Low-Altitude Economy Development and High-Quality Agricultural Development in China: Spatial and Nonlinear Evidence

Abstract

Using panel data for 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper examines the relationship between low-altitude economy development (LAEDL) and high-quality agricultural development (HQAD), with particular attention to spatial linkages and nonlinear features. The empirical analysis combines a two-way fixed-effects model, a spatial Durbin model (SDM), and a panel threshold model. The results show that the LAEDL is significantly and positively associated with HQAD, and this finding remains robust across a series of robustness checks, instrumental-variable estimation, and a difference-in-differences design that exploits the 2016 national general-aviation policy. Further analysis indicates that HQAD exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation across provinces. The spatial spillover of LAEDL itself, however, is not statistically robust once its local and spatially lagged terms are considered, so we refrain from strong claims about cross-provincial spillovers. The nonlinear analysis suggests that the positive association between the low-altitude economy and HQAD is stronger in provinces with higher levels of economic development and urbanization, whereas the association weakens at high levels of LAEDL itself, a pattern consistent with diminishing marginal returns; the statistical evidence for threshold effects should be interpreted with caution. The moderation analysis further suggests that industrial upgrading and urbanization strengthen the contribution of the LAEDL to HQAD. By incorporating spatial dependence and conditional heterogeneity, this study provides new empirical evidence on the role of emerging aviation-based technologies in agricultural transformation.

1 Introduction

Global agriculture has been rapidly shifting toward greater precision, intelligence, and environmental sustainability, and technological progress has become a central driver of productivity growth and agricultural modernization (; ). In this context, low-altitude technologies—particularly drones, remote sensing, and low-altitude logistics—have increasingly emerged as an important component of agricultural innovation because of their applications in precision crop protection, field monitoring, and agricultural product distribution (; ; ). In a broader sense, the low-altitude economy extends well beyond the use of drones alone. It encompasses general aviation manufacturing, drone R&D and operations, low-altitude logistics networks, and the associated infrastructure and governance systems, all of which are becoming more deeply integrated into agricultural production systems.

The existing literature on technological progress and agricultural development has mainly focused on the Green Revolution, the diffusion of improved varieties, and the impact of information and communication technologies on agricultural production and market efficiency. , , for example, emphasize the importance of technology adoption and learning mechanisms in agricultural growth. and show that mobile communication technologies can improve agricultural market performance by reducing information asymmetry. , , and further show that broadband Internet, e-commerce, and digital transformation have significant effects on employment, the rural economy, and agricultural productivity. Compared with this literature on digital technologies, however, there is still little macro-level empirical evidence on whether emerging aviation-based technologies—particularly the low-altitude economy as a more comprehensive techno-industrial system—can significantly improve HQAD. Existing studies have concentrated more on application scenarios for agricultural drones, crop monitoring, and farmers’ adoption behavior (; ; ), while regional-level economic consequences remain underexplored.

More specifically, three limitations remain in the literature when identifying the agricultural effects of the low-altitude economy. First, most studies treat regions as independent units and pay limited attention to the spatial connectedness of agricultural development and technology diffusion, even though spatial econometric research has long shown that ignoring spatial dependence may lead to incomplete or biased inference (; ; ). In agricultural economics, prior work has shown that agricultural development, technology adoption, and green transformation may all involve substantial spatial spillovers (; ; ). Second, existing analyses typically assume homogeneous and linear technology effects, whereas the benefits of technology diffusion often depend on regional absorptive capacity and development stage, implying potentially strong conditional heterogeneity (; ; ). Third, from an identification perspective, the literature still lacks a systematic framework that combines endogeneity treatment, robustness checks, spatial analysis, and nonlinear testing for the low-altitude economy–agriculture nexus.

Against this backdrop, we use panel data for 30 Chinese provincial-level administrative regions over 2012–2022 to investigate the relationship between LAEDL and HQAD, with a further focus on spatial spillovers and nonlinear features. More specifically, the study addresses three questions: (i) Is the low-altitude economy positively associated with HQAD? (ii) Does this association display cross-regional spatial linkages? (iii) And does the strength of the association vary with regional economic development and urbanization? To answer these questions, we construct a two-way fixed-effects model, a spatial Durbin model, and a panel threshold model, thereby providing a more systematic empirical assessment of how emerging aviation-based technologies shape agricultural transformation (; ; ).

This paper contributes to the literature in three respects. First, it extends the literature on technological progress and agricultural transformation by examining the agricultural role of the low-altitude economy from a provincial, macro-regional perspective. While prior research has focused primarily on the Green Revolution, mobile communication, the Internet, e-commerce platforms, and digital transformation (, ; ; ; ; ; ), work on the low-altitude economy has largely remained at the level of drone applications and micro-level adoption decisions (; ; ). This paper adds macro-regional evidence on how a broader aviation-based industrial form matters for agriculture.

