"title":55,"abstract":56,"tags":57},"G6",2,[],[],[29,28],{"code":59,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":60,"abstract":61,"tags":62},"A8",[],[],[27],[64,65],"津巴布韦 Rushinga 农户抗逆力","FAO-RIMA-II 粮食安全","津巴布韦Rushinga农户抗逆力-4874",0,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1875364",{"doi":68,"openalex_id":70,"authors":71,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":6,"card":76,"direction":80,"ingested_from":82},"W7221657887",[72,74],{"name":73,"orcid":9},"Onismo Muzah",{"name":75,"orcid":9},"Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi",{"tldr":77,"method":78,"finding":79,"direction":80,"opportunity":81},"基于津巴布韦300户调查，用FAO-RIMA-II框架估算农村家庭粮食不安全恢复力指数。","两阶段法：各维度内PCA降维，再对维度得分做二阶因子分析构建综合指数。","收入与食物获取、资产、支持服务贡献最大；非农家庭恢复力更高，女性户主家庭更低。","数字乡村与农业信息化","可将恢复力指数与农户数字服务可及性、移动支付等信息化指标结合，检验数字赋能对恢复力的调节作用。","openalex","2026-10-14T23:30:07.234699Z",{"total":85,"page":22,"page_size":85,"items":86},6,[87,190,258,350,418,472],{"id":88,"title":89,"url":90,"summary":91,"summary_zh":92,"content":9,"source_name":93,"source_url":90,"published_at":94,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":95,"score_detail":96,"sources":100,"tags":102,"primary_topic":107,"secondary_topics":112,"classification":120,"search_phrases":167,"slug":170,"view_count":67,"doi":171,"paper":172,"created_at":189},5478,"Characterisation of Food Security Situation for Smallholder Farmers in Zvimba","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30","This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the food security situation among smallholder farmers (SHFs) in Zvimba District, Zimbabwe. Smallholder agriculture is the bedrock of Zimbabwe's food system, yet it remains highly vulnerable to a complex array of shocks and stressors. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research investigates the prevalence, drivers and lived experiences of food insecurity within this community. A structured survey was administered to 412 randomly selected smallholder households across the district's wards. The quantitative data were supplemented by 12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 24 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with farmers, community leaders and agricultural extension officers to capture qualitative nuances. The study is grounded in the Food Security Theory (FST), which conceptualises food security through its four pillars: food availability, food access, food utilisation and food stability. Findings reveal a precarious food security situation. Quantitatively, 78.4% of households were found to be food insecure, with an average Hunger Months Index of 4.7 months per year. The study identifies a significant disconnect between maize production, the national staple and household consumption, with over 65% of households failing to produce enough maize to meet their annual requirements. Qualitative data illuminated the multi-faceted drivers of this insecurity. Key points to note include climate change whereby erratic rainfall and prolonged mid-season dry spells were consistently reported as the primary production challenges, limited access to farming inputs whereby high costs and unreliable supplies of certified seeds, fertilizers and agro[1]chemicals constrain productivity. Morelso, socio-economic factors such as poverty, lack of viable alternative livelihoods and limited access to formal credit perpetuate a cycle of vulnerability. In addition, institutional weaknesses, for example, challenges with agricultural extension services and market inefficiencies, exacerbate the situation. The study concludes that food insecurity in Zvimba is not merely a problem of food production, but is deeply rooted in structural issues affecting food access, food utilisation, as well as food stability. Recommendations are proposed for a multi-sectoral approach, including promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) and drought-resistant crops, strengthening input support systems and rural finance, diversifying livelihood strategies and enhancing the capacity of extension services. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the localised dynamics of food security and provides evidence-based guidance for policymakers, development practitioners and the farmers of Zvimba themselves.","本研究对津巴布韦兹维姆巴区小农户（smallholder farmers, SHFs）的粮食安全状况进行了全面分析。小农农业是津巴布韦粮食体系的基石，但仍极易受到一系列复杂冲击和压力的影响。本研究采用混合方法，考察了该社区粮食不安全的普遍程度、驱动因素及生活体验。研究对该区各选区随机抽取的412户小农户进行了结构化问卷调查。定量数据辅以12次焦点小组讨论（FGDs）和24次关键知情人访谈（KIIs），访谈对象包括农民、社区领袖和农业推广人员，以捕捉定性层面的细微差异。本研究以粮食安全理论（Food Security Theory, FST）为基础，该理论通过四大支柱界定粮食安全：粮食可供性、粮食获取、粮食利用和粮食稳定性。研究结果揭示了严峻的粮食安全形势。定量数据显示，78.4%的家庭存在粮食不安全，年均饥饿月份指数为4.7个月。研究发现，玉米产量——该国主粮——与家庭消费之间存在显著脱节，超过65%的家庭生产的玉米不足以满足其年度需求。定性数据揭示了这一不安全状况的多重驱动因素。值得注意的要点包括：气候变化，即降雨不稳定和持续的中期干旱被一致报告为主要生产挑战；农业投入品获取受限，即认证种子、化肥和农用化学品成本高昂且供应不可靠，制约了生产力。此外，贫困、缺乏可行的替代生计以及正规信贷获取受限等社会经济因素使脆弱性循环持续存在。此外，制度薄弱环节，例如农业推广服务面临的挑战和市场效率低下，加剧了这一状况。研究得出结论，兹维姆巴的粮食不安全不仅仅是粮食生产问题，而是深深植根于影响粮食获取、粮食利用以及粮食稳定性的结构性问题。研究提出了采取多部门方法的建议，包括推广气候智能型农业（Climate-Smart Agriculture, CSA）和抗旱作物、加强投入品支持体系和农村金融、多样化生计策略以及增强","Ngenani The Zimbabwe Ezekiel Guti Journal of Community Engagement and Societal Transformations","2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",55,{"impact":17,"substance":97,"depth":98,"authority":85,"freshness":17,"relevant":22,"comment":99},18,15,"基于412户调查与混合方法的扎实实证研究，但属津巴布韦地方性案例，公共影响与信源权威度有限，可作参考而非每日精选。",[101],{"name":93,"url":90},[27,103,104,105,106],"小农户","气候智慧农业","农业推广","津巴布韦",{"code":59,"slug":108,"name":109,"path":110,"parent_code":111},"yield-food-security","单产提升与粮食安全","\u002Ftopic\u002Ffield-crops\u002Fyield-food-security","A",[113,119],{"code":114,"slug":115,"name":116,"path":117,"parent_code":118},"G2","farm-services","社会化服务与规模经营","\u002Ftopic\u002Frural-services\u002Ffarm-services","G",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":121},{"candidates":122,"agricultural_evidence":47},[123,128,133,140,147,154,161],{"code":59,"score":98,"supported":47,"title":124,"abstract":126,"tags":127},[125],"food security",[27,125],[27],{"code":114,"score":98,"supported":47,"title":129,"abstract":131,"tags":132},[130],"smallholder",[103,130],[103],{"code":33,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":134,"abstract":135,"tags":139},[],[136,50,137,138],"气候变化","climate change","drought",[104],{"code":141,"score":142,"supported":47,"title":143,"abstract":144,"tags":146},"G1",7,[],[105,145],"agricultural extension",[105],{"code":148,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":149,"abstract":150,"tags":153},"A3",[],[151,152],"玉米","maize",[],{"code":155,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":156,"abstract":157,"tags":160},"G3",[],[158,159],"农村金融","rural finance",[],{"code":162,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":163,"abstract":164,"tags":166},"I1",[],[165],"smart agriculture",[],[168,169],"Zvimba 小农户 粮食安全","津巴布韦 小农 玉米","Zvimba小农户粮食安全-5478","10.71458\u002Frx0qpm30",{"doi":171,"openalex_id":173,"authors":174,"venue":93,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":9,"card":183,"direction":188,"ingested_from":82},"W7223029383",[175,178,181],{"name":176,"orcid":177},"Casper Myambo","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0007-8625-7526",{"name":179,"orcid":180},"Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-4123-0238",{"name":182,"orcid":9},"Patience Mutopo",{"tldr":184,"method":185,"finding":186,"direction":80,"opportunity":187},"调查津巴布韦Zvimba小农户粮食安全状况，分析其普遍性、成因与实际体验。","混合方法：412户问卷、12场焦点小组、24个关键人物访谈，基于粮食安全四支柱理","78.4%家庭粮食不安全，年均饥饿月4.7个月，主因是气候、投入、社会经济与制度等结构性问题。","可探索用移动端问卷与遥感产量监测构建小农户粮食安全动态预警与精准干预系统。","智慧农业 \u002F 农业物联网","2026-10-21T23:30:08.937079Z",{"id":191,"title":192,"url":193,"summary":194,"summary_zh":195,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":193,"published_at":196,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":197,"score_detail":198,"sources":200,"tags":202,"primary_topic":206,"secondary_topics":207,"classification":208,"search_phrases":229,"slug":232,"view_count":67,"doi":233,"paper":234,"created_at":257},5372,"Livelihood risks and resilience of rural households: evidence from Sichuan Province, China","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1934397","Rural households in flood-prone areas face overlapping livelihood risks, yet evidence remains limited on how specific risk dimensions are associated with different components of livelihood resilience. This study examined these associations among rural households in three counties of Sichuan Province, China. Cross-sectional questionnaire data were collected from 540 rural households in Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi counties. Composite indices were constructed for health, environmental, financial, and social risks and for buffering, self-organization, and learning capacities. Fractional logit models with county fixed effects were used to estimate adjusted associations, with inference based on village-clustered wild-bootstrap procedures. Social risk was negatively associated with buffering capacity, self-organization capacity, learning capacity, and overall livelihood resilience. Health risk was negatively associated with self-organization capacity at the 10% level and with overall livelihood resilience at the 5% level, but not with buffering or learning capacity. Financial risk was positively associated with overall livelihood resilience in the baseline model, but this association was not robust to excluding loan-amount indicators. Environmental risk was not statistically associated with any resilience outcome. The associations between livelihood risk and resilience were dimension-specific and should not be interpreted as causal. The findings identify social support and access to health services as priorities for further local assessment, while financial vulnerability should be distinguished from credit access and environmental interventions should be guided by additional evidence on local hazards and program performance.","洪涝易发地区的农村家庭面临多重生计风险，但关于具体风险维度与生计韧性不同组成部分之间关联的证据仍然有限。