Second, the paper introduces a spatial econometric framework into the analysis of the low-altitude economy and HQAD. Spatial economics has shown that regional economic activities often exhibit substantial dependence and spillovers, implying that non-spatial models may misstate the relationships of interest (; ; ). Related studies in agricultural economics likewise document spatial correlation in technology diffusion, agricultural ecological efficiency, and green development (; ). Building on this literature, the paper examines not only the local association between the low-altitude economy and HQAD but also its potential spatial spillovers; ultimately, we document robust spatial dependence in HQAD but no statistically robust spillover of LAEDL itself.

Third, the paper examines the nonlinear and conditional nature of the relationship between the low-altitude economy and agricultural development. The absorptive-capacity literature stresses that the economic payoff to new technologies depends on the recipient’s existing knowledge base, institutional setting, and resource endowments (). At the macro level, technology gains may also vary across development stages (; ). Prior studies have widely used threshold models to identify nonlinear effects in agriculture and the digital economy (; ; ). This paper accordingly investigates the threshold and moderating roles of economic development, urbanization, and industrial structure in shaping the agricultural effect of the low-altitude economy.

2 Literature review and theoretical analysis

2.1 Digitalization, intelligent technologies, and agricultural development

A growing body of research suggests that digital and intelligent technologies are becoming important drivers of agricultural modernization. argues that digital innovations can increase agricultural productivity while simultaneously reducing environmental footprints and improving resilience. Along the same line, examine the relationship between information and communication technologies and agricultural land and labor productivity from global and regional perspectives, and find a stable positive association between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) diffusion and agricultural productivity. Using micro data from Chinese farmers, and further show that ICT use significantly improves the technical efficiency of smallholders. , using the policy shock generated by U.S. rural broadband grants, also find that improved digital infrastructure raises agricultural productivity. Taken together, these studies indicate that digital technologies do much more than change access to information; they may systematically affect agricultural development by reducing transaction costs, improving decision-making, and enhancing resource allocation.

In terms of technological form, agricultural digitalization is no longer confined to information access alone. Rather, it increasingly involves sensing, recognition, analysis, and execution throughout the production chain. argue that edge artificial intelligence can enhance efficiency, quality, and sustainability across agricultural production, processing, storage, and transportation. show that digital innovations are reshaping how sustainability in food systems is monitored, reported, and verified. Consistent with this line of work, show in a systematic review that precision agriculture has already accumulated relatively strong evidence of input reduction and environmental improvement. This implies that low-altitude technologies—such as drones, remote sensing, low-altitude monitoring, and data transmission—can be understood as a further deepening of digital and precision agriculture. Their effects are therefore unlikely to be confined to a single operational link and may instead influence productivity, green development, and industrial coordination simultaneously.

2.2 Extending the literature: from digital agriculture to the low-altitude economy

Although the literature has provided substantial evidence that digital technologies and precision agriculture improve agricultural performance, most existing studies focus on ICT use, digital infrastructure, extension design, or specific precision-agriculture tools. Much less is known about how a more complex technology–industry configuration affects HQAD at the regional level. emphasizes the broader opportunities and policy implications of digital innovation; and focus on the effects of ICT and broadband infrastructure on farm efficiency and agricultural productivity; , , and emphasize the sustainability value of digital sensing, intelligent recognition, and precision agriculture. Compared with these studies, the low-altitude economy is not a single technology. Rather, it is an integrated industrial form that combines low-altitude equipment, remote-sensing data, flight services, logistics organization, and infrastructure provision. Its influence is therefore likely to be more systemic and more regional in nature.

In the context of HQAD, the low-altitude economy may operate through at least three channels. First, in production, drone-based crop protection, low-altitude remote sensing, and intelligent monitoring can improve input precision, reduce labor costs, and enhance the timeliness of farm decision-making. Second, in circulation, the combination of low-altitude logistics and digital platforms may shorten delivery radii and response times, thus improving supply-chain coordination. Third, in governance and service provision, the LAEDL is often accompanied by parallel improvements in equipment supply, data processing, maintenance services, and institutional support, thereby offering broader support for agricultural quality upgrading. Accordingly, the impact of the low-altitude economy on HQAD should not be understood solely through the lens of single-point technology adoption, but rather within a broader framework in which technology, industry, and institutions are jointly coupled. This perspective is consistent with the systemic view of digital agriculture emphasized by , , and .

2.3 Spatial linkages, technology diffusion, and regional externalities

The economic consequences of agricultural technologies are not confined to individual production units or single regions. They are often accompanied by diffusion effects and spatial externalities. , for example, use social-network changes generated by church mergers in the U.S. Midwest and show that expanded social ties significantly increase fertilizer adoption, highlighting the networked nature of technology diffusion. similarly show in a randomized trial from Myanmar that digitally supported extension improves farmers’ knowledge acquisition and input-use behavior, and that the effects vary across extension designs. These studies imply that the impacts of agricultural technologies depend not only on the technologies themselves, but also on information networks, organizational carriers, and regional linkages. Because flight services, remote sensing, and low-altitude logistics all exhibit strong cross-regional mobility, the agricultural effects of the low-altitude economy are likely to extend beyond any single province.