本研究考察了中国四川省三个县农村家庭中这些关联。研究收集了高县、夹江县和岳池县540户农村家庭的横截面问卷数据，构建了健康风险、环境风险、金融风险和社会风险以及缓冲能力、自组织能力和学习能力的综合指数。采用带县级固定效应的分数对数模型估计调整后的关联，推断基于村级聚类野生自助法程序。社会风险与缓冲能力、自组织能力、学习能力及总体生计韧性呈负相关。健康风险在10%水平上与自组织能力呈负相关，在5%水平上与总体生计韧性呈负相关，但与缓冲能力或学习能力无关。金融风险在基准模型中与总体生计韧性呈正相关，但该关联在剔除贷款金额指标后不稳健。环境风险与任何韧性结果均无统计学关联。生计风险与韧性之间的关联具有维度特异性，不应被解释为因果关系。研究结果将社会支持和卫生服务可及性确定为地方进一步评估的优先事项，同时应将金融脆弱性与信贷可及性加以区分，环境干预措施应以关于地方灾害和项目绩效的更多证据为指导。","2026-10-19T00:00:00Z",63,{"impact":17,"substance":97,"depth":98,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":199},"基于四川三县540户问卷的实证研究，揭示社会风险对生计韧性的负向关联，方法规范但属区域案例，公共影响有限，可作参考而非精选。",[201],{"name":10,"url":193},[203,158,204,205,29],"乡村治理","生计韧性","健康服务",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":209},{"candidates":210,"agricultural_evidence":47},[211,216,220,225],{"code":33,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":212,"abstract":213,"tags":215},[],[214],"洪涝",[],{"code":155,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":217,"abstract":218,"tags":219},[],[],[158],{"code":221,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":222,"abstract":223,"tags":224},"G5",[],[],[203],{"code":53,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":226,"abstract":227,"tags":228},[],[],[29],[230,231],"四川 农户 生计韧性","高县 夹江 岳池 农户","四川农户生计韧性-5372","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1934397",{"doi":233,"openalex_id":235,"authors":236,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":193,"card":252,"direction":80,"ingested_from":82},"W7222969600",[237,240,242,244,246,248,250],{"name":238,"orcid":239},"Tao Liu","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-0506-3356",{"name":241,"orcid":9},"Ting Zhao",{"name":243,"orcid":9},"Jiahui Tian",{"name":245,"orcid":9},"Shanshan Zhao",{"name":247,"orcid":9},"Tao Zeng",{"name":249,"orcid":9},"Lijie Xu",{"name":251,"orcid":9},"Wei Liu",{"tldr":253,"method":254,"finding":255,"direction":80,"opportunity":256},"分析四川三县540户农户生计风险各维度与生计韧性各成分的关联。","入户问卷构建风险与韧性指数，用分数logit模型加县固定效应和村级聚类野生自助法","社会风险与各韧性成分及总体韧性负相关，健康风险与总体韧性负相关，环境风险无显著关联。","可结合数字乡村建设，研究社会支持网络与医疗可及性等信息化服务如何提升农户生计韧性。","2026-10-20T23:30:06.775370Z",{"id":259,"title":260,"url":261,"summary":262,"summary_zh":263,"content":9,"source_name":264,"source_url":261,"published_at":265,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":266,"score_detail":267,"sources":271,"tags":273,"primary_topic":277,"secondary_topics":278,"classification":284,"search_phrases":330,"slug":333,"view_count":67,"doi":9,"paper":334,"created_at":349},5312,"Agricultural Production under Climate Change in Afghanistan: Impacts, Challenges and Adaptation Options (A Review)","https:\u002F\u002Fesrj.edu.af\u002Fesrj\u002Farticle\u002Fview\u002F123","Climate change poses serious challenges to agriculture in Afghanistan, a country largely dependent on rainfed farming and highly vulnerable to water scarcity, drought, and temperature extremes. Understanding the impacts of climate variability and identifying effective adaptation strategies are essential to sustain agricultural productivity and ensure food security. This systematic review synthesizes empirical, modeling, and review studies on climate change effects on Afghan agriculture, assesses adaptation measures, and integrates regional experiences from Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. A structured literature search was conducted using peer-reviewed articles, institutional reports, and regional studies published between 2000 and 2025. Studies were selected based on relevance to Afghan agro-ecological systems, climate stressors, and adaptation strategies. We extracted data using a structured table format following PRISMA guidelines, combining national and regional evidence. Findings indicate that water scarcity, prolonged drought, rising temperatures, and erratic precipitation are the main stressors affecting major crops, including wheat, barley, chickpea, maize, and cotton. Yield reductions ranged from 12% to 25% across provinces. Adaptation strategies such as Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), efficient irrigation (drip and sprinkler), rainwater harvesting, mulching, and drought- or heat-tolerant crop varieties were most effective. Regional evidence confirms the transferability of these measures under similar agro-climatic conditions. In conclusion, climate change significantly threatens agricultural productivity in Afghanistan. Evidence-based adaptation strategies, supported by coordinated policy and capacity-building initiatives, can enhance resilience, protect rural livelihoods, and ensure sustainable food security.","气候变化对阿富汗农业构成严峻挑战，该国农业在很大程度上依赖雨养耕作，极易受到水资源短缺、干旱和极端温度的影响。理解气候变异的影响并确定有效的适应策略，对于维持农业生产力和保障粮食安全至关重要。本系统综述综合了关于气候变化对阿富汗农业影响的实证研究、模拟研究和综述研究，评估了适应措施，并整合了巴基斯坦、伊朗、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的区域经验。采用结构化文献检索方法，检索了2000年至2025年间发表的同行评审论文、机构报告和区域研究。研究依据其与阿富汗农业生态系统、气候胁迫因子和适应策略的相关性进行筛选。我们遵循PRISMA指南，采用结构化表格格式提取数据，综合了国家层面和区域层面的证据。研究结果表明，水资源短缺、持续干旱、气温上升和降水不稳定是影响主要作物（包括小麦、大麦、鹰嘴豆、玉米和棉花）的主要胁迫因子。各省产量降幅在12%至25%之间。气候智慧型农业（CSA）、高效灌溉（滴灌和喷灌）、雨水收集、覆盖栽培以及耐旱或耐热作物品种等适应策略最为有效。区域证据证实了这些措施在相似农业气候条件下的可推广性。总之，气候变化显著威胁阿富汗的农业生产力。以协调政策和能力建设举措为支撑的循证适应策略能够增强韧性、保护农村生计并确保可持续的粮食安全。","ESRJ","2026-10-16T00:00:00Z",73,{"impact":97,"substance":18,"depth":268,"authority":269,"freshness":85,"relevant":22,"comment":270},17,12,"系统综述整合2000-2025年证据，量化减产12%-25%并提出可迁移的适应策略，对区域农业气候韧性研究有参考价值，但非国内三农政策或产业事件，时效性一般。",[272],{"name":264,"url":261},[274,27,136,275,276],"智慧农业","适应性策略","水资源短缺",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[279],{"code":280,"slug":281,"name":282,"path":283,"parent_code":37},"H3","irrigation","水资源与灌溉","\u002Ftopic\u002Fenvironment\u002Firrigation",{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":285},{"candidates":286,"agricultural_evidence":47},[287,291,297,301,308,312,319,324],{"code":33,"score":97,"supported":47,"title":288,"abstract":289,"tags":290},[137],[136,50,137,138],[136],{"code":280,"score":21,"supported":47,"title":292,"abstract":293,"tags":296},[],[294,295,281],"灌溉","水资源",[],{"code":59,"score":142,"supported":47,"title":298,"abstract":299,"tags":300},[],[27,125],[27],{"code":302,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":303,"abstract":304,"tags":307},"A2",[],[305,306],"小麦","wheat",[],{"code":148,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":309,"abstract":310,"tags":311},[],[151,152],[],{"code":313,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":314,"abstract":315,"tags":318},"A6",[],[316,317],"棉花","cotton",[],{"code":162,"score":320,"supported":47,"title":321,"abstract":322,"tags":323},4,[],[165],[274],{"code":325,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":326,"abstract":327,"tags":329},"H6",[],[328],"农业生态",[],[331,332],"阿富汗 气候变化","气候智慧型农业 灌溉","阿富汗气候变化-5312",{"doi":9,"openalex_id":335,"authors":336,"venue":264,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":261,"card":343,"direction":188,"ingested_from":82},"W7222907396",[337,339,341],{"name":338,"orcid":9},"Mohammad Shafiq Faieq",{"name":340,"orcid":9},"Mustafa Abid",{"name":342,"orcid":9},"Abdul khalil Afghani",{"tldr":344,"method":345,"finding":346,"direction":347,"opportunity":348},"系统综述气候变化对阿富汗农业的影响、挑战与适应策略。","按PRISMA检索2000-2025年文献，整合阿富汗及周边四国区域证据。","水资源短缺与干旱致主要作物减产12%-25%，气候智慧型农业与节水灌溉最有效。","农业绿色发展与碳","可研究气候智慧型农业措施在阿富汗及周边干旱区的本地化适配与推广机制。","2026-10-19T23:30:11.285828Z",{"id":351,"title":352,"url":353,"summary":354,"summary_zh":355,"content":9,"source_name":356,"source_url":353,"published_at":196,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":357,"score_detail":358,"sources":360,"tags":362,"primary_topic":366,"secondary_topics":367,"classification":375,"search_phrases":399,"slug":402,"view_count":22,"doi":403,"paper":404,"created_at":417},5308,"Geopolitics and food security: A comprehensive review of emerging risks and responses","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.51200\u002Fjsffs.v2i2.7666","This review paper examines the relationship between geopolitics and food security through a Systematic Literature Review guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses framework. A total of 15 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2015 and 2026 were reviewed to identify emerging geopolitical risks and responses affecting global food systems. The study synthesizes literature on armed conflicts, trade restrictions, climate change, supply chain disruptions, energy market instability, and technological transformation in agriculture. The findings identified four major themes. First, geopolitical conflicts and protectionist trade policies significantly disrupt global food supply chains and increase food price volatility. Second, climate-related shock such as droughts, floods, and extreme weather events intensifies food insecurity, particularly in import-dependent and developing economies. Third, weaknesses in global logistics and energy dependence expose food systems to external shocks and market instability. Fourth, technological innovations, including smart farming, precision agriculture, and