Importantly, spatial connectedness does not necessarily imply one-way positive spillovers. show that participation in agri-environmental schemes affects not only enrolled farmland but also non-enrolled plots, generating spillovers. identify strong agglomeration externalities in seafood exports and show that regional clustering affects firms through different margins. These studies suggest that interregional linkages may produce knowledge diffusion, organizational coordination, and scale economies, but they may also generate resource competition, factor siphoning, and market crowding-out. This possibility is especially relevant for the low-altitude economy. Leading regions may stimulate surrounding agricultural development through technological diffusion and service radiance, yet they may also absorb scarce talent, capital, and infrastructure resources, thereby intensifying competitive pressure on neighboring regions. For this reason, both spatial spillovers and spatial competition need to be incorporated into the analytical framework.

These mechanisms can be organized around two established bodies of theory. Technology-diffusion theory holds that the productivity gains from a new technology spread gradually through space and social networks rather than appearing everywhere at once (; ), so the agricultural payoff of the low-altitude economy should depend on how quickly low-altitude equipment, operating standards, and shared service providers diffuse from leading provinces to their neighbors. Knowledge-spillover theory, in turn, shows that R&D and innovative activity generate geographically localized externalities (; ), which—together with the spatial-econometric tradition (; )—implies that provincial agricultural quality is unlikely to be spatially independent. Taken together, these theories motivate a causal pathway in which regional low-altitude industrial capacity raises local agricultural quality directly and, through diffusion and spillovers, is associated with the agricultural performance of neighboring regions.

2.4 Conditional heterogeneity, absorptive capacity, and nonlinear effects

The literature also shows that the benefits of agricultural technologies are strongly conditional. Using randomized experimental data, find substantial heterogeneity in the economic impact of integrated pest management for mango fruit flies. likewise show that ICT improves technical efficiency more strongly among farmers who were initially less efficient. further demonstrate that different digitally supported extension designs generate different outcomes in terms of knowledge improvement and input use. These findings imply that technologies do not affect all regions or actors with equal intensity. Rather, their effects are conditioned by existing resource endowments, infrastructure, organizational capacity, and the institutional environment.

Extending this insight to the low-altitude economy suggests that its contribution to HQAD is also likely to be nonlinear. Regions with higher levels of economic development often possess better digital infrastructure, stronger equipment-support capacity, and more mature agricultural service systems, making it easier to convert low-altitude technologies into realized production gains. Regions with higher urbanization and more advanced industrial structures also tend to enjoy stronger factor mobility, better organizational coordination, and more complete complementary services, all of which facilitate the deeper integration of the low-altitude economy into agricultural production systems. , , and all highlight the importance of infrastructure, technological environments, and institutional support as prerequisites for the productive use of digital technologies. Hence, the effect of the low-altitude economy on HQAD is unlikely to be linear and homogeneous; rather, it is likely to depend strongly on regional absorptive capacity and development stage.

This conditional pattern is best understood through absorptive-capacity theory, which argues that the ability to convert external technology into realized gains depends on the recipient’s prior knowledge base, infrastructure, and complementary capabilities (). Applied to our setting, low-altitude industrial capacity should translate into agricultural quality only where provinces have crossed a threshold of digital infrastructure, human capital, and agricultural-service organization; below that threshold the same industrial capacity yields little measurable agricultural return. This logic provides the theoretical basis for the threshold and moderation specifications below, in which economic development, urbanization, and industrial upgrading govern the strength of the LAEDL–HQAD relationship.

2.5 Theoretical framework and research hypotheses

2.5.1 Conceptual clarification

Before specifying the hypotheses, we clarify the core constructs to avoid conceptual ambiguity. We distinguish the low-altitude economy as an industrial sector from low-altitude agricultural technology as an application scenario. Following the emerging literature on the low-altitude economy (), we define the low-altitude economy as an integrated techno-industrial system organized around the use of civil low-altitude airspace, encompassing general-aviation and UAV manufacturing, drone R&D and operation, low-altitude logistics and flight services, and the supporting infrastructure and governance arrangements. Our explanatory variable, the LAEDL, accordingly measures the regional capacity of this industrial system, rather than the intensity of any single on-farm application such as drone-based crop protection. Low-altitude agricultural technology, by contrast, refers to the deployment of low-altitude tools within agricultural production and circulation, and is only one of the channels through which the low-altitude economy may influence agriculture.

Following the now-standard operationalization in the Chinese agricultural-economics literature (; ), we define HQAD as agricultural development that is simultaneously innovation-driven, internally coordinated, environmentally green, externally open, and socially shared. This conceptualization, grounded in the new development philosophy, motivates the five-dimension measurement system reported in [Appendix A](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-foo