digital monitoring systems, play an increasingly important role in strengthening agricultural productivity, improving resource efficiency, and enhancing resilience against geopolitical and environmental uncertainties. The policy implications of this study include strengthening regional food reserves, diversifying import sources, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, promoting the adoption of smart farming technologies, and enhancing institutional cooperation between governments and international organizations. The relevance of smart farming is increasingly evident, as precision agriculture, Internet of Things (IoT)-based monitoring systems, and data-driven farming technologies play a critical role in improving productivity, reducing resource inefficiency, and enhancing food system resilience under geopolitical stress. The study contributes to a broader understanding of how geopolitical dynamics shape food security and provides recommendations for building sustainable, resilient, and technology-driven food systems in an increasingly uncertain global environment.","本文通过遵循系统评价与荟萃分析首选报告条目（Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses）框架的系统文献综述，考察地缘政治与粮食安全之间的关系。共 review 了2015年至2026年间发表的15篇同行评审期刊论文，以识别影响全球粮食系统的新兴地缘政治风险与应对措施。本研究综合了关于武装冲突、贸易限制、气候变化、供应链中断、能源市场不稳定以及农业技术转型的文献。研究结果识别出四大主题。第一，地缘政治冲突和保护主义贸易政策显著扰乱全球粮食供应链并加剧粮食价格波动。第二，干旱、洪水和极端天气事件等气候相关冲击加剧粮食不安全，尤其是在依赖进口的经济体和发展中经济体中。第三，全球物流的薄弱环节和能源依赖使粮食系统暴露于外部冲击和市场不稳定之中。第四，包括智慧农业、精准农业和数字监测系统在内的技术创新，在增强农业生产力、提高资源效率以及增强应对地缘政治和环境不确定性的韧性方面发挥着日益重要的作用。本研究的政策启示包括加强区域粮食储备、多元化进口来源、投资气候韧性农业、促进智慧农业技术的采用，以及加强政府与国际组织之间的制度合作。智慧农业的相关性日益明显，因为精准农业、基于物联网（IoT）的监测系统和数据驱动农业技术在提高生产力、减少资源低效以及增强地缘政治压力下粮食系统韧性方面发挥着关键作用。本研究有助于更广泛地理解地缘政治动态如何塑造粮食安全，并为在日益不确定的全球环境中构建可持续、有韧性且技术驱动的粮食系统提供建议。","Journal of Smart Farming and Food Security",77,{"impact":97,"substance":18,"depth":268,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":359},"系统综述梳理地缘政治与粮食安全风险，并强调智慧农业的韧性价值，具政策与产业参考意义，但属综述性论文，非突破性成果。",[361],{"name":356,"url":353},[274,363,27,364,365],"农业供应链","精准农业","地缘政治",{"code":59,"slug":108,"name":109,"path":110,"parent_code":111},[368,369],{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},{"code":370,"slug":371,"name":372,"path":373,"parent_code":374},"I5","agricultural-iot","物联网传感与边缘计算","\u002Ftopic\u002Fdigital-agriculture\u002Fagricultural-iot","I",{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":376},{"candidates":377,"agricultural_evidence":47},[378,382,388,392],{"code":59,"score":98,"supported":47,"title":379,"abstract":380,"tags":381},[125],[27,125],[27],{"code":162,"score":383,"supported":47,"title":384,"abstract":385,"tags":387},11,[],[274,364,386],"precision agriculture",[274,364],{"code":33,"score":21,"supported":47,"title":389,"abstract":390,"tags":391},[],[136,50,137],[],{"code":370,"score":21,"supported":47,"title":393,"abstract":394,"tags":398},[],[395,396,397],"物联网","internet of things","IoT",[],[400,401],"地缘政治 粮食安全","智慧农业 粮食系统韧性","地缘政治粮食安全-5308","10.51200\u002Fjsffs.v2i2.7666",{"doi":403,"openalex_id":405,"authors":406,"venue":356,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":353,"card":412,"direction":188,"ingested_from":82},"W7222902031",[407,409],{"name":408,"orcid":9},"Parameswaran Mahendran",{"name":410,"orcid":411},"Wong Sing Yun","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0001-5776-8852",{"tldr":413,"method":414,"finding":415,"direction":188,"opportunity":416},"系统综述地缘政治风险对粮食安全的影响及应对，强调智慧农业的韧性作用。","按PRISMA框架系统综述2015-2026年15篇同行评议文献。","冲突、贸易限制、气候与能源冲击威胁粮食安全，智慧农业可提升韧性与效率。","可量化研究物联网与精准农业在地缘政治冲击下对粮食系统韧性的实证贡献。","2026-10-19T23:30:07.850994Z",{"id":419,"title":420,"url":421,"summary":422,"summary_zh":9,"content":423,"source_name":424,"source_url":9,"published_at":425,"category":426,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":47,"score":427,"score_detail":428,"sources":432,"tags":434,"primary_topic":439,"secondary_topics":440,"classification":441,"search_phrases":467,"slug":470,"view_count":22,"doi":9,"paper":9,"created_at":471},5250,"全国秋粮收获过七成 农业农村部部署应对最强厄尔尼诺","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.toutiao.com\u002Farticle\u002F7697848015725298214","据农业农村部10月17日农情调度,全国秋粮收获过七成(东北过六成、黄淮海和西南过八成、西北近八成、长江中下游过六成、华南过三成),冬小麦播种过一成、冬油菜过三成;针对赤道中东太平洋已发生的超强东部型厄尔尼诺,部印发防范预案部署\"秋防秋汛防旺长、冬防冻害和雨雪冰冻、春抗倒春寒干旱低温春涝、夏防干热风烂场雨洪涝台风高温\"四季防灾重点。","## 全国秋粮收获过七成 农业相关部门部署应对超强厄尔尼诺保障来年粮食生产\n\n2026-10-18 11:42·[央广网](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.toutiao.com\u002Fc\u002Fuser\u002Ftoken\u002FMS4wLjABAAAAiR6RuL6xARCa1a88UYsGDkFIn-3CItRPyJJaR4Ym4C8\u002F?source=tuwen_detail)\n\n央广网北京10月18日消息（记者朱敏 孙鲁晋）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，农业农村部最新农情调度显示，全国秋粮收获已过七成，冬小麦播种超一成，冬油菜播种过三成。农业农村部近日制定印发防范应对超强厄尔尼诺夺取粮食和农业丰收相关预案，各地部署应对超强厄尔尼诺有关措施，保障来年粮食生产。\n\n根据国家气候中心的监测，目前，赤道中东太平洋已经发生了一次超强的东部型厄尔尼诺事件。预计未来3个月，赤道中东太平洋海表温度将继续升高，在秋末冬初达到峰值，此次厄尔尼诺事件将成为有系统性监测以来最强厄尔尼诺事件，可能对农业生产带来风险挑战。\n\n中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所研究员刘恩科：需重点警惕北方阶段性干旱、南方洪涝、冬春冷暖交替以及台风等多重风险叠加，相关风险可能从今年秋种持续传导至明年春耕和夏季生产。\n\n据农业农村部最新农情调度，当前秋粮收获东北过六成、黄淮海、西南过八成；西北近八成；长江中下游过六成；华南过三成。\n\n面对本轮超强厄尔尼诺，农业农村部明确今年秋季重点是防秋汛、防旺长，冬季防冻害和雨雪冰冻；明年春季抗“倒春寒”、抗干旱、抗低温春涝，夏季防“干热风”、“烂场雨”、洪涝、台风、高温等灾害。\n\n刘恩科：我国农业气象监测预警和防灾减灾体系不断完善，并且我国已建成10亿亩以上的高标准农田，国家长期的夏粮一喷三防、秋粮抗逆防灾政策，为我国农业生产争取了防灾减灾的主动权。\n\n**更多精彩资讯请在应用市场下载“央广网”客户端。欢迎提供新闻线索，24小时报料热线400-800-0088；消费者也可通过央广网“啄木鸟消费者投诉平台”线上投诉。版权声明：本文章版权归属央广网所有，未经授权不得转载。转载请联系：cnrbanquan@cnr.cn，不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任。**","央广网(2026-10-18)","2026-10-18T00:00:00Z","政策",91,{"impact":429,"substance":430,"depth":268,"authority":98,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":431},28,22,"全国性农情数据与部委防灾预案同步发布，信息增量足、权威性强，值得进入每日精选。",[433],{"name":424,"url":421},[27,435,436,437,438],"防灾减灾","厄尔尼诺","秋冬种","秋粮收获",{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},[],{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":442},{"candidates":443,"agricultural_evidence":47},[444,448,452,458,463],{"code":33,"score":142,"supported":47,"title":445,"abstract":446,"tags":447},[],[50,214],[435],{"code":302,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":449,"abstract":450,"tags":451},[],[305],[],{"code":453,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":454,"abstract":455,"tags":457},"A4",[],[456],"油菜",[],{"code":459,"score":54,"supported":14,"title":460,"abstract":461,"tags":462},"J4",[],[],[437,438],{"code":59,"score":22,"supported":14,"title":464,"abstract":465,"tags":466},[],[],[27],[468,469],"农业农村部 超强厄尔尼诺 预案","秋粮收获 冬小麦播种 农情调度","农业农村部超强厄尔尼诺预案-5250","2026-10-19T00:07:31.036094Z",{"id":473,"title":474,"url":475,"summary":476,"summary_zh":477,"content":9,"source_name":478,"source_url":475,"published_at":265,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":479,"score_detail":480,"sources":482,"tags":484,"primary_topic":487,"secondary_topics":488,"classification":491,"search_phrases":557,"slug":560,"view_count":67,"doi":561,"paper":562,"created_at":574},5185,"When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182","When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya For generations, farmers in Western Kenya have watched the skies carefully. The arrival, duration, and distribution of rainfall have traditionally provided important signals about when to prepare land, plant, weed, and harvest. But these signals are becoming increasingly difficult to read. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, while increasingly frequent extreme weather events are making farming more uncertain. The current outlook for the October–December 2026 season brings this challenge sharply into focus. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a wetter-than-normal season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The Lake Victoria Basin, which includes large parts of Western Kenya, is among the areas with a high likelihood of receiving more than 400 mm of seasonal rainfall. ICPAC reports that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected—climate conditions that are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in the region, and is likely to run into February of 2027. But what does this mean for the smallholder farmer? The first point is that more rainfall does not necessarily mean more food. For a farmer whose livelihood depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, abundant rainfall can be a blessing. It can replenish streams and water sources, improve soil moisture, restore pasture and create favourable conditions for crop production. If well distributed, the rains could contribute to improved harvests and household food supplies. The problem arises when rainfall is too intense, too concentrated or poorly distributed. A farmer may receive a great deal of rain in a few days and then experience a dry spell. Another farmer a few kilometres away may receive considerably less. Heavy downpours can cause flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion. Seeds may be washed away soon after planting. Young crops can be submerged or damaged. Valuable topsoil and nutrients can be carried away, reducing the productivity of land in subsequent seasons. This is particularly important in Western Kenya, where many households depend on small parcels of land for both food and income. A failed or damaged crop is not simply an agricultural loss. It can mean less food in the household, less money for school fees and health care, and fewer resources to purchase nutritious foods. The food-security paradox We must, therefore, look beyond agricultural production to food and nutrition security. A household may produce enough maize yet still have a poor diet if vegetables, legumes, fruits, milk, eggs or other foods are unavailable or unaffordable. Climate shocks can reduce this diversity. When crops are damaged, families may depend more heavily on whatever staple food remains available. This is why climate resilience must also be nutrition-sensitive. Western Kenya has a rich agricultural tradition and considerable potential for diversified food production. Farmers grow cereals, legumes, vegetables and root crops and keep livestock and poultry. Such diversity is not merely an agricultural advantage; it is a nutritional resource. It can provide different foods, spread risk and generate income at different times of the year. Climate adaptation should, therefore, not encourage farmers simply to produce more of one crop. It should help them build diverse and resilient farming systems. Women carry a large part of the burden The impact of erratic and excessive rainfall also has a gender dimension. Women in smallholder households are often deeply involved in food production, processing, preparation and household nutrition. When harvests fail, or food prices rise, women frequently have to find ways of stretching limited household resources to feed the family. When roads become impassable or markets are disrupted, women may have greater difficulty accessing food and agricultural inputs. When water sources are contaminated or damaged, household responsibilities can become even more demanding. Climate adaptation must therefore deliberately include women—not simply as beneficiaries, but as decision-makers, innovators, farmers and leaders. Young people must also be part of the solution There is another group that deserves greater attention: young people. Western Kenya cannot build climate-resilient agriculture while treating agriculture as an occupation of the past. Young people need to see opportunities in modern farming, agro-processing, food safety, climate information services, irrigation, digital agriculture and agricultural entrepreneurship. The increasing unpredictability of climate may actually provide an opportunity to make agriculture more innovative. Young people can help introduce new technologies, improve access to climate information, develop value-added products and create businesses around food production and processing. From forecasting to action The availability of a climate forecast is useful only if it reaches the people who need it in time. Farmers need information that answers practical questions: When should I plant? Which crops or varieties are appropriate? How can I protect my soil? What should I do if rainfall becomes excessive? How can I protect harvested food? Where can I obtain reliable seed and other inputs? Seasonal forecasts should, therefore, be translated into local, practical agricultural advice. ICPAC itself emphasizes that seasonal forecasts should be used together with weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological information. This requires stronger links between meteorological services, agricultural extension officers, researchers, county governments, farmer organizations and communities. We should also strengthen simple but important measures: water harvesting, drainage, terracing and soil conservation; planting crops and varieties suited to local conditions; maintaining vegetation cover; diversifying crops and livestock; improving storage facilities; and protecting food from moisture and contamination. Prepare before the rain comes The greatest lesson from the current El Niño outlook is perhaps that preparedness must begin before the first heavy rains arrive. Governments and development partners should not wait for floods, damaged roads, destroyed crops or food shortages before responding. Early warning should lead to early action. Farmers should be supported to prepare their farms, protect livestock, secure seed and inputs, strengthen food storage and identify alternative routes to markets. This is particularly important because the same season can produce both opportunities and losses. ICPAC notes that enhanced rainfall can support agricultural production and replenish water resources, but can simultaneously increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas. A changing climate requires a different agricultural mindset Perhaps the most important change we need is in the way we think about farming. For too long, agricultural planning has often assumed that rainfall will behave according to a familiar calendar. That assumption is becoming increasingly unsafe. Farmers now have to manage not only too little rain, but also too much rain, rain at the wrong time and rain in the wrong place. The challenge is, therefore, not simply to produce more food. It is to build food systems that can continue providing adequate, diverse, safe and nutritious food under increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Western Kenya's smallholder farmers should not be left alone to carry this burden. They need science that responds to their realities, extension services that reach them, climate information they can understand and use, financial services that help them manage risk, markets that function during difficult seasons, and policies that recognize the central role of smallholder agriculture in national food and nutrition security, and partners who are willing to appreciate and make use of indigenous knowledge. El Niño should, therefore, be viewed neither simply as a disaster nor automatically as a blessing. It is a climate event whose consequences will depend greatly on our preparedness. The question before us is not merely, “Will the rains come?” They probably will. The more important question is: Will our farmers, food systems and institutions be ready when they do? That is where climate resilience—and ultimately food and nutrition security—will be tested. Prof. Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o Founder and Editor-in-Chief, AJFAND ORCiD: https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","当雨水过多时：厄尔尼诺现象、小农户与肯尼亚西部的粮食安全\n\n世代以来，肯尼亚西部的农民一直密切关注着天空。降雨的到来、持续时间和分布，传统上为何时整地、播种、除草和收获提供了重要信号。但这些信号正变得越来越难以解读。气候变化正在改变降雨模式，而日益频繁的极端天气事件使农业变得更加不确定。当前对2026年10月至12月季节的展望使这一挑战凸显出来。政府间发展组织气候预测与应用中心（ICPAC）预测，大非洲之角大部分地区将迎来高于正常水平的湿润季节。维多利亚湖流域——包括肯尼亚西部的大部分地区——属于极有可能获得超过400毫米季节性降雨的区域之一。ICPAC报告称，厄尔尼诺现象已经形成并预计将增强，同时预计还将出现正印度洋偶极子——这些气候条件通常与该地区降雨增强相关，并可能持续到2027年2月。但这对小农户意味着什么？首先，更多降雨并不必然意味着更多粮食。对于生计几乎完全依赖雨养农业的农民来说，充沛的降雨可能是福。它可以补充溪流和水源、改善土壤湿度、恢复牧场，并为作物生产创造有利条件。如果分布良好，降雨可能有助于改善收成和家庭粮食供应。问题出现在降雨过于猛烈、过于集中或分布不均的时候。一个农民可能在几天内获得大量降雨，随后又经历一段干旱期。几公里外的另一个农民可能获得的降雨少得多。暴雨可能引发洪水、渍涝和土壤侵蚀。种子可能在播种后不久被冲走。幼苗可能被淹没或受损。宝贵的表土和养分可能被带走，降低土地在后续季节的生产力。这在肯尼亚西部尤为重要，因为许多家庭依赖小块土地获取食物和收入。作物歉收或受损不仅仅是农业损失。它可能意味着家庭食物减少、用于学费和医疗的钱减少，以及购买营养食品的资源减少。粮食安全……","African Journal of Food Agriculture Nutrition and Development",75,{"impact":97,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":17,"relevant":22,"comment":481},"核心期刊评论文章，结合El Niño预测讨论小农户气候适应与粮食营养安全，有实质分析与行动建议，但属区域案例、非信息化技术突破。",[483],{"name":478,"url":475},[485,27,103,104,486],"肯尼亚","气候预警",{"code":59,"slug":108,"name":109,"path":110,"parent_code":111},[489,490],{"code":114,"slug":115,"name":116,"path":117,"parent_code":118},{"code":33,"slug":34,"name":35,"path":36,"parent_code":37},{"status":40,"locked":14,"version":41,"method":42,"evidence":492},{"candidates":493,"agricultural_evidence":47},[494,498,502,508,515,519,525,531,537,543,549,553],{"code":59,"score":98,"supported":47,"title":495,"abstract":496,"tags":497},[125],[27,125],[27],{"code":114,"score":98,"supported":47,"title":499,"abstract":500,"tags":501},[130],[103,130],[103],{"code":33,"score":13,"supported":47,"title":503,"abstract":504,"tags":507},[],[136,50,137,505,506],"climate resilience","waterlogging",[104],{"code":509,"score":85,"supported":47,"title":510,"abstract":511,"tags":514},"H2",[],[512,513],"土壤","soil",[],{"code":148,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":516,"abstract":517,"tags":518},[],[152],[],{"code":520,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":521,"abstract":522,"tags":524},"B4",[],[523],"月季",[],{"code":526,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":527,"abstract":528,"tags":530},"C",[],[529],"livestock",[],{"code":532,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":533,"abstract":534,"tags":536},"C3",[],[535],"poultry",[],{"code":538,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":539,"abstract":540,"tags":542},"E4",[],[541],"food safety",[],{"code":544,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":545,"abstract":546,"tags":548},"F4",[],[547],"除草",[],{"code":141,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":550,"abstract":551,"tags":552},[],[145],[],{"code":280,"score":46,"supported":47,"title":554,"abstract":555,"tags":556},[],[281],[],[558,559],"El Niño 小农户 粮食安全","ICPAC 季节预报 肯尼亚","ElNiño小农户粮食安全-5185","10.18697\u002Fajfand.155.ed182",{"doi":561,"openalex_id":563,"authors":564,"venue":478,"cited_by_count":67,"oa_url":568,"card":569,"direction":80,"ingested_from":82},"W7222630373",[565],{"name":566,"orcid":567},"Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0005-8344-9093","https:\u002F\u002Fajfand.net\u002FVolume26\u002FNo8\u002FEditorialVol26No8.pdf",{"tldr":570,"method":571,"finding":572,"direction":347,"opportunity":573},"分析厄尔尼诺导致肯尼亚西部降雨过量对小农粮食安全的影响","基于ICPAC季节气候预测与厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子分析","降雨过多且分布不均会引发洪涝、土壤侵蚀，反而威胁小农粮食安全","可结合遥感与农户调查，量化极端降雨时空分布对小农产量与粮食安全的非线性影响","2026-10-17T23:30:36.130973Z"]